pasnownut

I pay attention to trends my friend...not verbatim outputs...no matter how I like or dislike them.

watching the progression, it is bowing to the King......and really should bring confidence up if the trend continues, as it's now only a few small moves away from dynamite.

whew....GFS trended towards Euro. That was big IMO. Still needs work, but is already workable. I'm glad to toss the ICON.

Im moving to cashtown.....found an abandoned house w/ nice weather station

I personally am not a fan of B's, and when i see primary tickin NW, it puts us in a scary spot (thinking thermal boundary). We'll get WAA thump, but its then sit and wait for thermals to recover and coastal to take over. I like a more consolidated look w/ primary into WV and not NW Ohio which also aids in quicker transfer. Edit...Only dislike because of the stress factors involved in gettin it right....but love em when they work. Clean A's are much easier, but pattern seems impossible to find anymore.

Icon did not start the nooners off well. ticked nw w/ primary and coastal pops east and was true miller b jump for ctp. coastal still did alright but not a big crowd pleaser IMO Cashtown....please send address.

I've tried to forget about him....he often pissed in my cheerios. and was right in doing so....

You know...if that happens at noon....I'd relocate rather swiftly......

I wish I couldn't agree w/ this, but in truth I cant agree more. LSV is the sacrificial lamb of the forum when we are staring down the barrel of a doozy and it looks like the guns are being turned our way

spits coffee while reading

You know they'll be last to the dance. Almost always are.

Just looked at 12 NAM as its basically hitting the west coast. It initialized at 1000mb in basically exact location and HP in alberta came in at 1045 where most had it at 1043. That said, its a good start IMO.

look at qpf distributions over last 24 hours. One can already see where the models think the ccb's/defo bands will set up, and thats often west and north once the precip hits the bumps in the geography (mtns). Its basically lake effect in reverse fashion. In truth, given whats being shown, I'm down w/ whatever. Just nice to be looking at a storm of such magnitude. Only ask is that it survives the late week 2 day warmup before we go back to winter next weekend....but I'm getting way ahead of myself.

we mixed in 93 and 16 didnt in the 2010 twins or 96 (if memory serves) Yeah, we likely have to sacrifice for all you true centrals to cash in....were nice like that. But just once in a while, a pure snow bomb and not worrying about changeovers is nice to have down here. edit - lol. looks like trainer and i still have good memories in our old age.

Just confirmed the 6z euro eps members are se of the op. We good.

x2. Its so fun when we have stuff like this to track. I think the retrograde/stall will only be realized starting tonight. IF that look holds, it might get a little crazy in here, even in Lanco. Any further inland tho, and I start running outta wiggle room.

Thats comforting for us LSV folk, but as you suggest, its a great storm just as the op presents it. Its a little to early to be nitpickin anyway (as i currently am guilty of doing - lol) If all holds today and tonight, its going to be fun to see this play out. and as i suggested yesterday, the pattern looks like more chances in the coming weeks. Just loving having winter around.

Goalposts narrowing with all of us in them. just need euro to stop the northern ticks. As cold is on the way out that’s a concern, but I’m just being picky right now and I don’t want us to fail.

And to add to that the retrograde as depicted would give ample time for ccb’s/deform to really do its thingy. models should start to show that soon.

In truth that was a notable jump north. not concerned.... yet.

Did that yesterday!! well done overnight crew!!

0z had 999mb and 12 had 992 just a tick south @ OBX. My gut says thats part of what we saw today.

Thats why i posted. Its called wiggle room and as you know, some of us dont often get that (and still may not as its 4 days out).

If this storm happens as modeled....we may never let him leave again. Hi bubbles.....! We missed you

said it yesterday, thats a win for me. Im not expecting what the Euro just showed, but many solutions show long duration, so thats a win no matter what the snowstick measures.