Interstate

The 12K looks the the GFS yesterday morning

Still room for improvement on the H5... if it can go negative about 6 hours sooner

H5@48 is almost neutral

but even at 45 it is not negativity tilted...nor was it on the 12Z

We were looking at different hours... that 3 hours made a difference

I was looking at H5@39... so you are ahead of me... maybe something switches in 3 hours... and it does

Yeah that looks more positivity tilted than the 12Z

46.4/46.1... This is why I have a WSW and you dont.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 231 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 MDZ004>006-008-011-503-505-507-508-VAZ505-210345- /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0003.260222T2000Z-260223T1500Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Western Loudoun- 231 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations 5 inches or more are possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northeast, and northern Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Snow may begin Sunday morning, but the heaviest snow and coldest temperatures are most likely late Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially Sunday night into Monday morning. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All I am concerned with is where the SW in located and where it goes negative (if it does)

Thank you Mods for everything you do and everything you have to put up with.

They do... It is the Kuchera ratio

It is not the surface I am worried about.

it is way positive at 48 compared to 54@6Z

it is all about it going negative tilt now

I don't think I am liking the change... I could be wrong

The ICON is too late with the negative tilt

and as for the 3K... the meat of the storm is after the end of it run

THIS IS OUR STORM!!!

I do not know how it is a step back for Baltimore north.

Yeah... just need it to go negative a couple hours earlier

Looks better to me on the H5@18

The NAM at H5@15 is more robust out west

I think someone needs a timeout

Give me one good thing you have brought to the forum... other than the increased whining... have you bought any good analysis?