pasnownut

I miss snow already.  

Got a feeling that I'll be cave dwelling this spring/summer.  Warmth is more enjoyable than it used to be, but I find little joy in searching for it, as its always around the corner.  I'll just be outside enjoying whatever comes my way.  I hope everyone here can do the same.  Good food for the soul.  

Also as we've historically seen the 1 sided slander, and it's going to be hard to just "sit back" and take it (like many of us have over the years), so out of respect, I'll just step away as well. My work is surely suffering (and it was expected), so it's probably best that I type less and work more.

I just hope we can all agree that something needed done, and there were always going to be winners and losers no matter how it is done.  I feel for those affected, and hope that as good ones are displaced, that the private sector snatches them up and their worth is realized. As I've helped to run a business, sat on a board of directors for 7 yrs., hired and fired, I now am a fully commission based employee.  Every month my numbers (report) is shared with all senior management....and while I may be in the cave this spring/summer....I surely can't hide in there, as it wont feed me and mine. I can understand the gravity of making difficult decisions... I've made them, and saw how it affected people.  It's never taken lightly.  

Ground truth is that facts and feelings don't always jive when the word "work" is being discussed. 

My best friend always says to our crew...especially the kids (mine included)...."they call it work for a reason....its your job".  Timely and really resonates...  

No matter where you sit, y'all are extended family to me, and welcome at my table.

TTFN

12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

DT calling people stupid...

Virginia had a snowstorm last week. Interestingly, I was following along in the Richmond-specific thread and the posters were sharing what the local forecasters were calling for...most were in the 3-6" ballpark for Richmond proper. DT was calling for 9-12" and was calling out the local forecasters for their "lack of understanding of what was about to happen."

Richmond's final official tally: 4"

Its a shame that his posting style is what it is....

I'll take 10 JB's over 1 DT.  at least jb admits when he busts.  

DT goes down scorched earth in a blaze if fire/smoke and just hammers peeps who call him out.

53 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Haha yes that's him.  I remember that avatar as well.  I don't recall getting any type of confirmation but I could be wrong.  I think you mentioned something vaguely about him posting in some forums but not sure.  In any case, I can finally let this rest ha. 

All good man.  All good.

If the pic shared is correct, I was wrong about his photo.  Just remember darkish theme.

3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yes, and I am still looking for someone to confirm the existence of a poster named UndertakersSon (went by UTS) from some far-flung weather board from many moons ago

Thought we covered that.  Yes, you are correct.  If memory serves his screen pic had some dark hooded grim reaperish kinda thing going on.  I remember him.

6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

we never met in person, but i am a excellent judge of character, my intuition has NEVER been wrong. You're a solid dude Mike! 

whattdya think of me......???

Dont answer that..... 

18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

 

 

Thank you. I went against what I always do when I'm around other people. I learned (very painfully) years ago that jokes tend to hurt others while humor is often self-inflicted. I have zero problems making fun of myself. None. In fact, I think that most who sit in my development classes respect me because of that. I like to make myself small in order to make others feel big. "A Day In The Life" is sort of a departure of that - although I typically make fun of myself as well. 

25 was my morning low. 

You and I are very similar.  I make myself the "target" to make others feel at ease, as I'm a jokester and spare noone...me included.  Some peeps struggle w/ the give an take of snyd comments, even when intended for fun.  That's not your problem, but that IS how life goes.  

I know it sucks, but you did nothing wrong, as you spread out the ribbin by including many in here.  You know I was on his ignore list for many moons.  I hope Bubbles can come around and realize that intentions here are not malicious.  It was a funny read, and he's one of us.   

BTW, if yall want todays temp rundown from city to stream, I'm happy to share 

27 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 26.  Pretty nice week ahead.  Seems likely we'll have some storm chances of varying type through mid-March.

Yeah it sure looks like there's still stuff coming at us.  Just gotta hope for a couple more dips in the jet in the east with a well timed vort.

BTW 147 miles on sleds on Saturday.  SOLID 6-7" otg at the cabin.  Plow on UTV struggled to bust through.  Its not going anywhere fast up there.  

Hoping for 1 or 2 rides before we close the curtains on a much better year than expected.

15 hours ago, Ruin said:

im saying models have been off on the storm tracks like normal they have been good on temp outlooks tho. which if you think about being accurate in temps should relate to precip but it always just fizzles out around us. I just want more accurate models more then 2 days out and even then to get accuracy it slike pulling teeth. I dunno why with such a bad track record any one even entertains the idea of posting a model 2 weeks plus out.

Dude.  You say the same stuff over 

and over

and over.

Bitchin about it here does nothing to fix it.  Please take your complaints to the NWS complaint dept.  They'll be happy to assist you.

Good grief its old.

2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Heck yeah, have fun pal.  My buddy's cabin is looking great.  You guys are probably even better yet.

thats moderately acceptable   

Burning barrel said 2" on top of the snow and ice from prior event, and sleds are coming into colton point.

Perfect.  Hope you get up and enjoy soon as well.  

25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was thinking about that last night. Maybe we get the goods from a less than stellar look/pattern? 

to add to a workable pattern, as wavelengths shorten and seasons begin to change, sometimes it can be the extra spark that is needed for late season lovin.

Gotta keep things close enough for that to happen...and it appears that were just that.  Close enough.  

Headed to the cabin tomorrow night to do a little snowmobiling w/ my son.  REALLY looking forward to it.  Northwoods are solidly white for those in need of a fix.

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yeah, I think that's part of the equation. Recent model runs weren't kind to us. 

Nooners say keep hook n rope handy. Tryin to yank us back in. 

While not a great look, sure shows chances still coming.  

Good looks havent worked out, so I say its time to shoehorn one in the less than perfect way.

@Itstrainingtime  

never cease to amaize us with your word wizardry. 
As usual…very well done. 
 

car thermo was 26 on way home. 

 

50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We are on hold until later next week when we enter our next window of potential winter storms.  The AFD from the NWS today suggested they needed a break:

 

 No significant
precipitation is expected through Monday, which will be a
welcome break after a seemingly incessant batch of winter storms
every few days over the last couple of weeks.

 

Which has added up to about 2" otg, and was largely undermodeled and forecasted

hehe

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

If you look closely enough to Google Earth, if down to the road view,  you can sometimes see people not dressed

Isnt pornhub a lot easier??

askin for a friend.

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Same here. Invigorating! 

Long sleeve shorts kinda day??

Us normal folk call em pants. 

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Bring it...

 

U like southern sliders eh...  J/k

Yeah lookin over the med/long range, we are not yet done w/ more chances at something....or nothing 

I'm really happy to see maps like this.  Lets keep the train rolling as long as we can, cause we are runnin shorter on time for a pattern reload.  

GFS looked ripe w/ a continuation of chances.  I like it. 

1 hour ago, paweather said:

I could be wrong but still thinks the PV wins out. 

I think it absolutely will.  BUT, what one can hope for is a little better interaction w/ the SL and the ULL.  Thats all I'm rootin for.  GFS just showed a touch of that happening.  Not much, but a small step twds a little somethin.  By HH it could jog back S, but for now we hope for whatever we can eek out of it...which is no mucho down here.

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thank you. I was just was reading commentary and saw a met say fairly definitively that we were (are?) literally just hours off in timing from this being a KU storm in our area. 

The potentially good news, it that we have about 5-6 model runs to keep the drama alive and well.  Pace yourself w/ the fingernail chewin.  

Like some of us have been suggesting, a norther correction (based on base state for me) was a legit possibility, but after the year we've been having, I've little faith/confidence in that, but it has been in the back of my mind since late last week.  Just thought itd happen a tad sooner.  Dunno how this shakes down, but it'd be nice to see this pull back west a bit.  For now, its just one model run.

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

DCA back in the game on the Nam.  Will make the rest of the 12Z a tiny bit more interesting. 

QPF ticked a nice bit N as well.  As I said above, hoping today is turnaround day.  PV is legit, and not sure how much it can gain latitude, but let's hope. 

20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

Sizeable move north on the tug. 

 

 

 

 

 

Yep.  When I saw your first post, I was shaking my head a bit.  

You recovered well.  

Bleeding stopped a bit??  I'm not gonna be around today.  On road all day, so hoping nooners and HH has some norther ticks back in it. 

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm holding strong through 12z tomorrow. Then I'll reassess.

Not your first rodeo eh?

I'm on the ITT train and think tomorrows the big day (if we can eek some sorta comeback out).  Good news is that it wouldnt take much to get us back into somethin appreciable.

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep.  Too many reasons why this is not working when it is as easy as watching the 540 for WAA chances.  

I'm not lookin for any forks yet, mind you, but it's sure not making this one easy for us. 

Hoping tomorrow the NS tells us a little better tale as to backside action and how it interacts w/ SLP.  

 IF we can get any stoppage of the souther stuff tonight, that'd be what I'd be watchin if I were staying up.

I'm headed to bed. Gnight gang.

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Boundary on the 0Z Nam is well south of 18z.  Takes away some of the waa options even though it will still hit se pa on the curve.

was just noticing that as well.  Notable tick s and less ridging.  Might still be ok, but was a step away from what we were hoping for.

42 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I think the NAM goes even bigger at 0Z. Add to the drama. 

I've been quiet since the souther stuff started, because it didnt look or feel right when looking at 500's, so I've basically sat back to see if we get a more normal correction north (I suggested that late last week.  Nam has the right idea, but w/ the globals further SE, it surely does feel like the "good ol' days".  NAM could be off its rocker as well.  Will be fun to see how this shakes out.  

IF its gonna correct, it would start rather soon.  

37 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Of course the models “should” be better but they’re not, for a whole host of reasons.  Not the least of which is that it’s really F’ing hard to predict something that operates on as grand of a scale as the Earth’s atmosphere and translate that down to the local level. What we think of as vast distances just aren’t in the grand scheme of things and the resolutions and data ingestion of the models just isn’t granular enough to produce better results. With that said, they are still correct the vast majority of the time and it’s foolish to say they aren’t far better than they were many years ago. The main issue with you is that your penchant for negativity gets unduly rewarded in a field like this, simply because there are always FAR more ways to fail than to win with these big storms.  Don’t mistake your wins for some great insight; you’re just a glass half empty guy and that’s an easy role to find fulfilling in this hobby. 

I've said it before, we've become a "point n click" society and peeps think everything they see on there PC's or phones is instant and 100 accurate.  Weather has proven countless times to alway hold the cards.  That should be the fun in it, and not the distain...we'll thats how I think most of us feel.  We just know better.  Hoping for the comeback runs in the next day or so.