pasnownut

52 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

with as crazy as my schedule is, I actually enjoy a rainy fall weekend. Forces me to not really do anything besides watch football for 2 straight days. 

cloudy cool fall days in autumn are some of my favorite things.  Enjoy.

looks like se 1/2 of pa should get some decent rain in the bucket.  Good to see.    My wife is in Bethany beach.  I told her to get on beach this morning and find a barstool this afternoon and enjoy time w/ gal pals.

Im looking forward to coffee on back porch of cabin and putting some miles on my legs in the mountains tomorrow morning . 

Have a great weekend wherever you are.   Life is good.

edit - Go STATE

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 50 here.  National high of 111 at Rio Grande Village, TX and low of 15 at a place called.......Ketchum, ID.  Pretty impressive national low for September.  We're getting to that time of year, some blue starting to pop on the models out west. 

Man, this system is hard to pin down.  Seems a bit unpredictable and dare I say disorganized.  Down this way, some good rainfall seems like a sure bet but man that forecast for State College is tough.  Could be damn near completely dry all day Saturday up there, a total washout, or anything in between.  Really tough call for them but hopefully things come into focus here as we get inside of 48 hours.  

15 for the low.  That IS impressive and quite the spread I might add.

headed to the cabin this weekend, so I'm hopeful were wet at home and smokin cirrus up there 

Looks like the nooners are keeping nothingburgers as their hot selling item on the weather menu.

Not sure if this look holds, but history likes to repeat, so be mindful. 

HP up north is not really stout, but might be enough to shunt the brunt to easter locals.

German house model well east.

NAM at 72-84...well.....its well outta its wheelhouse  

Just practicing for the upcoming months.

28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

In Lancaster, June was 1.45 BN followed by July and August which both were at a +1 - +3 AN. Pretty much right in line with Checo's maps above. 

For 2023, the alarming departures were over the winter, with January running at nearly a +10 followed  by a +9 for February. 

All of that data, whether it was very close to normal (this summer) or WAY above normal (this past winter) still came back to one general theme - the devil in the details has been our nighttime lows. It just does not cool off at night like it once did. 

wish this wasnt true, but its hard to dismiss.

26 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

How 'bout it.  Regardless of eventual outcome, I plan on mowing on Friday and laying down some fresh grass seed.  Plenty of patch work to do with two dogs, one of whom loves to dig ugh. 

mowed #dunnodontcare last night  (I really enjoy mowing - just being a smartass in the lawn and garden thread).

i have some serious patchwork that needs done.  Some asian grass has taken hold and i need to kill it, plus we are giving up on the garden and need to plant something other than the weeds that took residence. 

Now that kid is married and moved into his house, I can start taking care of mine again.  lol

Dogs and nice lawns are not often said in the same sentence.  Been there...did that.  Wish you luck pal.

21 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Longer look back from May through September to date for temperature departures from normal...not too toasty!!

cept for that one cherrypicked one...

In all seriousness, there is likely some undertone of validity to what Bradfords warming might suggest, but above maps keep us within normalish goalposts.  

If one looks hard enough, one can always find something to fit their "feelings". 

26 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

How long until the Canadian sobers up?  Also, what are the JMA and NAVGEM saying?  I demand answers!  But seriously, would be quite the coup for our friends up north.  

while its looking less wet here, I'm watching for tomorrow night or friday runs to have the "coming back" looks start to show.  Eastern 1/2 of the state should be ready for more grass (re)growing this weekend.

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

51 when I left the house. May have dropped another degree or two after I left. Hit 48 in the car through the rurals.  Beautiful crisp morning. River looks pristine from the train. 

cant ask for better days in early fall.  

Hope your hump day is a good one.

16 hours ago, canderson said:

I haven't'. I value my teeth too much to visit WV typically. 

WVA is the most beautiful state I've visited in the east.  Been there 2x and cant wait to get back.  Put aside the stereotypes that run amuck.  People we met were genuinely nice and welcoming.  You can find folks just as bad in your hood.  Take that Allison Hill walk Sauss suggests.  

since were doing a little model disco, I'll add that the Icon has jogged notably east of its prior 2 runs.  Not diggin too deep but as we look for trends, it went toward easter globals of earlier this morning.

seeing the play that Chubb got hurt, I didnt see anything ugly (supposedly the jumbo tron did show it).  What happened?  Knee cap/shin?

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

But I don't want reasonable, I  want rain! 

Then pick your model and hug the hell outta it.  

Good practice for the upcoming snow season.  

50 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If we get something close to this, I  think we could safely say the worm has turned with our pattern.

CMC evolution for this weekend looks wonky.  Not sure that I belive the dual HP structure in the land of the canooks is gonna force rd#1 ENE beyond our latitude.  GFS, Icon and Euro loops at a glance would seem more reasonable IMO.   

Son got married on saturday and weather was just fantastic.

Looks like a possible rainer for next weekend, but Im guessing subtle changes and maybe even further west jog is in play (looking at UL's.)

Good football weather....epsecially if a couch or bar is included , otherwise it may be a BROWNout.  

12 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

our "current" plan is to leave here at 8. should put us there by 10. My daughter ordered rain ponchos yesterday. I'll take a change of clothes. nothing sucks worse then driving home from State College soaked. we're in lot 11

Sounds like a good plan.  Yeah driving wet would suck.  

  Plenty of time for things to shift a bit.  Dont fret....yet.

52 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

.15" since sunset yesterday. NWS forecast as of 6pm last night was for 1-2" possible per attachment. Do you think anybody will have their pay docked? Lol And we're supposed to believe long range global computer guidance? 

P.s. Sorry for the long screenshot but Samsung's last update removed the simple screenshot option. More idiocy.

 

at least they are getting more consistent, as they now seem to be pulling the qpf rug out all year, and not just when snow is forecasted.  Not sure we find any solace in that, but it is wierd how with all of the advances, there is still alot of work to do in that regard.

2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

If it rains Friday and Saturday, i may weep. It can rain Sunday and all next week, just not Friday and Saturday

move in weekend for my kid, so I'm right w/ ya.  

41 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Jumping back to the Euro Seasonal, I would definitely not give up on December.  The only free maps the Euro site offers are world and N. Hemisphere views. As such, attached are the World 850 temp ensemble mean anomaly maps for December and January. Both months have us in the normal range with December closer to slightly AN and January closer to slightly BN. 

Thus, we could definitely score in December, mostly likely a single event like 12/82 where BWI had a coastal that dropped 6.7" with Biglerville at 2". And despite that event, BWI was still +3.4 degrees AN for December.

Finally, also attached is the 500mb anomaly for 12/82 that was butt ugly but still didn't prevent a coastal.

Yeah we gotta feel some kinda special if those maps verify.  To your point, if we can pull off a normalish December, I'd think many would be just fine w/ that.  While its not prime time, if its feeling seasonal, thats a big + in my book.  While we were sans snow...last year was the most normal feeling December that I can remember in a while.  Was nice.

Noone wants to revisit the mental images of @sauss06 in bermuda shorts for Christmas.  J/k buddy.  If anyone can pull it off, you can.

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

yep, this is the earliest in awhile that i have taken notice to the leaf drop. My 100+ year old lilacs are about 80% off.  

Yeah my plumb trees are over 50% dropped as well.  Forgot to mention them. 

No matter what, its early fall, and that means heat gets the top knocked off and longer nights (even though they run warm of late, still help.  Drought really kickin the early leaf drop for the maples (and others maybe?).  solid month ahead of schedule IMO.

22 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i came on to say i'm at 89. and i learned that nut is willing to paint our houses and Mitch (welcome back btw) said we're having a white christmas  

Maybe i had to many cerveza's over the 4 day weekend 

.  Good stuff.  Mitch's prognostication has a better chance of verifyin....just sayin.

Its great going into the kids fridge and robbin it blind of beer.  He's already bitchin abt it.  Life just got a little better as the tides have turned a tad. 

hes got me for cheap labor (ripping out carpets as well as rippin out steps and putting all new wood in as well, so i dont feel bad whatsoever.  1/2 case of beer for a 3 day work weekend fee is cheap imo. 

27 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Congratulations to your son. Now, where will the funeral for his penis be held? But seriously, congrats Nut!

LMAO....friggin hillarous (and likely true)....AFTER she has a couple kids (she wants that sooner than later.)

Thanks for the kind words.  Hoping all's well w/ your young fam.

25 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Well, this is what December 1986 and 2014, both Niños, looked like  and I'd take either one of the ensuing wintets. Warm Decembers in Niños is normal. 02' was unusual. 

 

 

and if memory serves, you can often lump a good chunk of fall onto the burn pile? You stat guys can correct me if I'm wrong.