colonel717

Something to consider is will there be arctic front enhanced snows. Could help enhance totals; just for whom is to be determined. I'm sure that will help in the Laurels.

You beat me to it was just posting those. Saved me from using my attachment limit... Great consistency on them. I wish that site includes all 30 of the members but it gives a good indication.

Next weekend

They are in Indianapolis and then dont get as much with GFS. https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2014368156240990484 BAM Weather @bam_weather The GFS is just wrong I am telling you all it's wrong trust me. Side by side w/the ECMWF right GFS left It's not handling this low and the phase correctly at all and it's on an island with how it evolves. It's a matter of time before it caves to the ECM. Just watch.

Its also almost 1.3 inch of qpf.

GFS is almost repeat of 6z

AIGFS brings low just south of us.

The eventual NAM replacement brings mix line into tip of SAGC

I would guess more than 15 inches or more may do it. 20 definitely would if we are going back to 1800's

ICON sucks for thermals, such a warm bias. I dont recall it ever showing mix precip between rain and snow lines on any surface map.

I personally don't throw any solution out. I have heard too many times "its an outlier" only for it to be most similar to end solution. There is so much energy floating around what ever is the focus can change each run. I knew getting to the finish line on this one was going to be a struggle with some models ultimately showing things we don't like. What fun would it be if there was no angst... Enjoy the angst. Another Pens game tonight. I Like Ike by the way...

Still out of its range. But is a possible outcome. I think anything over 6 inches is a win.

I just shoveled that sleet from last night, couldn't imagine having to shovel that for whole storm.

NAM is south of where it was this morning. Its so over...

Always appreciate your detailed posts. I am obviously someone who is guilty of posting Kuchara at times , but I certainly don't ever expect those totals that any model puts out. Maybe RD9108 does.. Just kidding bud.. It helps me put together a range. As ROTT said, it is fun. That is what following this weather is all about for me. Enjoy any snow we get.

Most kuchara are about 13-15 to 1 which is quite possible for a good part of the storm.

Yea but we would have 15+ by the time it may even mix for a little so at that point no big deal. It's not letting me WTOD at the beginning if it even happens at any point.

We are at 12-13 inches with all this to the west for the NAM

Very similar to UKie. Probably 13-14 with ratios. It seems we have reached max tonight. Not sure it could have gone better. Now gotta hold this for 3 days.

Big improvement on GEFS