pasnownut

GFS has 4-5 rounds of wintery type opps verbatim. OF COURSE I'm not suggesting that its happenin....but I am suggesting that its not over. No WAR evident, but no -NAO so its really a wait n see. All eyes west. ENS really show the flat flow for longer leads. Not convince the look gets worse either.

actually something that i think is a valid point to consider, as it makes sense a sheltered location vs one sitting in wide open would likely show notable diff. I'm guessing our weenies know this and put them in areas less affected by direct/indirect sun.

Is it over..... You callin it ?? hehe

not sure we have a true split flow regime setting up in long term. More like a zonal (which at time can have NS/SS playing together (time dependent). But to answer your question, with a split flow, Its all about the boundary and what side you're on w/ respective vort pass. Longer lead zonal sorta fits tellies and upper air IMO. Remember that there are other signals, MJO/SSW that have lag time effects on long lead models, so one has to keep that in mind when seeing a model output and high fivin...or kickin stones. That said, next week may look notably different at this time. Thats all I'm sayin. We have another week of winter until we get our annual thaw, and in truth, we've had a great run despite the NS overwhelming the east, and pushing that precious boundary too far south and given NMA/Carolinas our precious snow. A true snow hound knows you gotta be close to the rain for the best snows, and thats been way far south. Bring a zonal pattern, and keep SS vorts from diggin too much (cutters) and just need to be close enough to the cold for some more chances at precip of the hopefully frozen variety. Of course if that happens, we'll likely be on warm side for some. it's how things roll. Just hope for the follow up waves to be further south.

NWS says 31. Guess your runnin hot

split flows can be very active and if you look at tellies/longer lead signals, I'm not sure where the fairly slim part is coming from. -pna and MJO signals are a little troubling, but you just saw what a stout -ao/nao and favorable MJO got us, and they look to head back down after next weeks spike into + territory, so I'd say signs are mixed right now. IF one sees next weeks warmth and is writing off winter....oy vey. WAYY too early to cancel anything. Once a signal looks to be overwhelming in a bad way, then get your caution flags out.

Etown for today per NWS Today Occasional flurries before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 33.

Here was etowns warmest from NWS for yesterday. Just sharing for continuity's sake. 02 14:56 NW 12 10.00 Fair CLR 30.9 8.1 38% 22 30.1 1019.7

Just looked again, and my forecast for today is 31, not 28 (thats tomorrow). Yesterday it was showing 33-34 for today. Carry on. Enjoy mood flakes if you get em. Suns out here.

No worries. I just know historically some have raised eyebrows in the past, so now I just back up my stuff, so you can raise eyebrows the other way I also know that sometimes things run warmer than advertised so i'm guessing that's what some are sharing. I posted at ruin a while back that I dont fret over 34 actual vs 31 forecast....unless there is precip fallin....then I'm madder than a hornet.

when i left office yesterday at 330 my normal route back to Akron, saw 28 in etown and got to 30 in lititz and akron. just checked for verification for you data weenies. Heres Akrons numbers. Weather observations for the past three days for Lancaster, Lancaster Airport Imperial (Metric) Date Time (est) Wind (mph) Vis. (mi.) Weather Sky Cond. Temperature (ºF) Relative Humidity Wind Chill (°F) Heat Index (°F) Pressure Precipitation (in) Air Dwpt 6 hour altimeter (in) sea level (mb) 1 hr 3 hr 6 hr Max. Min. 03 07:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC050 21.9 12 66% 30.18 1022.7 03 06:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC045 19 12 21 16 74% 30.17 1022.2 03 05:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast BKN050 OVC055 18 12 77% 30.16 1021.8 03 04:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC050 18 10.9 74% 30.16 1021.7 03 03:53 W 3 10.00 Overcast OVC050 21 10 62% 30.16 1021.8 03 02:53 W 3 10.00 Overcast OVC055 19.9 9 62% 30.16 1021.8 03 01:53 W 3 10.00 Overcast OVC065 19.9 8.1 60% 30.16 1021.8 03 00:53 W 7 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW075 19 8.1 26.1 17.1 62% 11 30.15 1021.6 02 23:53 W 3 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT090 19 8.1 62% 30.15 1021.6 02 22:53 W 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN120 19 8.1 62% 30.15 1021.6 02 20:53 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 21.9 8.1 55% 30.14 1021.2 02 19:53 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 25 7 46% 30.13 1020.9 02 18:53 W 7 10.00 Fair CLR 24.1 8.1 30 24.1 50% 17 30.13 1021.1 02 17:53 NW 6 10.00 Fair CLR 28 7 41% 22 30.12 1020.4 02 16:53 W 12 10.00 Fair CLR 28.9 9 43% 20 30.1 1019.8 02 15:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 28.9 8.1 41% 20 30.09 1019.5 02 14:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 28.9 9 43% 20 30.09 1019.4 02 13:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 28 10.9 49% 18 30.09 1019.7 02 12:53 NW 14 10.00 Fair CLR 26.1 10 26.1 12.9 51% 15 30.11 1020.3 02 11:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 25 9 50% 14 30.14 1021.3 02 10:53 NW 18 10.00 Fair CLR 21.9 8.1 55% 8 30.15 1021.5 02 09:53 W 17 10.00 Fair CLR 19 7 59% 5 30.15 1021.6 02 08:53 W 14 10.00 Fair CLR 16 5 62% 3 30.14 1021.1 02 07:53 NW 17 10.00 Fair CLR 15.1 1.9 56% -0 30.13 1020.8 02 06:53 W 16 10.00 Fair CLR 14 -0 19 12.9 53% -1 30.11 1020.4 02 05:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 15.1 -0 51% 3 30.1 1019.9 02 04:53 W 12 10.00 Fair CLR 15.1 -0.9 49% 3 30.1 1019.8 02 03:53 NW 15 10.00 Fair CLR 17.1 -0.9 45% 3 30.08 1019.3 02 02:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 18 -0.9 43% 6 30.07 1018.7 02 01:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 19 -0.9 41% 7 30.05 1018.1 02 00:53 N 14 10.00 Fair CLR 19 -0.9 24.1 19 41% 6 30.03 1017.6 01 23:53 N 10 10.00 Fair CLR 21 -2.9 34% 11 30.01 1016.9 01 22:53 NW 9 10.00 Fair CLR 21 -0.9 38% 11 29.98 1016.0 01 21:53 NW 14 G 21 10.00 Fair CLR 23 -2 33% 11 29.96 1015.3 01 20:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 24.1 -2 32%

southern tier has been close enough on many runs to keep some mood flakes in the offing tonight/tom morning. Friday clipper still seems to be holding some promise for a winter landscape refresher for much of the state. Still think SE of mtns mood flakes to a coating at best w/ typical clipper fashion favoring nother westers. and while the 7-10 look quiet outside of above mentioned chances, I'm not gonna waste a week of winter, searching for another week of winter. Gonna enjoy what we have and see how things look next week at this time. Ens guidance 2m's look warmish, but tellies beyond 2/15 seem to be zonal/neutral, and with expansive snow pack, It may mute warm signals back towards normal or slightly above. In peak climo, thats not horrible IMO. MJO is concerning, but lets see what it looks like a week from now. SSW event also happening, and downwelling and lag time of it, will likely have an affect on tellies as we look longer range.

is that 3" combined, or from each of us

NWS had my only chance at breaking freezing to be today. Yesterday they had me at 33 for the high. today they throttled it back down to mood flakes and 26. Despite the "boring" cold, we have a decent chance at statewide flakes friday and wont see above freezing for the next 7-8 days. Solid winter continues. Thanks for saving what you gave us Mo Nature.

fwiw, go check out the 6z gfs. Blizz was callin that period out the other day, and verbatim its a good one. 9z and 6z had it.