pasnownut

I'll put what i think is a "fun" battle out there as 2 camps seem formed on our board. Camp 1 - seems to think too much cold is bad and leads t suppression depression. Camp 2 - says how much of that modeled cold has come to light in the last few years? To further the point/debate, I'd love to see stats on % of storms that came north inside of 48 to 72 vs how many ended up south inside same time frame? Thats what I/some have been driving at. I'd wager wmspt's money (since hes got the most snow chips right now) that 75% or more came N and not S in said timeframe.

"It looks like it's headed west for sure - fun to track if it happens." Hence my confused emoji, but I totally agree on the way too early part...... hence my 300 mile move in 1 run post. NOONE knows whether this cuts for Chicago, or Columbia SC. 500's inspire little confidence (looking at GFS vs EURO. but I'd say that ENS guidance looks more suppressed for GEPS/GEFS vs ridgy on EPS.

Preach it man....preach it..

Its doing better than the GFS's 1 run jump. That gorilla at 168 ONLY moved 300 miles from 75 miles S of LA coastline to central GA...... It's a lock.

FWIW, GFS says the sunday deal just came a lot closer to looking like a decent event forum wide (verbatim I taint, but thats par for my decent snowstorm course-lol.)

Nice. Congrats. Hope you like snow enough to brighten your spirits.

Yeah I got excited when I saw some of the posts about this little tongue of moisture....but it went poof right over my head i guess...

CMC ticked N for rd1 and just looks a bit less robust for rd2, but beyond that it is just like being in a batting cage w/ snowballs in da machine. We've got many chances at fun no matter how they stack up. That's the BIG win for me. I never expected to land all of the digital snow we see on models. i just want chances....and that we have.

all done here. I counted like 7 pingers. hehe

We know. IMO its not about whos right and whos wrong (which sometimes seems that's whats going on in here). Except for a couple red taggers (who also are faced w/ the same challenges...but they get paid for it), we are all a bunch of weenies throwing our amateur opinions out there to discuss something we enjoy. Some of us try to back it up w/some logic....right or wrong. That's the fun of it (for me anyway). We all learn from one another, and that's the fun of the convo on a weather discussion board...notsomuch whos right and whos wrong. Of course its a possibility and its great to bring up any points to discuss because as amateurs....thats what we are here to do. I think he knows that. Beyond Thursday, nooners are spilt between N and S, so noone really knows whos right and whos wrong, but as I said earlier, you need to blend knowledge/tendencies/logic and not just look at a map and say...aint happnenin. Hope that makes sense and doesnt come off snooty, but some of us put time and effort into our reasoning cause thats the fun for many here.

couple pingers fallin In Etown.... AWESOME......lol Congrats to all the northers that "cashed in" today. Seein how a few days ago this was a southern Pa deal...thx for stealin our snow.

I think thats the best takeaway for right now. Lotsa chit in da chute.

yeah it moved LP about 500 miles in one run. lol You'd think w/ the "stable" arctic boundary that it'd be a bit easier for the models. next up (rd#1 to me) trended better, and I still think enough time for #2 to correct north some, and thats about as far as I'm comfy in thinking right now.

GFS says what part 2..........lol slides right, but you can add GFS to the mix for the weekend.

part 3 looks rather tasty on Z German house model. Coming back to the weekend coastal dealeo....

Fwiw..ICON just went south for part 2.....oh boy. IMO less interaction w/ NS energy made it just slide right

I think you'll be just fine for the next show.

It sure looked that way several days ago. If one looks at all models for consensus, ICON GFS and CMC have shown that for a while. Meso's for part 1 look better because they are at closer range....part 2 still coming into focus, and likely to adjust north in next 24 hours. And for those that say "yeah but it still doesnt show snow IMBY", you have to think incrementally when parsing over runs...and think about model bias, logical corrections and timeframe left for said corrections.

Nooner NAM's for next gig rd1 looking better and rd2 looking like its a bit north of 6z. Plenty of time to get it back to CTP.

"tick time" has commenced. 6z 12z

Yeah looks good for them. Glad Ahoff or whatever his name is is getting some. Probably why hes not on here b!tchin about not getting any snow. He's quietly hoggin right now. lol

Nothing here in Akron. (Didn’t expect much if any so no biggie) next.......

Peeps need to remember that cold of late is often over modeled, and with that in mind there is usually a typical correction north wrt storm trajectories. It’s been a seasonal tendency for a while now. I dont “fret” over any cold that shows on the models. I just want it to show which means it’s going to be around.

........Except for tomorrow’s event that just “ticked” north on most mesos.

Ya can’t shovel potential but that’s a shit ton of it verbatim. Now if we can even get 50% of it it would be a great period.