Thundersnow12

18z GFS would probably get me home

Have a flight home booked in case. Can’t miss GHD III

1-2ft across Chi metro from NW-SE.

Easy to see more ridging by a Wednesday night from the srn plains into the lower miss valley

12” contour sneaks into srn Cook.

Wagons north galore with main one as others have said. Siggy changes

DAB for Chi metro. Big spread the wealth south

Yeah no kidding. 24”+ from STL-IND-CLE

Mean snow swath def bumped south

Joe is the only one allowed to throw these comments around thank you

What did Vince Carter say after his last dunk in the dunk contest?

End of the NAM is quicker than the GFS and also more consolidated with the trof compared to the 18z Euro

Barb would appreciate the shoutout. A moment of silence please

Yeah 2ft or pass, Fidel

**inserts Kevs fav gif**

Might have to fly home for a GHD III but Nostradamus Joe is telling me it’s gonna miss south

More impressive run synoptically. Over 80kts of flow at 850mb out of almost due south in the WCB

Big run incoming. Better looking ejecting wave

GFS looks like it's coming north. The trof out west is more aligned/neutrally tilted by 90hrs with a bit more ridging out east.

Euro continues the trend Joe was mentioning. Naso good. Alek gonna be punting come morning and can’t say I blame him. Still crazy high amounts in the main axis but that axis is Indy to NW OH. A snoozer axis

The old threads are still there it's just a matter of trying to find images still on there showing accumulations at this range. But IIRC and finding a few random images confirms it, amounts for that storm/the top end fcst amounts were not as high as what we are seeing with this one.

Definitely have more GHD II vibes with this one vs GHD I. IIRC GHD II initially looked like the 0z GFS with the main QPF/snow axis south of Chi metro (vantage point I'm speaking from) but still the fcst totals were fairly large given the long duration of overrunning/WAA up and over the baroclinic zone with the open GOM. That was then gradual north trend over like 48+ hours. I still remember nearly every Euro run would baby step northward along with other guidance. Not saying that is what's going to happen here but looking at some guidance and it has that early GHD II look. Guidance then trended to a more would up/trailing wave look up until the very last minute. This GFS run, the trailing/main wave looks like it shears out as it ejects given whats happening across SE Canada. A slower trough/main wave is probably not a good thing as what's going on over Canada acts to suppress/shear out what eventually ejects and you just end up with a long duration period of good overrunning snows and not a wave that's able to eject and take off. A quicker wave would be able to get out in front more ahead of the big digging ULL moving into SE Canada

Hopefully

30”+ for LAF this run. Chi metro still manages 10-20” from NW-SE