I wouldn't sleep on Monday in the northern parts of SNE:
Still a considerable amount of uncertainty in the exact track and how quickly the storm moves through the region. This is still evident via the spread of MSLP low locations per the GEPS/GEFS/EPS guidance. If the storm tracks a bit more inland it would result in a higher wind risk and less accumulating snow, whereas a track a bit further offshore would bring more accumulating snow and lower the wind risk. At this point given the spread am not certain on where to hedge the forecast. Will note that probabilities of 1+ inches of snow continue to increase across the higher terrain from run to run per the NBM. At this point have roughly 20-80 percent chances of 1+ inches of snow and 10-50 percent chances of 4+ inches of snow, again across the higher terrain. Generally have stuck with the NBM at this point in time. However, given the deep low and its track do think that there is a good shot to tap into strong and perhaps damaging wind gusts. Ensemble SATA tables show roughly 1-2 STD above model climatology for winds later on Sunday through Monday. Could perhaps see a 30-70+ kt S/SSE low level jet as the low is lifting through early/mid Monday. The track will be key because if the storm moves more offshore this jet also pushes offshore. At this point am more confident in the strong winds with the W to NW flow in wake of the system where we could see 30- 50+ kt winds in place. Should not be difficult to mix this down with the colder air advecting in. Given the setup did opt to bump up wind speeds/gusts toward the NBM90th percentile.