pasnownut

Icon still doin its own thingy at 84. 500's similar, but surface notsomuch

and looking at 18z gfs 500s at same timeframe, extremely close in presentation. me likey...

500s at 84 were notably better and digging for gold....white gold (but thats me extrapolating). BIG difference from 18z Gonna try to stay up for GFS to see if its the lead dog or not. I may be rather tired by this weekend, but man this is fun.

not every storm is perfect, but yeah, if we can eek out a few inches on western edge of qpf, I'll be giddy.

Like him or not he's 100% correct.

totally agree. poor or late phase, its pure fish food. Decent capture, its a scraper, nice/good capture, its a nuke job for some (and that some may NOT be us)

I think my frustration is that some here expect every model run to show the perfect hit all the time, or dont realize that just because some model shows something good a week out, its a rarity that they lock in (last week despite last minute taint, was largely a lock from many models from waayy out there at 7 days). What we see this week is more typical gyrations and how it goes MOST times. If youre new to this, please keep this in mind when a model doesnt show you what you want. It doesnt work that way in this business, and sometimes we find ourselves shoehornin our way into events. Pattern looks great, but it doesnt mean its a lock.

Did you look at hh 500's? That was definately a nicer look.

Please show me the kicker you speak of on the GFS??

Good catch. nooner was 3 contour closed at 500, and now 5 countour for HH. That just made my HH a whole lot happier. Much better phasing on ens.

Thanks for sharing. as shown, if you adjust clusters you'd notice that GFS/Euro ensembles are very similar in placement. So to that end, we have good agreement, even though it still needs to continue westward ticks. THIS is the kind of consensus that we whould be looking for at this range.

hoping he's still diggin out. Im sure he knows this is all in fun. My trophy was the snow and always will be, and to that end, we were all winners.

While I make no claims to be a data guru, I'll say that GFS was sniffing out last week early as well. Hence my reluctance to shift. They ALL are going to go through various iterations until this gets closer. Last week we had a general consensus and only once inside NAM's range did we see thermal challenges shown by NAM despite strong CAD/antecedent airmass in place. also, post mortem, the primary never ceded to the secondary pop, and us southers know how that worked for us. Call me what you will, but there are no KINGS in weather models anymore. As stated many times, I look for consensus at this juncture, and at this juncture the only consensus, is that there will be a storm.

FYP as it was a little dated. I just updated to current status.

I just checked both EPS/GEFS clustes on pivot, and both suggest more members being west. I think at this range, Ens guidance still holds weight and then once inside 72 ops take over. I remind everyone in this group to think about where we were 5 days ago for last weekend....and where we ended up. Biggest moves were inside 48-60hrs @candersonI dont disagree, trouch axis not ideal, BUT if you get 500 to dive in (many showing little phasing), that could absolutely help pull this west and if vertically stacked, notably diff outcome. GFS was not horrid last weekend, so while an outlier, i'll not discount, yet.