colonel717

From Ohio Valley Weather Center: [Tue 12/16/25 215pm EST] Today I will focus on the upper-level pattern at 500 mb (18000 feet). While there is some let up, focus on the 500 mb heights. Notice the tendency for higher heights to start building up into Alaska and slowly spreading into Greenland. Here is the caption for Friday morning. Notice the dive of colder air into the area, whereas just a handful of days ago, this was not shown. Models missed this. (Inage 1) Notice another piece coming in for Sunday into Monday. A lobe of cold comes through. Another instance where the model missed this a few days ago. Now, it seems to be sensing colder air. Again, higher heights into Alaska and NW Canada and up into Greenland, a bit. By no means, perfect, but modest enough to dump a batch of cold air in the region, again. (Image 2) So, assuming models will indeed miss Friday and catching on now, then missing another piece Sunday/Monday, it is hard to trust models past a handful of days. So, while it will not be as cold over the next week to ten days, if models are struggling in the medium range, there is no reason to trust models past 6 or 7 days. The tendency is for the model to keep the vortex stretched across Canada and central and eastern Russia, which implies colder air to spill into the central and east. I believe the models are mishandling things, and each subsequent run, the models slowly catch something and once inside 3 or 4 days, you see the change.

All we can do over next few weeks is hope something pops up as models/ens don't have much in the way of snow opportunities. We still have some possible snow showers Friday after the front goes through that maybe can whiten us up briefly after the big melt down on Thursday/Friday. Also Canadian looks to try to pop a little something on the 22nd but fails. So something possibly to watch. Also, something I noticed this week. Looks like Tidbits is way ahead on Pivotal on getting the GFS run out. I always thought Pivotal was ahead of Tidbits on that.

Could be a brief burst of snow if this holds together.

We had near 30 inches in Dec 2020. I think it was 3-5 for Christmas that year.

GEFS hinting at some post frontal snows Friday but we know how those normally go. Then we will see how things shake out after Christmas.

Looks like a nice band setting up NE AGC.

Going with 6.75 after some settling and drifting. It shows how my eyes are deceiving. Yesterday as it started after couple hours in I though I had 1 in or so but it was over 2 inches. When I woke this morning I thought I was over 8 inches but didn't make 7. So at about 11.4 so far. 2 - 4+ storms...Hmmm

I love going out in this weather. Just shoveled again. Getting close to 6.

These bands mean business. I may end up near 7. Should help push most over 4 inches. I mean 3.99 since 4 inch snows are no more...

Reading Cleveland discussion for tomorrow LE. They are uncertain of band locations but said there will be a couple troughs sliding through that will keep any bands from setting up over same area all day.

My yard spot light is 6 inches high. It's very close to fully covered. Very heavy fine snow now as those bands swing through.

Looks to be some nice bands setting up just north of the county.

Yea turned out that way. At 5 now. Hope I can pick up another inch. 5.3 today puts me at 10 for the year. Wait to see how tomorrow sets up for LE.

Just shoveled 3rd time. Nearing 5 inches

Back to mod/heavy snow, Nearing 4 inches. I know the Pens coach is new, but man what a disaster.

Dry air making in roads.

You can see this huge dry slot near Zanesville

I just shoveled. Im approaching 3 now.

I really underestimated how much I had. Just measured 3 spots all about 2 inches.

Not liking the look of the radar. Lots of dry air working in to the west. Hopefully that all fills in. Have around an inch so far.

Ha ha not you...Although you had your moments.

I stayed up for that last one. Very glad this one isn't overnight. First snow plow just came through. Has not let up much. Flakes gotten smaller. Nearing half inch.

Slowed down a little. Temps too warm initially to stick on roads here. 33 to start.

Moderate to heavy snow here. Nice heavy band from South Fayette to South Park