mahk_webstah

I understand what you are saying, and we’ve been burned a lot the last couple of years. It just doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of Contra indications right now. If there were the qanon omega and Papi would be posting those 300 hour plus operational charts. The sense I get from reading the meteorologists is that the large scale forces that are creating the upcoming pattern set up to force a good pattern. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of wiggle room. The pattern progression globally in other words, is leading us in this good direction. First snow is popping up on my weather underground app for the 11th 12/13.

Look we have a real good pattern setting up. The threats will start to show themselves in a few days. For now maybe signals? But all that matters is the larger scale setup and how stable the pattern looks. Looks like there will be be threats unless there is suppression. I don’t expect to see anything serious until maybe Tuesday or Wednesday, perhaps for the 12th?

You and across to Delaware got that early morn heavy wwa but we caught up in the afternoon.

PD 1 was the greatest snowstorm of my childhood in Dover DE. 25” with 5” an hour rates. It followed 16” in the ‘78 storm and I was hooked! But it set the expectations high. PD2 in center city Philly. 18” and a lot sleet at the end. Great storm but a lot of sand and small flakes. im all in for PD 3.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we swing back to some real and even severe winter for several weeks. I know Ray wants to cut it off soon, but we are living in a time of extreme. It seems and I kind of expect us to get the cold snowy side that at some point.

I am sad to hear this. I was hoping you might challenge him to a duel.

Honestly I’ve been figuring that we won’t go more than two weeks between precipitation so if I had to bet, I would say something comes in sooner than Valentine’s Day. even if it is a cutter or SWFE

Couldn’t you find the least one that was warm at least, or at somehow connected to Southeast Atlantic Ridge to the Nao Ridge? come on man…

Watch out for the tree avalanches! My husband calls them travalanches

Exchange rate with a dollar I think it’s quite strong and the first two weeks of February are their winter carnival, which is spectacular

If you going to waste one of your 5 posts, why not use it for something additive? We already know odds are low for anything before Feb 12. What do you think is going happen mid-month? And how long do you think it will last? Is the another "No Changes" or is it "No. Changes." Think of a continuum, with "total troll" at one end, and "contribution of value" at the other end. Where is this post along the continuum? And how might we shift more towards the "value" end of our continuum?

When blocking is strong, and not transient, does it not tend to lock in for a bit? My worry is suppression if the 50-50 and NAO block are too far south. But even then we'd probably get a storm up here as the pattern sets in and one as it leaves and maybe something in the pulses.

I haven’t been there for like five years. When I was in Charlevoix, it hadn’t snowed for a month, but there were still 2 to 3 feet on the ground. There’s a Fairmont resort about two hours north east of Quebec city along the St. Lawrence seaway. It has a great casino actually and is a super resort and you can hire a guide to go out snowmobiling, there must be some great snowmobile trips that go from Maine in New Hampshire into Quebec. I would think. Every year on here I recommend that the weenies visit Quebec city. Not only is it snow filled and cold, it is also really charming and romantic with great food . If these weenies wanted to impress their wives and girlfriends and husbands, they would take a long weekend to Quebec city. Much better than Montreal. And if you have more time, you can take a ride out along the Saint Lawrence seaway Northeast out of Quebec.

I had great fun snowmobiling in charlevoix, 2 hours NE of Quebec City. Beautiful up there and snow like crazy.

When that stuff comes down it’s gonna be another storm. Probably add an inch or two to the pack in the woods. Looks exactly the same here

Porked and splattered

She’s not gonna let us out James.

It’s been an amazing three days in central New Hampshire. In terms of the scenery and your pictures capture it really well. Tomorrow the next day, the snow will start to fall from those trees, but in the meantime, let’s keep enjoying it.

It’s gon bring that thing far enough inland to nail you, but you gonna be cold enough too. Embrace.

Look,Tip has a way with words, so I’m going with Hook and Latter.

I don’t know. I think the high-pressure from the high latitudes would force redevelopment on the coast wouldn’t it? I think that could be good for all of New England, but the mid Atlantic would struggle.

Let’s just how the 50-50 doesn’t become too suppressive

That would be freakin awesome

I've been thinking that for at least up here I don't buy the notion of 10 dry days. If so, then the the pattern has changed (no matter with qqanon thinks). Maybe a little shortwave that drops 2-4, maybe a warm-up as you said. Maybe a Scooter high that cools us off if we get a cutter later next week. I mean, who knows. And a few sunny days in the 30s will feel good. The models have not been stellar...and this is a big climo period for snow up here. I'm at 33", and I expect by March 15 to be at or above my seasonal norm of 70.

Wouldn't an SSW imply that at least the HL blocking stays around? And when those blocking episodes are strong, don't they tend to persist for several weeks? Thanks.