Interstate

I do not think the H5 looks as good as the 18z. I am only looking at the H5 maps

Just now, jayyy said:

NAM clown maps anyone? For poops and giggles ! 

Not in range yet for us at least. 

42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs shifted the shield north and west. Honing in on a good storm...

But we can stop the North and West movement now though. 

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Less NS through 114, low further north.  Similar totals to 12z.  SS SW was a little more stretched early on

4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

@EastCoast NPZTry sprinkling baby powder on it. Should help soothe the burn. 

You might get mesothelioma

1 minute ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Ahhh yes. Thanks to the king, we have at least 8 more “intriguing” hours of model watching and updates. I can only imagine how we will react to the NAM late afternoon and then a further north tick at 10:30 tonight GFS........let the pages of comments roll. 

The EURO runs off hours now... 

12 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

This is a storm thread.

We are not in Storm Mode yet.

Some people just like to pee in the Cheerios 

So do we get Happy or Crappy Hour today :)... I think the event is in range of the off hour run of the EURO

So did the GFS cave to the EURO or did the EURO cave to the GFS?

If the GFS is close to what is going to happen... We just need the energy in NE to move a little more west and get behind the SSW...

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

FV3 looks ok so far. 

FV3 is unreliable according to the NWS though. 

Just now, stormtracker said:

lol  CMC is destruction.     Too bad it's the CMC.   Not staying up for the Euro tonight for it to sh*t all on my dreams.    I'll awake tomorrow, look at the thread page count and figure it out from there.

Can’t do that anymore. There are 50 comments if it is good, bad or nothing. 

I mean the CMC did just one up the GFS

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs snows for 30 hours. I'll take the under.

Not as much energy got sucked back from the ridge closing off so the shortwave has more juice than the euro. Ns helped but that's not nearly as reliable at d4+ with the southern stream. Honestly, i'm surprised the gfs held the storm together as well as it did. H5 doesn't look that impressive. 

I liked the look of the H5 from 114 on

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Such an interesting evolution.  Can you explain what hours you’re looking at re: ridge doesn’t close while the SW ejects?  Ejects before 108 as the ridge starts to close off?

Look at the H5 at 114. Look at the NE and upper level energy. 

Once again I wish people would just let the models run first. 

The analysis is comical. It is great. It sucks.     Maybe we should let the models play out first before commenting on them. 

53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's not the confluence that's the problem. The shortwave keeps looking weaker and more sheared. Very different situation compared to last month even though the results look similar. 

Yeah but that will be the next thing that causes an issue.

What did the extrapolated NAM say?

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

 h5 looking good on 12z gfs at 108 to this amateur's eyes...

You need to keep an eye on the North East for the confluence

You know we have had a bad season when we are looking at individual members of the EPS.

34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Could you clarify for me what exactly "overrunning" means? (never have been clear on that)

A condition that exists when a relatively warm, less dense air mass moves up and over a cooler, denser air mass on the surface. The result is usually low clouds, fog and steady, light precipitation.  Basically means that we have cold weather at the surface with warm air moving in aloft... as long as we can keep the atmosphere cold enough... it will produce snow.

2 hours ago, AU74 said:

Okay, but Google agrees with my memory from when I worked in Chantilly 40 years ago.

Right at Cville

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Wherever it goes, things are exploding along to gulf coast 

Whereever it goes. It will not make it to MD.