That early stuff is probably a mirage so toss that but yeah still a respectable hit across the metro. Better off using 12hr totals to get rid of that weird initial fake snows.
If anything the NAM is slightly stronger with the srn stream ejecting wave by 18z Thursday but the trof coming across the Dakotas/upper lakes is a bit tad further SE this run;
Obviously it's an outlier but the HRRR verbatim would meet blizzard warning criteria across northeast IL and northwest IN late Thursday afternoon into evening.