Interstate

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I can extrapolate about .47qpf on the ukie and 12:1 ratios = 5.6" in my yard. Ukie and euro aren't far apart. At least for another 30 mins

Why is the Euro upping it to 10 inches. Lol

Looks like the FV3 has the double Low to a certain degree

1 minute ago, yoda said:

This is what 12z looked like

Wow that is a major improvement.

Just now, yoda said:

@Bob Chill and @nj2va

Here is a better and closer QPF image for tonights 00z UKIE

Can you post 12z please for comparison.  Thanks in advance 

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs supports it

That is the day PSU is gitty about. 

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

dont look at CMC 240

Now that is a perfect storm with a perfect track. Lol

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

What i never thought about before is how long it takes the euro to process/ run 240 hours. From 12:45 to 2:00. It takes the Icon 15-20 minutes lol.

That is why it is usually wrong 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

GFS out to 36 is north.......

Are you sure. Looks like the confluence is coming down more in the NE at 48

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Good call. This panel is money and explains why the gefs had so many juicy solutions

The bigger question is can it climb the coast or go OTS?

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I know some people hate hearing posts like this but i'm tossing all ops except the euro if it doesn't waver at 0z tonight. Its been the most consistent and appears lasered in. Qpf distribution always moves around a little but the euro is being really stready with the progression. 

The question is are we close enough to the event that you will stay up for the Euro?

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Damn that's some spread on the GEFS.  More big hitters than duds though, so that's good to see.  We're still (barely) at the range where the ensemble mean should beat a given Op run.  Interesting to see both the GEFS and EPS means be better solutions for us than the Ops.  I'm very good with that today, but if that's still happening at 18z tomorrow and beyond, that starts to get concerning that the Ops are handling subtle features better than ensembles.  

10 of the 20 a huge hits... with 3 pretty much whiffs 

Just now, PivotPoint said:

I know man. It wasn't apples to apples but it gave me the broad strokes to surmise that it wasn't a better trend for coastal hugging. which is what I was getting at. It exited the coast kinda lame. True?

I gotcha now... I thought you meant the overall run of the EURO... but you are just talking about the evolution of the coast low that could enhance our front end snow.

Just now, PivotPoint said:

Not way out. And I was using 120hr to compare to the last 0z run to see what the strength was like exiting the coast or if there was still an organized slp coming up the coast. TT maps aren't the greatest

Yeah... you cannot compare TT Euro maps on 12 hour runs because the panels are in 24 hour increments. You would have to look at yesterday's 12z run

Just now, PivotPoint said:

500mb @120 does not look great

... by 120 it is way out in the Atlantic.

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Pretty evenly distributed .3-.4 through our region. Trimmed back from 0z. That's 2 in a row with decreasing qpf in general. 

The question is did it trim back from the 6z?

I come back to 2 pages of discussion of what is the criteria for a WSW...  

Just now, yoda said:

Start with the lowest shade of blue bordering the dark gray.  That is the 2" line.  Each line you pass as you move toward DC is an increase of 0.5"

Or just count down from the purple which is 6. 

8 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

lol I really want a good nice clean snow. 

I hope you dont have dogs

Someone is upset about the Government shutdown 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Depends, I am not looking at precip at all...but just looking at the h5 and mslp the low is a little north of 6z, and its 1014 vs 1016, and the system did hold slightly less energy back.  But its only better if you compare it to 6z which was awful, going back to the runs that were really good its worse.  So depends what you are comparing it too...and what you are looking at.  

I was only looking at the H5 map... The confluence was stronger and the heights in front were slightly lower.

What we need is the NS to get behind the SS

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

at 72 there are SLIGHT improvements...its hanging a little less energy back...look at the tail of the trough in Utah... and its digging the NS a slight bit more...look at the heights in Kansas... the rest is nearly identical.  So MINOR differences but they are in a good way.  

At 96... it doesnt look like a good way though.

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

I think sitting in this position is fine if the trajectory is going to get it to climb the coast. The problem is this looks more like a west-east system and a southern slider type, so I'm not sure we will see the north adjustment at the last minute.

We need some interaction with the NS to pull it up the coast... otherwise it is a light event with a whiff to the south.

No one mentioned the FV3 this morning. Is it still the outliner being super amped?  I see TT is still catching up last night run. 

From the TT maps you would like it would be good between 96 and 120

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

FVC3PO is a good hit.....hasnt wavered. 

I just wish it would come back to TT... So hard to read the other maps