colonel717

GFS just came NW big time. Still long shot but not as big. EUROAI has been highest scoring model so need it to comes west with the EURO.

All models tonight show trough becoming more west oriented for the weekend storm. Still not affecting us but this has been our winter and it just wants to snow here so I wouldn't be surprised if things trend our way to at least a 6+ storm

Collection of several 18z EPS members pretty far west for the weekend.

The organic forecasting method has been pretty good at sniffing out timeframes for storms this year. The next best chance would appear to be Feb 5th -7th or 11th-12th.

I noticed it starting to darken up, and looks like more snow showers moving into the area.

12z GEFS just took a big jump west. Still favors mostly east coast but big jump none the less

Pgh met I asked about the 6z EPS. "I have very low confidence in what the exact outcome for this will end up being. Way too many moving parts. I think the reason why you do see such a northwest lean on the 6z EPS spread has to do with this circled shortwave. More interaction would try to tug the 500 low farther west when climbing the coast."

Just looking at IMBY snow totals. January has just surpassed December. Had 20.225 in December and 20.5 so far in January. Add in .3 in November sitting at 41.025 for the year. In order for any winter to be a great winter for me monthly snow has to meet or exceed every monthly average, so far we are doing that.

Nice that there will be snow showers through tomorrow,.

Looking at 6z EPS only out to hour 144 there are 7 members that look good. Lets see if we can improve upon that at 12z

Nope.. with you. I want the excitement and build up but I don't want the shoveling that comes with it. I am sure those on Joshs board is wanting it.

Looking at this past storm, the Canadian and the UKie seemed to be the best in painting lower totals in the area not like the crazy GFS. They never showed much beyond 14 inches with Kuchara and around 10-11 with 10-1.

6z EURO was further east. Insane rates.

Its awesome looking out my home office window and seeing piles of snow in peoples yards. Gotta go and shovel what fell later last night and this morning.