HoarfrostHubb

A snow day in the hill towns would be nice. Ice then 2-5” might do it.

BOX AFD relative to this event: Quite the interesting setup on Friday with a potent fast moving upper level disturbance crossing the region. The difficult part of this forecast revolves around marginal boundary layer temperatures coupled with a relatively narrow/brief swath of precipitation. We will discuss this more below. The 00z model guidance has really caught onto a potent shortwave and its associated cold pool aloft with 500T around -30C! As this strong shortwave/cold pool aloft approaches the forcing for ascent will rapidly increase. Precipitation will overspread the region from west to east Friday morning. While the boundary layer is marginal...model soundings coupled with strong forcing and dynamic cooling should allow Ptype to be mainly wet snow northwest of I-95. In fact...while short-lived an impressive band of 20+ units of omega in the DGZ is depicted. The cold pool aloft also generates steep mid level lapse rates and a -EPV signature, which would support a few hours of moderate to heavy snow convective type snow in a relatively narrow band. The question is where that band sets up, as the global guidance appears have this axis a bit further northwest than the high resolution models. Based on evaluating the data...feel the best chance for a few inches of snow will be northwest of I-95 into central and northeast MA. Even the low risk for localized 4-5" amounts depending on how this unfolds. Southeast of I-95, model soundings indicate boundary layer may be just warm enough to support rain or rain mixed with snow. However, intense omega could briefly overcome the warm boundary layer and flip ptype to wet snow as the heaviest precipitation crosses the region. There could also be a few inches of snow in the higher terrain of the Berks and maybe a coating to slushy inch or two in the Ct River Valley...but that will depend on the boundary layer temps. Later shifts may have to consider a Winter Weather Advisory depending on how the 12z guidance trends. Greatest risk for that right now appears to be northwest of I-95 with a focus on central and northeast MA, but that area may shift.

Looks like late morning through early evening in my area. 2-4" seems possible

Last night NWS had my area at 32F this morning with drizzle... wound up at around 40F. A couple of districts went with the NWS and called the delay last night. I understand that. Takes 1 accident to happen to ruin a life. Meanwhile kids get an extra hour or 2 of sleep and people lose their minds.

This morning’s temps busted high here. Still 40F. 2 hour delay ftl

Wait… NWS added the missing ORH data?!!!?

I’m with ya on this one

He didn’t say which Friday…

PAtriots can get smoked by the Bills and still have a somewhat decent chance to back in... ugh They would need the J-E-T-S to beat the Fins (possible) They need the Jags to beat the Titans (def possible) The need Pittsburg to lose to the Browns (unlikely) While I love the idea of them getting into the playoffs, they would probably benefit more in the long run by missing them. Plus they don't "deserve" it the way they have played

Wife reported a nasty drive through Winchendon and Templeton this morning on the way to work

Just a light glaze can really cause problems, but I do not see an ice storm as I would call one. Is there an official criteria for "ice storm"?

I haven’t seen any sign of that. Where do you see an ice storm?

It’s fine to point out the actual model runs, lack of substantial or interesting systems, etc. but the ad nauseam whining got old a long time ago.

That was (for him) an acceptable post. Not that it was New England centered.

Some folks might want to take a break. Learn a new hobby, write a memoir, crotchet a sweater. Anything but the whining.

Glad you are safe Ants and that the other officers are out of the hospital.

Weather wise I would give my hood a C- Decent snow (14ish inches). AN temps but enough cold to give me a white Christmas and for snowmakers at my hill to get things done.

"Pattern then gets messy and uncertain for Wed night thru Fri as models want to show sfc troughing or low pressure into the offshore waters with mid-level trough moving slowly offshore as well. As cooler thermal profiles will be advecting southward, potential for rain to wet snow is possible depending on time of day, but it`s not a pattern that would necessarily generate much accumulation. Beyond Wed night into Fri, kept a broad brushed Chance PoP before trending drier for the weekend." Definitely a thread the needle look for now. GFS was better, but still too close to being a mostly rain event

Yah. Looking too warm right now.

We just looped our dog around the neighborhood. Temps are good but the winds kinda suck. Our road is a disaster as usual. The cold then thaw and rain do not help matters.

The amount of small branches etc that came down on the 23rd is staggering At least I can clean them up

Hope you have fun! Last night looked less than ideal

Happy Tanuary Almost all of my snow is gone. Just a couple of small piles

I did see some people ice fishing on a local pond near me. That was just for one day though. Lots of thin ice and open water

Where is that?