1045 AM Update... Forecast generally on track. Have made some slight adjustments to timing showers/thunderstorms. Have leaned toward the latest ARW as it has initialized the upper cutoff/low over the eastern Great Lakes and the surface low associated with it well. Overall still the same messaging for today with strong to severe thunderstorms likely. Current thinking is that the risk is greatest the further SW you get, but we will need to closely watch the south coast as this is an area where there is roughly 30-40 kts of bulk shear. Does appear there is a bit of a boundary with the 60+ degree dew points and 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE along the with a S LLJ moving in. There are lesser values of CAPE further north and the shear is a bit more marginal, so this could be a limiting factor for western MA into eastern MA. Nonetheless will still need to monitor things closely. The low level lapse rates are still looking quite similar with nearly adiabatic lapse rates, approaching 8-9 degrees Celsius per km. Mid level lapse rates become a bit better especially as we head into the evening with the cold pool moving in overhead, -15 to -20 degrees Celsius at 500 hPa. Should see the mid level lapse rates increasing around 6-7 degrees Celsius by late. Think that the latest HRRR SCRAM and SREF Craven Brooks Sig Svr greater than 10k highlights the highest risk area well. There is a bit of backing across the CT River Valley and 0-1 SRH greater than 100 m2/s2 this afternoon, so while low we cannot completely rule out a tornado. Have also added a hail mention in the latest update as there is a few hundred J/kg of CAPE within the hail growth region.