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pasnownut

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Posts posted by pasnownut

  1. 43 minutes ago, paweather said:

    You downer haha I’ve already set my expectations extremely low -2% we see a significant snowstorm :D

    once again I find myself thinking of a previously used polishing turd analogy when looking at our "winter" future.

    Yall know thats not how I roll, and I'm usually looking for the way to find snow, but odds look rather low for a flush hit of something appreciable (and not a sneaky cartopper like I barely had this morning).  I want to be wrong in the worst way, and I'll bud in line on the Blizz train if we can find something.  Till then....just going to take a chill pill n roll w/ it. 

    I've got a trip to Maine w/ 23 other guys hanging out there in a couple weeks, but am fearful that too may be in trouble if Ens guidance has a clue to the misty distant future (Gadomski ism)

      

    • Like 1
  2. 32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    Easily my least favorite season. I don't like severe and I'm depressed that winter's over and is once again a long way off, so weatherwise...meh.

    I do love to garden so there's that. :) 

    For me i think its more the winters over part.  My dog passed, so I dont worry about mud like I used to.  Only thing worse than a bad winter is a late spring and cold that shoulda been here 2 months earlier than late march/april.  Like you...if snow aint stickin....I'll take it but its more of a bittersweet pill to swallow to me. 

    • Like 2
  3. 10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

    At this point, let's just get warm. This winter is finished.

    Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
     

    even though it's felt like winter often...if its not gonna snow...add me to the dung heap if Feb is gonna be more see saw and no snow.  I hate spring so lets get it over with so I can hop on the hog.  MORCH on...

    • Like 1
  4. 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said:

    Low was 23, and with the sun and a bit of a breeze, the temperature is not in a hurry of going up quick.

    I guess since were looking for ++'s in this "winter" at least we've not had a shut the shade blow torch...no matter what the temp departures show. 

    When its cold, its moderately cool, and when its warm....its just plain warm.  Despite the lack of white, I'm still sorta ok w/ the reality that it's felt like winter frequently.  Just doesnt look the part.

     

    • Like 3
  5. So I'm just gonna throw out that some Ens guidance surely doesnt look like the "end of winter".  Snowloversdelight.....hardly....but this looks like winter to me (and I was rather surprised to see this start showing up yesterday).  "See saw" temp swings looks appropriate to me.  I should be trolled for throwing a post 240 hr map out for disco, so I'll not post further beyond (which looks to warm) as thats way too far out to fret over. 

    gfs-ens_z500a_namer_44.png

    heres the opposing view.  Not sure how it ends up but as always stated 7 outta 10 times betting warm wins.

    gem-ens_z500a_namer_44.png

     

  6. 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

    Well, it looks like my prediction from last week of MDT ending as the third warmest January on record was correct, just barely.  But, my prediction of us getting measurable snowfall last night was not.  Radar looked half decent through the night but it just wasn't materializing on the ground.  Absolutely nothing at my house.  Surprised to hear Nut got some out towards the northeastern part of the county.  Well, things look to be a bit boring for a while.  Should give me time to present my MU snowfall study that I've been promising for weeks but haven't yet delivered on haha.

    I'm just a lucky guy....what can i say.  Was gonna take a pic, but it wasnt pic worthy to see white roofs.  Meh.  I posted obs above from my hood for any that think I'm further off my rocker than previously thought.

  7. 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    Good deal. Didn't seem like anything recordable fell north of the M/D line. 

    underperformer.......

    shocked arent ya?

     

    BUT........it did snow.  My wife said "look at the roofs - it snowed".  My response was underwhelming.

     

    also traffax was stating Adamstown and east was "slick" w/ numerous accidents into berks 

    edit - 17501

    01 07:53 N 7 10.00 Fair CLR 28 16     60% 21 NA 30.27 1025.3      
    01 06:53 N 8 10.00 Fair CLR 30 16 33 30 56% 22 NA 30.24 1024.3      
    01 05:53 NW 8 10.00 Overcast OVC100 32 19     59% 25 NA 30.22 1023.6      
    01 04:53 NW 8 10.00 Overcast OVC090 33 23     66% 26 NA 30.20 1023.1      
    01 03:53 NW 5 3.00 Light Snow Fog/Mist SCT048 SCT065 OVC080 33 29     85% 28 NA 30.18 1022.2      
    01 02:53 W 5 9.00 Overcast OVC047 33 28     82% 28 NA 30.19 1022.6      
    01 01:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC041 33 28     82% NA NA 30.18 1022.4      
    01 00:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC043 33 28 35 33 82% NA NA 30.18 1022.4  
    • Thanks 1
  8. 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

    The past several winters, especially this one, have been hard on the hill too. Not much lake effect and lots of thaws affecting them up there too. Many quitting the sled hobby because the winters have been so poor. The economy of the Tug is taking a beating.

    yeah my sledding (or chasing snow to do it) is not what it used to be....TONS of miles in vehicles towing trailers n sleds to get some miles in.  I spread my love of motorsports out to include a HD Street Glide and a Kawi Teryx UTV that get plenty more chances at being used.  I wish it werent that way, but like you suggest, many of us are just not putting what we did into the sleds anymore.  

    Tugs/upstate NY economy was hurting before the lean years as the taxes up there knocked the stuffing outta local economies and small towns.  Throw some bad snow years onto lean times (oh and a pandemic)....and the pic is not so rosey.  

    • Like 1
  9. 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

    Mrs. Snowman (that's a nod to @Itstrainingtime tehe) reports steady light snow on the home front.  Radar looks half decent. Might be able to get .1" in the books before we even get to the overnight "potential".  Hey, at least it looks like winter ha. 

    You can now add the HH NAM into the mix as it shows a touch of snow for us southern tier folks as we've been suggesting.  I was happy to see snow today and I'll be happy once again tomorrow (if I get outta bed as it's overnight).  

    • Like 1
  10. Steady light snow now in Etown.  

    No cavage but glad i nailed the forecast from 5 days out.  :lol:

    Still think tomorrow has enough potential to do the same thing as boundary really is stationary and another piece of energy is close enough by to our south to throw up enough qpf to get a "snow on snow" event here.  This always looked like an overruning set up from afar (last week) and thats why i suggested to keep an eye out for norther adjustments as we got closer. 

     

    • Like 1
  11. 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    Yes, and that's why I'm so impressed. 

    It was 37 here when I arrived at noon yesterday. The temp has fallen off 12 degrees over the past 21 hours with no increase...just a very slow but steady drop. Little Rock NWS commented this morning how impressive it is because the cold is overperforming all guidance they had. Sounds like they might extend the warning through Thursday AM as a 3rd round of precip comes in later tomorrow. 

    can you bring some of that "overperforming" weather back east?

    Please and thanks

     

    • Haha 1
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