pasnownut

HH GFS hit the sauce too early n shat the bed. Uugghhh.

500 looks awesome and if we didnt know what weve been seeing, and saw it, "bombs away" comes to mind. Some have asked why it gets up to VA coast and then heads ENE? IMO its because its not a clean capture, and NS while diving in, is a bit late? and shunting SLP too far east instead. cold press also steering it offshore (again because of poor interaction w/ NS/SS. Do you agree or can you suggest what you think is mucking it up?

my rule for a long time, ens guidance with op till short term mesos come into range then slowly pass the weather baton off.

Yeah I'd say it silly to write off most anything at 4 days out. CMC kept hope alive. Tomorrow at this time is when I'd start lookin for the next one.

and just like that.....CMC tries to pull off my wish. Notably more neg tilt, but still a whiff. Now IF that could be the start of the normal north trend, I'd not write this one off. Lots stacked against right now.

trough axis too far east. Thats why I was hoping for NS to dive in hard and capture. IMO that coulda gave us a chance as this coulda had more neg tilt.

not diggin nooners. No fork out yet, but cold press seems to overwhelm the east, and keeps this deal too far east. VA/NC beaches approve.

Here we go boys n girls. Lets hope today is better than last night. RGEM coming in a little more tucked from 6z. Not gonna extrapolate, but not gonna say i hate the look. challenge is right where it is, is where it meets "the wall". Hoping today offers a bit more clarity to the exit stage right dilemna. Might not be till tomorrow though.

Yeah, while we missed the big accums, the density from the sleet and little bit of zr has made our lesser snowpack rather dense. Aint goin nowhere for a good while.

Yeah I only saw 5. Was expectin neg digis.

Icon still doin its own thingy at 84. 500's similar, but surface notsomuch

and looking at 18z gfs 500s at same timeframe, extremely close in presentation. me likey...

500s at 84 were notably better and digging for gold....white gold (but thats me extrapolating). BIG difference from 18z Gonna try to stay up for GFS to see if its the lead dog or not. I may be rather tired by this weekend, but man this is fun.

not every storm is perfect, but yeah, if we can eek out a few inches on western edge of qpf, I'll be giddy.

Like him or not he's 100% correct.