HoarfrostHubb

Starts as rain though

It figures it out about 12 hours after the event

Maybe... I don't recall that but I distinctly recall Feb 6 having thunder. First memory of thundersnow

Regarding the 1978 storm, it was a biggie... but nothing like 2 weeks later. Interestingly, it had almost all melted in my area (Foxboro) by the time Feb 6 came

I wouldn't sleep on Monday in the northern parts of SNE: Still a considerable amount of uncertainty in the exact track and how quickly the storm moves through the region. This is still evident via the spread of MSLP low locations per the GEPS/GEFS/EPS guidance. If the storm tracks a bit more inland it would result in a higher wind risk and less accumulating snow, whereas a track a bit further offshore would bring more accumulating snow and lower the wind risk. At this point given the spread am not certain on where to hedge the forecast. Will note that probabilities of 1+ inches of snow continue to increase across the higher terrain from run to run per the NBM. At this point have roughly 20-80 percent chances of 1+ inches of snow and 10-50 percent chances of 4+ inches of snow, again across the higher terrain. Generally have stuck with the NBM at this point in time. However, given the deep low and its track do think that there is a good shot to tap into strong and perhaps damaging wind gusts. Ensemble SATA tables show roughly 1-2 STD above model climatology for winds later on Sunday through Monday. Could perhaps see a 30-70+ kt S/SSE low level jet as the low is lifting through early/mid Monday. The track will be key because if the storm moves more offshore this jet also pushes offshore. At this point am more confident in the strong winds with the W to NW flow in wake of the system where we could see 30- 50+ kt winds in place. Should not be difficult to mix this down with the colder air advecting in. Given the setup did opt to bump up wind speeds/gusts toward the NBM90th percentile.

HRRR has been unreliable this season IMHO. Vascillates between big numbers and dustings

Steady as she goes. BOX map cut back a tiny bit in the Ashburnham area.

Not sure if anyone had posted the latest BOX snow map

10” is the general max in these. You might get close to that but I’m thinking 8

That would be a chefs kiss. Sorta a 3/31/97 on roids.

I wouldn’t myself. But December and much of January has been exceedingly boring. If I get 50” between now and April that would bring me to average and maybe some good storms would be in there

It's on like Donkey Kong

Had earlier been thinking 2-4” for my area. I’ll pump those up a little. 3-6”. 4.5” seems to be the sweet spot here

I have seen people on Bent's pond a few days this past week. Crazy

Pivotal clown thru 48 here... use with trepidation https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023011812&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

How is the front end looking?

Any thoughts as to what might be falling around Wachusett during the afternoon on Thursday? I'm leaning cold rain with some pingers... hopefully not in big amounts

Some spots in your hood could get 2-3" I would think... like you said, depends when it cools

This has been a good day of model watching. We wait.

NARCAN maps out yet?

That map looks good for now 40/70 Hopefully we get some cold air to hang on / show up...

There are ski areas south of NH as well

2-4" for my area seems reasonable. The rain won't make it as fun though

@Baroclinic Zone Bob should start a thread. His last one worked out pretty well.

There is going to be a lot of non-frozen precipitation in much of SNE