pasnownut

If the "normal" north trend commences....it'll be congrats Wspt....and I'll be moist n not white.

said something about this the other day, and think that this is largely why we have a storm to chat about. Well timed dip, but instead of a scoop, we may need shovels

lol's. Was just a comment, and not a pointed one whatsover. All good. Carry on pal. Headed home for happy hour....give me something to drink in celebration over (other than the friggin week being over).

Yeah, thats gonna be the way to the promise land. With no help from AO, possible neutralish look on NAO for this timeframe could support HP being a bit further south doing its "dirty work" and helping some of us out. I'm keying on NAO as it can come and go in short notice, so models do have a chance at further correcting based on that alone IMO.

what loop are you looking at??

Gotta say thats a nice look, but HP location is gonna be critical. me thinks verbatim, thin strip of decent snows (but some to the south get on the board). OTOH if the HP scoots too soon (GFS)....it's coldish tears falling from the sky. Nothin there to anchor it, but hey, timing IS everything.

dude, if the Euro wants the crown back, its gotta earn it. If this next week gig happens, it will help for sure. Historically when Euro/CMC/UKie are seeing something similar, it raises ones eyebrow, so what the heck. I'll be happy to wait a few more days before closing the shades, and then hope that they aren't closed for long. December snow is my favorite.

Good news is that its not going poof....so hey, maybe we sneak one in before we get the shorts out......(or for some, just keep em on).

Nothing like a southern slider and then 50 deg here waiting for the next cold front to wash rinse repeat..right. We saw this several times last year.

3 days into met winter is no time to punt anything. You were awake last year correct. Odds can be defied. We all like quick starts and pray for endless days of snow, but, like many other times, we just have to be patient.

some said early start, but others have punted december and said around new years into Jan might be first real go time for winter lovers.

Then I'm in good company. Hope for next week would be deeper trough post Monday, or quicker ejection out of midwest for your storm to have a chance. Keep an eye on NAO and if it keeps the neutral look, stale cold is better than no cold (even GFS hints at N Pa seeing ice). IF any of these things happen, then the scorned KIng and his minions may briefly rule the day for next week. While MJO plots are met w/ some skepticism of late, in warming times, they are something I hold a little more weight with. I've been on record of being a fan of AO as my favorite indicie for winter fun round here (that teacher dude in the MA forum used to roast me often about it- it seemed to work, so I'll claim a small victory), and when that happens (or our NAO buddy), then I get a bit excited. JMO's though. I'm not afraid to lay out my stance, cause that's partly why I'm here, to discuss learn, share, whatever. No cats needed.

Transient cold shots much the same as we are seeing now. We need wholesale changes discussed yesterday to get cold to hold. Sorry, just not gonna do it in current view. Yes, like next week, there can be well timed events to keep hope alive, but verbatim, your cold on the 13th is replaced w/ SE flow on the 15th w/ pig ridge. As much as I HATE being a Debbie, I'm just trying to temper hopes and expectations for a little while. There absolutely can be an event that gets us and everyone can roast the hell outta me. No problem, but as sad as it is to type it, I'm standing where I am until larger changes start to show upstream.

Went through your area yesterday and was surprised to see snow on the ground. I’d say between northumberland and Danville is when it faded to nothing but a trace in shaded areas.

I was watching the HP on the GFS and it was way too far east and return flow cooked us. Lets hope for this one to trend better.

Arguably one of the more arrogant personas I've ever come across. I'm all about good spirited debate, but when someone constantly speaks in "absolute" terms.....that's just poor form.

Duly noted....I try to forget about that MA forum persona as much as possible.

LOL. Cant wait for that one.... Models typically correct to tellies, and not tellies to the models.....and have shown this many times when that a look from a week out sometimes goes poof....as its often just a correction to the base state. NAO next week shows enough variance to keep an eye out but overall....its shades closed for me and A/C for Trainer. Those who "know me" here, know I rarely do this, cause I like some here love the search for snow.....that said, the ROI just looks negligible at best. Props if you find a way to the promise land though....I'll be first in line to follow pal, and if you see something, please share it, cause I'm happy to add it to my bag of snow trix.

It is definitely no longer the king....just a jester like the others.

NBD. I think we both know enough to not put all eggs in ANY one basket, but as I prefer medium/long range, I'll say that the tellies have done far more right than wrong when using a blend. MJO in 3-4-5 just doesnt get it done without help from AO/NAO domains (again, NAO is saving grace for next week - IF and only IF the neutral looks have any merit). Otherwise please break out your secret santa, and let him beat up on the voodo doll.

Then I hope you have a bigger voodoo doll than Voyager, or some other secret source that we don't know about, cause the argument towards warm....as much as I hate it.....cannot be passed by, and won't correct in 4-5 hours. Subtle differences (NAO as its the only tellie that can save mid next week)may help, but the big picture is not a pretty one, and history tells many of us that things are not aligned for the next couple weeks. Sure hope we can sneak something in next week though.

AO heading + NAO heading neutral, but likely +ish PNA heading - MJO looping twds 6 and hopefully 7 says I picked a nice time to enjoy the snow, and looks like if verified, I'll have much time to not look at every model run for a while and get to other enjoyable things. CMC is best case as bubbles stated a bit ago, but not likely as its not representative of what telllies suggest should happen. Only way CMC has a prayer is if the NAO takes the low road and stays neutral for a bit. -PNA isnt the kiss of death if we have AO helping, but thats not looking good, so trough in the west looks believable. Voyager musta got another voodo doll and gave it to Canderson to poke at while he's on vacation. Just dont let the cat play w/ it when pins are in it.

I can see that. You might have a whack at your 60. I hope cloud deck hangs tight here in LSV.

I've just spent the last 5 days w/ snow on the ground (4" when I left the cabin yesterday). Was great to play in it. Hoping Blizz and Loosetoe are onto some fun for next week. I peeked at GEFS ad did not like the look at the end, but really have not had any time to dive into where we may be headed. Hoping to do that this weekend.

thanks....was scratching my head. Think he might be practicing a bit early w/ the egg nog.