pasnownut

6z 12z

Nooner German house model showin bump N into southern 1/2 of Pa. 6z 12z

wow. I had snowmobile out last night through yard and into fields and had plenty of snow (but yeah a few spots around pine trees were bare as always. )

some think my posts are meaningless WITH snow maps

yup yup.... never expected all of em to hit, but even half as modeled is quite a decent run considering where we thought we'd be headed 6-8 weeks ago. Its a big win for many of us.

PLEASSE take it back. Superstorm/Festus/and a few others along w/ me would be glad to get rid of it.

fwiw entire WRF suits shows a notable bumb N w/ qpf. I just showed the nicest of the bunch as the weenie in me comes out

Hoping Hump day delivers smiles to many faces for many reasons. Here may be one of em' as hi res models start to do their thingy. 0z 12z

You nailed it. S and SW events seem to be a little easier for that to happen. Thats one of the reasons I like A's over B's as that variable is negated greatly down here in the LSV. theres nothing worse than looking at a big blue blob headed our way from the W and Mag, then Bubbles, then Cashtown all are covered in puffy parachutes.....only to watch it go POOF as it gets to Anotherman, and then were left w/ enough flakes to count w/o taking shoes off.

agreed. We've both seen it enough. Based on geography alone, we really struggle in Lanco for any W or NW to E oriented events really are tough down here SE of the mtns.

I wanna believe, but feel this is overdone. As you know we often juice up only to dry out a bit once we approach go time. That said, it brings many of us back into something which is a win in my book. Laurels and S Central look to be prime spots for the next week.

Look at that damn snow hole in lanco again. Its like Voyager shoved his snow dome due S 60 miles over my casa. WTF!! Problem i have w/ it is that the last storm modeled a hole over my house....and the damn thing verified. UUGGGGHHHHHHH.

lol yeah, any that do this w/ regularity should know that one should not trust NAM'ins that look great on screen. I use/show for frozen potential and consensus for qpf distribution and whos getting sumthin and who isnt. Looks like overnights continued to tick north and lower 1/3 of state is in the game. Works for me as i never expected much for rd1 but now have to put more weight on it as rd2 is S of MD special. I'm just gonna dig multiple events comin at us in the next 7-10 days. Edit, and now that i've caught up in full...looks like my mind is in the right place after reading your assessments. Enjoy the show. Your in a great spot to do so.

18z 0z Still time for some of us IMO

Blizzard go look at NAM. Looking north and more robust qpf wise early on.

I’d b giddy with a 3-5” refresher.

First part is painful truth. For those that follow tellies/base state, we are kickin beyond coverage for what shoulda/coulda been a ratter. But for that second part, most of those snows didnt go poof....they went north or east...and thats the truth. lol

Agreed, and some of them are sitting in the catbird seat for snow....you know... the snow they were not getting 3 days before they got it. Yeah....that snow. It boggles the mind....well my tiny one anyway.

I'll put what i think is a "fun" battle out there as 2 camps seem formed on our board. Camp 1 - seems to think too much cold is bad and leads t suppression depression. Camp 2 - says how much of that modeled cold has come to light in the last few years? To further the point/debate, I'd love to see stats on % of storms that came north inside of 48 to 72 vs how many ended up south inside same time frame? Thats what I/some have been driving at. I'd wager wmspt's money (since hes got the most snow chips right now) that 75% or more came N and not S in said timeframe.

"It looks like it's headed west for sure - fun to track if it happens." Hence my confused emoji, but I totally agree on the way too early part...... hence my 300 mile move in 1 run post. NOONE knows whether this cuts for Chicago, or Columbia SC. 500's inspire little confidence (looking at GFS vs EURO. but I'd say that ENS guidance looks more suppressed for GEPS/GEFS vs ridgy on EPS.

Preach it man....preach it..

Its doing better than the GFS's 1 run jump. That gorilla at 168 ONLY moved 300 miles from 75 miles S of LA coastline to central GA...... It's a lock.

FWIW, GFS says the sunday deal just came a lot closer to looking like a decent event forum wide (verbatim I taint, but thats par for my decent snowstorm course-lol.)

Nice. Congrats. Hope you like snow enough to brighten your spirits.

Yeah I got excited when I saw some of the posts about this little tongue of moisture....but it went poof right over my head i guess...