colonel717

RGEM

Icon so consistent

ICON also looks slightly south so far.

NAM! And still hours of snow left

10 inches kuchara here

Def looks better.

NAM looks south. Should be better for AGC.

Crazy. Jarry Jarry

Good start to the game. Wow Mantha 2 goals in 20 seconds

Mix line south of 12z. We are getting crushed here. Then quick dry slot.

I have never seen anything like that 48 or so hours before a storm. I've seen less agreement on the day of the storm than 48 hours or more away

Keep in mind NAM is not running with any new recon data. If its bad, throw it out. If its good keep it and will only get better when new data incorporated.

We will always be gun shy. Not having to worry about being close to cut off is awesome.

Yes and also says snow starts as heavy wet snow. I would highly doubt that. Temps Sat 14 degrees. Gonna struggle with virga for a while as far as I can tell

Transcription (OCR) SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1512Z THU JAN 22 2026 MDS STATUS... GOES-E MDS Sector 1 will be centered over 33.7N/104.1W from 23/0600Z to 24/1200Z in support of winter wx ops across portions of the Southwest. 12Z UPDATED RAOB RECAP... 70133/OTZ - 10159.. 70200/OME - 10159.. 70308/SNP - 10159.. 70326/AKN - 10159.. 72274/TWC - 10159.. 72363/AMA - 10159.. 72582/LKN - 10159.. 72597/MFR - 10159.. 72776/TFX - 10159.. 72785/OTX - 10159.. 91165/LIH - 10159.. 91285/ITO - 10159.. 72202/MFL - No report.. 72215/FFC - No report for NAM.. in for GFS. 72240/LCH - No report.. 72251/CRP - No report.. 72365/ABQ - No report.. 72476/GJT - No report.. 72493/OAK - No report.. 72558/OAX - No report.. 72562/LBF - No report.. 72634/APX - No report for NAM.. in for GFS. 72645/GRB - No report.. 72662/UNR - No report.. 72797/UIL - No report.. 74455/DVN - No report.. 72393/VBG - Missing TTAA for NAM.. in for GFS. Green/SDM/NCO/NCEP What This Message Means (Plain English) 1. Who sent this Issued by a Senior Duty Meteorologist at NWS / NCEP Central Operations (College Park, MD). These are internal operational coordination messages, not public forecasts. 2. MDS Status (Satellite Operations) GOES‑East (GOES‑E) Mesoscale Domain Sector 1 is being repositioned. Center point: 33.7°N / 104.1°W Roughly eastern New Mexico / west Texas Time window: Start: 23 Jan 2026 at 0600Z End: 24 Jan 2026 at 1200Z Purpose: To support winter weather operations across parts of the Southwest. Meaning: Enhanced satellite resolution and faster scans focused on an active winter weather area. 3. 12Z Updated RAOB Recap RAOB = Radiosonde Observation (weather balloon data) 12Z = 12:00 UTC model initialization time Stations Reporting Successfully Stations listed with 10159: Indicates data received and processed normally. Includes sites such as: OTZ (Kotzebue) OME (Nome) AMA (Amarillo) OTX (Spokane) LIH / ITO (Hawaii) Stations with Missing or Partial Data “No report” No usable balloon data received at all. “No report for NAM.. in for GFS” Data missed the NAM model cutoff Still available for the GFS model “Missing TTAA” TTAA = mandatory upper‑air pressure data codes Missing critical sounding levels for NAM ingest These data gaps can: Reduce short‑range model accuracy (especially NAM) Impact local forecast confidence during active weather 4. Why This Matters Operationally Balloon data and focused satellite coverage are critical during winter weather events Missing soundings can affect: Snowfall totals Ice forecasts Placement of frontal boundaries That’s why this message highlights: Where enhanced satellite support is active Which stations did or did not report

It is outa here so much quicker than others. GFS at hour 90 isn't close to done.

AIEURO takes warm nose into Laurels.

I actually thought that WAS the high end version when I first saw it.

That is surprising to me that they'd put that out something with high totals out this early. Which I take to mean it could be much higher. Usually they go lower and adjust higher as we get closer.