mahk_webstah

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Saturday has been off and on, but I think it's mostly off for now.

I’ve never really been bought into that one up here. I’m hoping our clipper Thursday night over performs and then we can start to take a look at something bigger next week.

when I miss out, I want it to be big somewhere else.  More pics and vids please!

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Flurries at home now.

Overperformer. 

quit stealin my flurries!

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

How the hell does Hartford have 11 inches lol that’s crazy. 5 inches here but coming down at least an inch an hour.

I think they are in that same narrow intense band that goes back to Danbury, near Hartford, to Kevin and then ORH

I know the folks in the other thread are focused on today, but seems like the 17th-25th has some potential.

The Thursday night clipper has been in my wunderground forecast for 3-4 days and the amount is increasing a bit.  Around 2.5" now I think.  I'm worried this one might go south as well.  

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s hard to describe how hard it’s snowing in this band . I don’t think this really does justice .

That’s spectacular!  Congrats.

Just now, wx2fish said:

-SN with a dusting up here on the fringe. Radar and trends look good pike south

Scott is gonna get more snow than he can let himself believe

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Oh the leader of the snow weenie pack.

Guy still lost.

CON-fluence. BS. Effin’ UL +height anoms over our heads. Has been that way for days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

You give yourself away when you say shit like this.  Makes me sad.

17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

lol yup 

From a methuen  jack to an Atlantic City jack in 24 hours.  Something wrong with the model last couple years.  The historical data and patterns that they have in their databases must’ve lost validity.  Some thing has changed and the analogs don’t do nearly as well.

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Please.

Just.

Let.

It.

End.

No.

Mas.

but you are in a perfect spot for clippers intensifying on the coast.

36 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Just looking at the water vapor, I think the southern solutions are wrong from the position of the NS, it is digging a bit already

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

I think you are fairly new to the board?  And a great contributor.  I am looking forward to the radar and water vapor loop hallucinations!  Its gonna be a ride the next 20 hours or so.

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Off hour. Already tossed

Gonna be both a lot of tossing, and maybe not so much tossing going on later if you know what I mean

Just now, MJO812 said:

Watch 18z Euro come back to reality 

If we only knew what that was

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Why is the Euro wrong?  All I see in here is weenies chucking insults.  Looks like UKMet which hasn’t changed in days.  

You suffer from a lack of self awareness 

North trend to a coop jackpot at 18z?

I wonder if this is the convection issue that WPC was mentioning a discussion earlier. Is it more extreme than usual and fookin with the models?

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still don't have a great feeling here. 

Battle scar tissue

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. You were leaned back too. Have to wonder what else was going on in there…

Ant McNaulty!?!!??!

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Clipper for Thu night has been coming back stronger the last 24h. 

I've noticed that.  I love a clipper.  If it is snow and snow, 2-4 in a fast moving clipper can be a lot of fun

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably this needs now-cast ...

The 06z Euro doesn't really drop the mic on this for me at all.  Seems as though some are acting like it should? Yes, it could certainly be right, but there's just as much plausibility for this to bump back NW on the next cycle(s) - all thse SE "giga" movements in the models don't appear to be coherently driven by large scale forcing. That tends to thinking that behavior is an artifact of model noise...  Stakes are high-ish. Even a half back correction and 4-6" comes back to Rt 2 with 6-10" to the Pike ...etc.. 

Or should the ICON's overnight rendition prevail, that obviously implicates more.    I consider the Euro as the southern goal post and the ICON the northern.

You know, it would be wonderfully entertaining if the 06z ICON solution verified in lieu of the Euro ... It's sort of an underdog model.  I like mixing things up a bit and rattling preconceptions. It's fun to bear witness.  Lol  

I will say, that ICON's track and intensity have varied the least of all guidance between 18z yesterday, 0z last night and 06z this morning. It has moved around a little, but less than the other guidance.  It's QPF distribution was mod/major, moderate, back major respectively ...so some additional variability run-to-run with that ... But by and large its general cyclonic manifold has demoed the better continuity.  

The Euro moving S a 100 mi in < 3 days before go-time is atypical model performance ...  If that verifies that would be just as interesting.  And if so ... I'd suggest that attenuation phenomenon caught up with this... Perhaps at imperceptible scales, a weakening in the total scaffolding of the circulation within which this system transmits ...becomes less supportive, that could induce a southerly track correction in the finality.   It's just that "imperceptible" ( or maybe "sneaky" is a better word) makes that less reliable.

Anyway, we find ourselves in a situation where worse continuity is being rewarded with more confidence?   That's also interesting -

 

the discussion of the radar tomorrow should be fascinating.

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably this needs now-cast ...

The 06z Euro doesn't really drop the mic on this for me at all.  Seems as though some are acting like it should? Yes, it could certainly be right, but there's just as much plausibility for this to bump back NW on the next cycle(s) - all thse SE "giga" movements in the models don't appear to be coherently driven by large scale forcing. That tends to thinking that behavior is an artifact of model noise...  Stakes are high-ish. Even a half back correction and 4-6" comes back to Rt 2 with 6-10" to the Pike ...etc.. 

Or should the ICON's overnight rendition prevail, that obviously implicates more.    I consider the Euro as the southern goal post and the ICON the northern.

You know, it would be wonderfully entertaining if the 06z ICON solution verified in lieu of the Euro ... It's sort of an underdog model.  I like mixing things up a bit and rattling preconceptions. It's fun to bear witness.  Lol  

I will say, that ICON's track and intensity have varied the least of all guidance between 18z yesterday, 0z last night and 06z this morning. It has moved around a little, but less than the other guidance.  It's QPF distribution was mod/major, moderate, back major respectively ...so some additional variability run-to-run with that ... But by and large its general cyclonic manifold has demoed the better continuity.  

The Euro moving S a 100 mi in < 3 days before go-time is atypical model performance ...  If that verifies that would be just as interesting.  And if so ... I'd suggest that attenuation phenomenon caught up with this... Perhaps at imperceptible scales, a weakening in the total scaffolding of the circulation within which this system transmits ...becomes less supportive, that could induce a southerly track correction in the finality.   It's just that "imperceptible" ( or maybe "sneaky" is a better word) makes that less reliable.

Anyway, we find ourselves in a situation where worse continuity is being rewarded with more confidence?   That's also interesting -

 

I prefer the existing arrangement, post WW2.

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro went from 10-14” here on the 00z sunday run to dim sun Tue afternoon 24hrs later. 

A double order of Xiao Long Bao please.

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Has there been a more important 12z suite to lift a forum or kick them in the nads ..or tooo dramatic 

Many of us have been kicked, including you. You could still be in the game though for a good band depending on trends. I’m definitely out of the game. But south of the pike it’s gonna score. Do you have a client down there who might “house” you tonight?

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was an incredible discussion.

I posted it because it implies something pretty intense that comes across a decent part of southern New England. With so many models coming out at all, feels so jumpy and unclear. But that discussion says you should get ready for a big intense fast snowstorm that can be a lot of fun during the daytime tomorrow if you are particularly south of the pike.  I’d be stoked if I lived down there.