CarlislePaWx

How about passing out to this!!! Those arctic temperatures could only be achieved with a deep snowpack and calm winds. I've personally never seen these negative numbers ever! It's interesting that 2 days ago on the 21st was the 29th anniversary of the all-time record low temperature at MDT of -22F. Those temps which last occurred back in January of 1994 was during the incredible snowy and icy winter of '93-'94. Speaking of icy, it was during January when my friend who lived up just a few miles from High Point NJ reported freezing rain with a temperature of 4 degrees F above zero! Unreal. I'm going to save this map for posterity even though I know there's almost no chance of this happening. We'll see. The ground hog will definitely not see his shadow because he'll be too cold to venture outside of his hole.

Thank you for all of your input / comments this week. I enjoy hearing about teleconnections and the indexes. So, when you aren't out frolicking in the snow, feel free to drop in and give us your thoughts!

It's looping in the wrong direction...starting with 126 and ending with 114.

A frosty low of 19.6 this morning at sunrise. Temp has risen 25 degrees in the past 2 1/2 hours to a current 45. Must admit, if it can't snow then today's weather looks perfect for a mid-winter day.

A Nice coating everywhere except sidewalks/streets this morning. 0.5" of snow on the board. I could tell without even having to search that the unevenness in the snow layer meant that at least a part or even most of the snow fell with big flakes. The snow melted down to .03" producing an SLR of 17:1. Another thing I did not see but believe happened is that the snow ended at least 2 hours before dawn because my low temp dropped to 25.6 at dawn. Incredible what even a 0.5" of snow can contribute to radiational cooling. Currently I'm at my high for the day at 42.6 degrees with patches of snow that have been shaded all day remaining. So, for just a while longer I have some white to look at in my back yard.

Funny, but every model you posted tonight has me close to or at 1.5". Any snow is hard to believe at the moment with scattered cirrus filtering the just-past-full moon. That allowed my temp to drop to 33.6 about 10 minutes ago, but it now has suddenly risen to 34.3. That must mean the clouds are increasing. A white coating would be nice to wake up to, but who wants to guess how long it lasts? Current dew point is 29.1 and the wet bulb is 31.6. That doesn't bode well for much evaporative cooling although it would certainly accumulate at 33 during the night.

Low of 25 degrees here this morning around sunrise at 7:30am. Racing upward now up to 36. The models seem to be zeroing in on emphasizing Cumberland County as potentially being a jackpot. Maybe instead of 1" I get 2"? The best part, of course, is that nearly the entire event is during nighttime. Hoping for a grass covering even if it's gone by Tuesday.

Well, I've already exceeded my forecast high of 49 degrees by almost 3 degrees. It's 51.6 degrees with full sun and almost no wind. A day or two ago the NWS high temp for today was 55. They should have stuck with that...lol. Oh, my low this morning was 38.1.

What another beautiful late December day with clear skies and light winds all day. Started off the morning with a frosty low of 18.7 degrees and an afternoon high of 51.8 degrees and a mean of 35.3 degrees which is 4.4 degrees above normal for the date. Normal high for tomorrow is 39.0 and normal low is 22.4.

Just after 2pm my temp has risen to 49.1, so hitting 50 seems very likely at this point with full sunshine. It's 40 degrees warmer now than last Friday afternoon!

Matched your high here perfectly...13.5 degrees with a low this morning of 2.3 degrees and a mean of 7.9 degrees. That's easily in the top 10 coldest days / means I've ever recorded. Perhaps even nudging into the top 5 coldest. Today's high was pretty darn close to the coldest daily high I have recorded since moving here 22 years ago. There haven't been many sub-10 degree highs, for sure, in my lifetime. Less than a handful. Right now I'm back down to 11.7 with a forecast low of 10.

Same for me here... +2.3 degrees at 5:05am. Was hoping to reach or break zero but not this time. That leaves my coldest low temperature of the entire year at -0.6F back on January 22nd. A combination of a decent snowpack along with radiational cooling produced that. Remember we had that prolonged cold period for about 3 weeks following a decent snowstorm back in late December, I think. Currently it has warmed back up to 6.6 degrees.

I'm down 20 degrees in the past 5.5 hours from 32 back at 9:50am to 12 now at 3:22. Wind chills just dropping into the negative. Incredible.

Well, the sun is coming out here now so I doubt I see any accumulating snow now. The front came through here at 8:30am when the winds suddenly picked up dramatically. Temp was 37 and didn't start dropping until 9:15. It reached 32.0 at 9:52 and has now dropped almost 9 degrees more to 23.5. I've had flurries on and off but that's been it. Peak wind gust has been 25mph. It's been way higher than that but I can't mount my anemometer in a better location, so winds are always muted. I have patches of snow on the grass still surviving the overnight, but I don't think I can call it more than a trace although there are a few solid patches. Regardless, at least I know now I'm guarantied to have snow on the ground Christmas morning. About an hour ago a look at the Wunderground stations showed that all of Indiana and nearly all of Ohio were below zero. Western Ohio was around 8 below. Amazing stuff that I don't particularly want to experience.

As midnight approaches it continues to rain moderately. Temps have just spiked up 2.5 degrees in the past 15 minutes from 39.9 to 42.4. They're catching up to the previous HRRR temp forecasts for these hours which were running nearly 5 degrees too high. Looks like a total of 2.19" of liquid for today. That consisted of 0.36" of melted snowfall of 3.4". Then, 1.83" of rain has fallen over the past 11 hours. I actually still have almost total snow cover on the grass, but it's heavily compacted and the grass is poking through. If it doesn't rain too much more and the temps hold around here, I might still have at least patchy snowcover come morning before the arctic frontal snow showers arrive. If a new inch falls it will fill back in the breaks to possibly give me back a solid base and an official white Christmas. It will be fun tracking the crashing temps. This is easily one of the most dramatic arctic frontal passages in over 30 years, especially given how temps are going to crash all day long despite any sunshine we have in the mid-day hours. See you all in the morning.

The rain just keeps pouring outside as I listen to the water crashing down the leaders from the roof. Temp now at the high for the day at 39.6. Officially so far, 1.66" of total liquid for the day. Snowfall was 0.36" and the rest 1.30" is rain. The snow is still hanging on. I still have a solid cover of at least an inch...maybe 1.5". Hold on, my precious snowpack...hold on! I wonder if the increasingly colder temps for later tomorrow will come to fruition? We were only forecast to drop to +6F and now it looks like near zero. That's hard to believe, but we'll see. If we are down to zero that's definitely into wind chill warning territory with 40mph gusts. YIkes. Shades of Christmas 1980 more and more.

Where did this forecast come from? Who issued it and what areas were covered? Eastern PA and NJ?

It's been raining lightly here for the past several hours. Temp has very slowly risen to current 33.4 degrees. Looks like I've picked up about 0.10" of rain since the changeover. Had total of 3.4" of snow with 0.36" of liquid for nearly perfect 10:1. Snow is definitely showing signs of compacting, but only 1.5 degrees above freezing slows down the melting a lot. We'll see about later. There's still 3" on the ground of increasingly wet snow.

Had snow flake size and intensity of all varieties during the past hour. It mostly is still oscillating between light and moderate. The intensity was enough to deliver an additional 0.5" to the storm total giving me 3.3" total so far. As I type this the intensity is picking back up again to moderate and enough to accumulate a little bit more. The negating factor now is the temperature which has risen to 31.6 degrees. I'm hearing a tiny bit of melting coming down through the leaders of my gutters. I have now officially exceeded the high end amount that NWS had forecast for me (by 0.3" lol). I really hope I can hold on to at least enough that has some white on the ground after the rain ends overnight. Perhaps we'll be treated to more than a dusting via the cold frontal passage tomorrow morning?

Hey Guys. Well, the hour between 8:15 and 9:15 was just glorious with very heavy snow >1" per hour rates. It's just so beautiful out there with snow falling and no wind. In the last 30 minutes it has diminished to light snow, but all pure snow with no mix (yet). Snowboard is measuring just under 3" at 2.8" officially. I haven't looked yet at any radars so I don't know if anything more of significance is coming (snow-wise). I wonder if it will all be gone by tomorrow morning? If the temp stays close to 35 with the heavy rain, it will take a while to destroy it. I shot about 6 minutes of video during the heavy part so I can play it back on my TV Christmas morning when it's 8 degrees. As intense as the cold and wind are going to be (mostly Christmas Eve), it won't come close to Christmas Day 1980 when temps did not get out of the mid single digits after having dropped to -2F with wind gusts of 30+mph created wind chills of 55 below! That was before the NWS completely revised the official wind chill charts. As I am about to submit this the temp has risen to 30.2 degrees and the snow is picking back up again, approaching moderate. Should be able to reach 3" before the changeover.

I think LSV criteria for WWA for snow is 2-4" range. 5"+ is WSW criteria. Temp has been hovering just below and above 26 degrees with 26.4 right now.

Hey I just got a chance to see my NWS forecast and it went from less than half an inch this morning to now one to three inches. All those short range models showed cumberland county receiving anywhere from 3 to 5 inches. Nice to see some agreement now from NWS for the greater potential. I'm down to 27.5 and dropping. Dew point is 22 and wet bulb is 25.9. So when the precip begins (snow), there won't be much evaporational cooling possible.

No Prob. I never cancelled my monthly subs back in May and just let it keep going. They've got a flash sale going on right now for an annual sub 20% off $99, so $79 for a year. That will save me $40 over 12 monthly payments. The regular and hi res Euro don't provide 10M winds at all, which was quite surprising. Hi res NAM just finished running so here's it's pre and post max gusts: PRE: POST: (Every hourly panel after this one has max gusts in the 30's)

Here's the strongest gust panel from after the front has cleared our area (it's marginally higher at 7am just before the front with 35mph at MDT):

@canderson@Bubbler86Here 'ya go with the gust panel... 12Z NAM max gust panel of entire run (occurs 7pm Thursday in the warm sector. Post front panels all considerably lower)