pasnownut

yeah I'm callin this a win for me as its Christmas week and it sure helps to get me in a better mood seein snow. Friday still up in the air, but would be awesome to see snow 2x this week.

I slid across a bridge and almost through the turn i was tryin to make. I saved it tho. Wouldve been icing on the shit cake of a week I'm havin. haha....sorta

Yep. Look at 500's at timestamp of storm, and then paint a surface picture that youd think would logically fit. 0z GFS is not it to me, but as i've said a couple times, NAO is trending down as is AO, and that might be what is bring the surface maps slowly south as we get closer. Thats how I'm looking at it anyway.

I just looked back over again, and I'm just not feeling it. Surface high isnt anchored, its scootin NE as SLP approaches. Thermals are on a razors edge for many southers, so we know how that cut feels. Otoh, SLP stays SE of Pa, so I think we'll need to see how much antecedent cold can hold when qpf arrives and how strong SLP gets. I'd root for a weaker slp, based on current evolution. JMO's

While it is trending better (like 0z GFS), I think they too are a little perplexed at the evolution. It's really an outside curveball IMO, but hey contact is contact when youre swingin at anything that'll get ya snow.

hes 1 county (and about 20 miles) east of me. You're 230 miles west. Furthermore hes no troll like you. He offers tons more than you, and his reports are rather similar to much of the LSV. Try all you want, but you blew it in here a long long time ago. We've had this conversation before as well. You wont win anyone over in here. The only one you amuse is you and your climate pal that you call in for support . Take the hint and stop muckin up our forum.

lol. I know. thanks thoough.

for the forum you're supposed to be in...you are correct.

FWIW my gut says its no mucho down here but looking at thermals, we seem to barely hang long enough to get some wintery sumthin for a few hours then endin as drizzle. Thats where my head is after a brief peek at meso's and thermal profiles.

if one looks at snapshot of 12z gfs, you'll see upper 50's and 60 touching SW corner of state, while NE is knee deep in cold. Furthermore, if you look at the last 4 runs, you'll notice the colder looks backin in from the NE. Is that right, not sure, but i can see how this makes some sense.

Not sure Im buyin what they are sellin, as this is a really wonky evolution, but as we are on the eastern side of the pig ridge in the central US, NAO is headed negative, and as i suggested last week, then models might be correcting once they latch on. Could be what we are seein here as the cold press starts to work its magic. I'll be casually looking as its a crazy busy time, but I hope we can pull somethin off, and keep the big warmup out west....out west. The zonalish look i suggested last week seems to be showing up as we turn the calendar. How long it lasts....we'll find out in a couple weeks.

Yeah it’s not a snow lovers pattern but a couple chances at sneaky front end fun. Back end of run starting to look a bit more wintry. See saw till new year ish anyway.

@candersonwas askin if you have any rooms for rent....

Ignore the troll.

tomorrow Santa is doing his "north loop" to Lock Haven, Susquehanna, and Bloom universities. I picked a gem of a day to do it.