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HoarfrostHubb

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Everything posted by HoarfrostHubb

  1. All three of the ones for my household cancelled. Hitting WaWa in the AM. Hoping for any new snow
  2. Sam Adams is giving away $50k worth of Cold Snap if Puxatawny Phil doesn’t see his shadow
  3. Was it black with white stripes or white with black stripes. sorta like a wooly bear caterpillar.
  4. If things go well, I could have a snow day Friday, a snow day Monday, and one Thursday. This season it could also go Frenchy Cordero on me though
  5. Love the weenie lobe right over me noggin'
  6. Reports of snow in Fitchburg. Maybe I shouldn't have cancelled ski club today.
  7. I've got mixed feelings on it... would like to go skiing tomorrow... but that means another day in June
  8. Maybe... I don't recall that but I distinctly recall Feb 6 having thunder. First memory of thundersnow
  9. Regarding the 1978 storm, it was a biggie... but nothing like 2 weeks later. Interestingly, it had almost all melted in my area (Foxboro) by the time Feb 6 came
  10. I wouldn't sleep on Monday in the northern parts of SNE: Still a considerable amount of uncertainty in the exact track and how quickly the storm moves through the region. This is still evident via the spread of MSLP low locations per the GEPS/GEFS/EPS guidance. If the storm tracks a bit more inland it would result in a higher wind risk and less accumulating snow, whereas a track a bit further offshore would bring more accumulating snow and lower the wind risk. At this point given the spread am not certain on where to hedge the forecast. Will note that probabilities of 1+ inches of snow continue to increase across the higher terrain from run to run per the NBM. At this point have roughly 20-80 percent chances of 1+ inches of snow and 10-50 percent chances of 4+ inches of snow, again across the higher terrain. Generally have stuck with the NBM at this point in time. However, given the deep low and its track do think that there is a good shot to tap into strong and perhaps damaging wind gusts. Ensemble SATA tables show roughly 1-2 STD above model climatology for winds later on Sunday through Monday. Could perhaps see a 30-70+ kt S/SSE low level jet as the low is lifting through early/mid Monday. The track will be key because if the storm moves more offshore this jet also pushes offshore. At this point am more confident in the strong winds with the W to NW flow in wake of the system where we could see 30- 50+ kt winds in place. Should not be difficult to mix this down with the colder air advecting in. Given the setup did opt to bump up wind speeds/gusts toward the NBM90th percentile.
  11. HRRR has been unreliable this season IMHO. Vascillates between big numbers and dustings
  12. Steady as she goes. BOX map cut back a tiny bit in the Ashburnham area.
  13. 10” is the general max in these. You might get close to that but I’m thinking 8
  14. I wouldn’t myself. But December and much of January has been exceedingly boring. If I get 50” between now and April that would bring me to average and maybe some good storms would be in there
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