CarlislePaWx

Just took an updated look at my NWS forecast and they have taken rain out of the forecast and now have all snow with a range of 4 to 9 inches. Encouraging.news.

I would think he would use WB data since he is the founder and owner of Weather Bell. (I'm sure you already know that but others around here might not.)

Interesting differences between WB and Pivotal algorithms. Here's Pivotal:

So I guess for now we're both half-right?

Correct me if I'm wrong but this qpf map includes the upcoming weekend storm. 7-day qpf. That helps take some of the melting sting out of the rain.

This run puts DC back in the game, going from less than an inch back up to around 6. I do hope for their sake that they get to join the party.

I guess I overreacted a little when I saw the low head east from Norfolk. That position was so much further south than the other runs and models that showed it east of the DelMarVa.

The whole presentation seems whacked, moreso than 18z, and yet Lanco takes the prize (this run).

Don't throw it out...lol. Somehow it gives LSV 4-8" by 18z Sunday.

heads out to sea from southern VA coast. Now that's a drastic change. Throw it out?

GFS axis of heaviest moves south and east by quite a bit. Uh-oh

@Bubbler86You're speaking about a changeover (although not precisely where), but I'll assume SE LSV / Lanco. However, none of my precip-type maps show any changeover anywhere in this region for any period of this storm. Please specify where/what you meant regarding said changeover.

Well, it is certain to change 6 hours from now. So, for the moment, I can reminisce back to 2016 and 2010. Meanwhile DC went from 15" down to 5". I feel for them.

Adams / Cumberland bullseye of 20 - 23"...hah!

Merry Christmas to all, coming from central Cumberland county. As soon as there is accumulating white stuff outside, you'll see much more of me. I can't believe that right now as I look up to the mainly overcast skies, that tiny spots of blue are peeking through, and the sun is making an appearance.

Good morning all... Managed to get down to 21.9 around 7:45am, and have sky-rocketed up 10 degrees since then with a current temp of 32.0 degrees.

Well I've been waiting to see if any of the radar echoes would pass over me, and at 12:25 the first flurries of the season are flying through the air. Way too light for anything to stick, although my temp has just dropped back from 34 to 31.6. Woo-hoo!

Guys...I'm surprised the wind event I had wasn't experienced by more of you. I saw Canderson's comment. Honestly, I don't think I've ever experienced something quite like what happened here a few hours ago when that pretty strong cell moved due north up from Adams. There was no lightning. There was no thunder. It wasn't even completely overcast. When I heard the roar outside I was surprised. I went outside and watched the 80-foot tall trees in my backyard bending like never before. Fortunately the winds were coming out of the south, which is also a bit unusual. I knew right away that 30-40mph sustained winds with gusts to over 50 were suddenly upon me. I figured, alright, this will only last a couple of minutes. But, it kept going. The noise was amazing. Within 5 minutes the rain began and the wind just kept on going. There were momentary lulls, of course, but the event lasted easily for 15 minutes or more. I just wish I had better wind exposure for my anemometer. The back of my house faces north. That means the most blocked direction for winds is when they are out of the south. So, I recorded a whopping 9 mph on my Ambient, and 12mph on my Tempest. The temperature fell rapidly again, just like yesterday, from near 90 all the way down to 67 in about 10 minutes. I haven't had time to look online for the data, but I don't know if a severe thunderstorm warning had been issued for this. Again, not one lightning bolt or clap of thunder through the entire event. Amazing! Fortunately, no damage from the high winds.

95.5 / 77.4 / 111 ! I think this is getting real close to the highest heat index I have ever witnessed / recorded.

At 3:11pm I have just hit my high of the day so far at 95.0 degrees. My dew point is 76.8 degrees producing a heat index of 110! Easily in excessive heat warning territory. I can't wait for early next week when we go back to below normal with low 80's and lows in the 50's!

UGHH! With the hazy sun shining for quite a while now, the temperature has reached 92.8 degrees. Couple that with a dew point of 78.4 degrees and you get a heat index of 109 degrees...worthy of an excessive heat warning.

Take a look at the top 5...incredibly it's every year since 2019!

Station lightning strike count just hit 1500. Very prolific. It can detect strikes in a diameter out to about 27 miles.

Looks like I've escaped the severe weather. Winds preceded the heavy rain, but my station's max gust has been 9 mph...lol. (not the best exposure for wind). Frequent lightning and thunder. Approaching a 1/2" of rainfall in under 15 minutes. Also, wonderful temperature drop from 77 to 65! I thought I briefly heard a little bit of hail, but I did not see anything, just heard pinging off my metal patio chairs.