mahk_webstah

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ratios should be pretty high with this so we shall see going forward.

Not predicting this, but I’ve seen these exceed 20 to one
 

18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Around .20-.25" here.

Let’s see if we can ramp to .3

Peaked at nam thru 39. Doesn’t look like an increase in qpf at least in NH.

Nam qpf doesn’t seem to be increasing much across New Hampshire, at least

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GYX bumped them up.

Much broader area of 3 to 4 inches and that 4 to 6 inch area expanding. Will be inching to see what the mesos bring us overnight.

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

In other news, Not that i buy it, But the 18z HRRR has a 3-6"+ swath up here in CNE/NNE, And thats on the 10:1 map, Should be higher ratios with this so Kuchera probably a better fit.

no guarantee obviously, but this is what we wanted to see at 18Z and hopefully again overnight.

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait a minute ... I'm lost I guess.

Forky made a comment about the West Pacific warm ocean muting the MJO's mechanics.

He may have been a bit brutish with his assessment that there will never be a winter ever again  - personally... y'all too sensitive to tongue-in-cheekisms.   Least, that's what I took that as. Sardonic/droll humor.

Something is fucking up winters.  That's in the data.  Not only that, there is long list of papers published over this last decade, discussing the empirically demoed alterations in the global circulation patterns. These are damning data and logically derived papers -

We should stop stomping on everyone and accusing them of troll because their voice implicates and/or posits causalities and consequences.   I'm not defending Forky here ...I'm just not seeing that what he said is really that bad.  

MJO's haven't been coupling as well to the hemispheres, nor have ENSOs ...

I didn't see Forky's post as trolling.

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

maybe the huge area of near 90 degree water in the west pac will magically cool down despite co2 emissions not dropping

Hey my views on climate change are probably close to yours.

But is what you imply that these CA atmospheric river events are going to be even more common?

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

climate change pushed the west pac past an MJO tipping point and we're probably not going to see any sustained good winter patterns for the rest of our lives

A couple of years ago they were talking about 10 years of drought in California. Now, is it atmospheric rivers as far as the eye can see?

26 minutes ago, George001 said:

Then they are actually backing up their tough talk, which is respectable. Fortunately that has never happened, but I have gotten my ass handed to me by people who I challenged to duels before. I have 100x the respect for the people who accept and defeat me in a duel than I do people who run and hide like cowards. 

how did you lose a sword battle and not die?  is fighting the honorable thing to do, or maybe we could consider the highest value and the greatest courage to be working out our differences?

Why am I talking about this lol? 

Right now our duel is with winter, and we are losing.   I still think we can turn it around.  The perfect was a mirage, yet again, but it is new england and it can snow pretty easily this time of year.  Stay strong.

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

This is why I believe in the old school approach. If someone acts tough online, challenge them to a duel. They either have to accept and say that shit to your face, or decline and admit that they are a weak willed internet tough guy who hides behind a screen. In my opinion, everyone who talks shit online should be forced to meet with said person and say it to their face. If you wouldn’t say something to someone’s face, don’t say it online. 

what if that person stabs you with a sword and you die?

8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Absolutely no complaints, I’m satiated after this last event. Hope it didn’t come off as negative.

no not at all!  just playing around with words and phrases

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

looks more like a squall line than a clipper down here. In and out.

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

looks more like a squall line than a clipper down here. In and out.

Your will take your squall and you will like it.

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think the QPF is being underdone. Dynamics are pretty impressive and RH fields look good (though I didn't look at any soundings so maybe they are showing some dry layers). But that is a potent H5 jet streak moving in, looks like the nose of it coincides with the best lift/forcing too. I would anticipate precip could break out across much of the region. 

it is an impressive system as it comes thru the upper midwest.  I know they lose some juice sometimes coming across the mountains, but sometimes they maintain themselves more than expected, and that helps the Atlantic get involved sooner.

35 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I've seen these clippers blow up once they hit the atlantic in the GOM and we've had 6"+ on occasions locally, Not saying it will happen but these tend to ramp up some in the last 24hrs.

in that scenario we get earlier easterly inflow as Brian said and maybe manage 4-6" at 18:1 while you get 6-10.  Wouldn't take a miracle...we just haven't had these kind of systems for a while.  I love the high ratio stuff.  Will be interesting so see meso this afternoon maybe give some clues and then tomorrow morning start to see some .3 and .4 numbers more common across NNE and CNE

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hires models are a little interesting. HRRR redevelops it far enough south in the GOM that we back the flow easterly for a bit while that potent ULL/vort moves in behind it.

as you know way better than me, these situations sometimes surprise upside.  4" would be a huge win, in a practical sense.

12 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Love it. You’re a true weenie Mahk, single-handedly keeping the vibes positive in here while the Debbie’s have their day 

Lol.  I think 3-4" would be nice to look at and to cover the slippery crusty paths in the woods.  I like my walks...especially if I can't have my pack.

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its such a worthwhile endeavor because its such a great avenue for personal ernichment...regardless of outcome. Sure, you get some people that shit on you when you are wrong, but its normally 2 types of people and its inwardly driven.

1) People who also partake in the effort themselves, and are either very insecure and/or dissatisfied with a certain aspect(s) of their own lives and project that onto my effort instead of the mirror.

2) People who would like to engage in the effort themselves as the ultimate means of expression and undersanding of their life long passion. But alas, just can not get over the ambivalence barrier to committing to such an effort, and reconicle that fact by resenting the efforts of those who do so out resentment and subconcious envy.

preach

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Tomorrow night could certainly overperform I think. NAM has the s/w amplifying as it moves across the region. Some pretty steep lapse rates involved too. Could be some hefty snow squalls. Maybe even some thunder/lightning across Pennsylvania with squalls which could propagate across southern New England. I could see some spots picking up 1-2''. 

NAM shows maybe .15-.2 for up here.  That could be 2-4"   I'm eager to see what other meso guidance gives later today and overnight.

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I need over 100" to catch 07-08.

you at 40?  I think I'm at 34.

Hoping the mesos beef up the clipper for tomorrow night.  It happens sometimes.  Just getting a few inches and a feel of winter for the next 2 weeks would be great...before my gelid nape warms at the end of the month.  I would love an early spring, but lets winter a bit first.

Just now, dendrite said:

Shitshow commute after the early morning squalls. 
 

0.3” new

Seemed like a bit more here but hard to measure. Maybe .75-1”

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Clippa, Better than ets see ifnothing, Heading up to NW Maine on thursday.

Let’s beef it up to 3-6 with ratios.

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Knowing the weather weenie population, that is a smaller leap of faith than a winter month being a torch.

Tell it like it is gurrrrllll!

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm starting to look down the barrel of a .12 ga, I don't have a good feeling for much of anything the rest of this month, My back is sore from shoveling all the potential snow.

It has truly been a rough one. I’m still hopeful for another stretch of winter but you know more than me, so I hope you’re not right.