CarlislePaWx

Here are the two maps with the sleet removed. The event goes beyond hour 96 and that is the 12-hour period where the storm ends as snow:.. First Storm: This map implies that the majority of the event for lsv is sleet, ending as snow before 12z Saturday (when compared to the TT map that includes sleet) And here is the second storm (by itself, without first storm): and finally, here they both are combined... and combined zoomed in for PA... If it plays out like this, it's a real winner (even for most of Lanco!)

While we're on the subject of the Euro, unfortunately it took a rocket-step back. I think the Ukie is playing catch up and is off by 12 hours. Here's last night's 0Z snow map: And here is today's 12Z... And, here is the freezing rain from 0Z... and here is today's 12Z... and finally, here are the total qpf's (nearly 100% of this occurs from the Thur/Fri event)... and here is today's 12z...

Well we know today and tomorrow will be more than 2 degrees below normal. That just might push us up close to 40th (lol). After checking the MDT data we are 2.3 degrees below normal (average). I would think we could make it to -2.5 or -2.6. Just have to wait and see.

10.8 degrees this morning was the best I could do. Still have a good 2-2.5" of white ice-pack. Today marks day 15 of continuous snow cover, which is nearly the entire second half of January. I haven't checked the MDT monthly departure yet but I'm willing to bet they're at least -2 degrees. It seems like it's been so long since we've had a below January. The polar vortex winter ('14-'15?) would have created a below January I'm sure. Temp is up to 17.1 degrees on its way to the upper 20's.

@Blizzard of 93 Ok, I did include something you didn't have which was quantifying the freezing rain portion of the storm as well as the preceding 0.60" of rain. Now I feel better...lol.

Wow, Blizz, as usual I end up composing something that you are a few steps ahead of me with. Maybe there's something there that you left out that I included?

Well, I just scoured through the 12z Euro and wow for this upcoming event. It's going to have almost every form of precip during the course. For MDT it starts off with 0,60" of rain; that is then followed with 0.37" of freezing rain with a significant 0.30" of ice accretion from the freezing rain; then it transitions fairly quickly over to snow (with a likely short period of sleet thrown in too) which quickly accumulates 6". About 1.5" total qpf out of it, which is amazing if it plays out this way. Definitely gets the tracking juices flowing again after our brief 24-hour break. I haven't looked yet but I'm guessing that the arctic air comes running in behind the front which is tilted 45 degrees running SW to NE. Potential fun times ahead as we begin our first week of February.

As of about 10:45 the snizzle has ended and the clouds are breaking and I've even seen a few stars. So, that's it for me for this one. No additional accumulation has occurred since my last post back around 10:00. So recapping...0.1" with round 1 back in the wee hours this morning. 0.3" with round two this evening. Total snowfall recorded for today will be 0.4". I'll melt it down in the morning, if it hasn't all evaporated by then with the wind that has now begun. Looks like 5 mph steady or so now. Will be a lot more in the morning. Season-to-date snowfall now is up to 12.5". Temp continues to drop and is now down to 24.4 degrees. I think tomorrow will likely be the coldest day for my maximum temperature this season with it forecast to barely crack 20 degrees. So far the coldest daytime max has been 24.

Hey hey...I had given up on even checking for anything since the most recent model updates gave me primarily 0". Turns out it is snowing at least lightly and most likely was moderate for a time because I now have a whopping 0.3" of new snow on the board. It has coated everything except for my driveway (so far). Temp has been dropping very slowly and is now down to 27.5 degrees. This new snow plus the 0.1" I had early this morning brings my daily total thus far to 0.4". I hope a little more can fall so everything stays white even with the sun if the high temp tomorrow is only 20 degrees with wind. Glad to see most of us are seeing/reporting coatings. We'll take what we can get, right?

Thanks. I actually thought/remembered that after the post. I have heard that word used before, and will use it myself in the future. BTW, it continues to snow lightly, though with flake size increasing just a tiny bit. Temp down to 32.4 so I expect my snowboard to begin turning white in the next hour, assuming the snow continues...lol.

At 2:50pm I am happy to report that the white drizzle has become heavy enough to cross over into light snow. The temp has risen back up to 34.0, so no accumulations yet. Rest assured, I'll be back later to update everyone when my board officially records 0.1".

After peaking about 90 minutes ago at 36.0 degrees, the temp has slowly been dropping back, now at 33.6. During this entire time white drizzle has been falling with various intensities. I've decided to give ratings to these white drizzle intensities using light, moderate, and heavy. Even heavy would take several hours to accumulate 0.1" with a temp no higher than 32. So, with that having been said it is currently white drizzling lightly. Lightly probably makes up 60% of all the snow that has fallen so far today with about 20% moderate and 20% heavy. As I gaze upon my snowboard, alas, it is bare. I am hoping to at least reach 0.3" in order to call this a victory.

What the NAM giveth (6z)... it also can taketh away (12z)... for example, 6z gave NYC 32.6" and suddenly 6 hours later 12z "only" gives them 12.8" Yikes! I'm kind of glad I'm not having to go through the emotional roller coaster with this one.

One other tidbit... Today is the sixth day this month with measurable snow. Last year I only had 4 days in January. Of the 4 days last year only 1 day recorded > 0.2"! So far this month including today I have had exactly 10.0". Last year I had 4.1" in January.

PS>>>Got enough of a dusting to call it 0.1" officially...lol. The sun is almost about to break through. Temp 28.6

It is so rare for Long Island to get 3 feet for quite a large swath of central. Looks like the 24" line is really close to Queens / western Nassau.

What do you mean by "unburied"? Don't you mean "buried"? I found a small area with even more than 39"...if you look at the lighter colored oval immediately to the right of the "r" in Worcester, that oval is 41".

Thanks, @MAG5035. The run was only up to around 270 when I went to post just that one storm. I went back in to see the rest and it certainly does look nice. Here are several snow maps for the entire 0Z run using Kuchera: First the national map: Next, the northeast regional: And finally, our state: It looks like roughly 80% of PA has over 24" for the 384 hours. A few other notables were the following states which had almost 100% coverage of 24"+. Those states were West Virginia, New York, Vermont, Maine and New Hampshire. Finally, go look down at Alabama which has roughly 50% coverage of 6"+, and Mississippi which has about 20-25% coverage of 3"+. Pretty amazing. Of course I know much of this will change in just a few hours. But, it at least takes a bit of the sting out of our coastal calamity, and also shows that a more permanent pattern of warmth in the East may very well be still more than 2 weeks away.

Hey @Blizzard of 93! Look what we have to look forward to after our rain storm next week! This is Day 9-10 where it appears there is a battle going on between the arctic trying to come back in while fighting off the southeast ridge...

Well, I'm going with the model that gave me, cash, and bubbler the winning prize of 0.2" for the entire event. I really can't get over the Euro hanging on while all others have abandoned ship...lol...get that? Meanwhile, I will enjoy the possibility of coming close to or maybe even exceeding my lowest temperature of this season tonight. Coldest minimum so far was -0.6 degrees back over the weekend. Currently I'm at 8.6 degrees and dropping. This is the earliest in the night I've reached single digits. So, my anticipation for morning is close to zero again or perhaps -1 or even -2. My amazing ice-encrusted 11-day old snowpack is still going strong at 2". I cannot see any grass yet (in my back yard, which faces north.) My small front yard only has a few spots left with more than a trace there. Fortunately, I have a large picture window facing out back which provides me with ample opportunities to be reminded that it is still winter, and we are very close to our climatological bottom for daily average temps. .

That's crazy. You're in the same snow band that I've been in for over 20 minutes and yet I have only virga. It must be the river effect.

Pretty sure MAG showed us a snow map yesterday for this next clipper and it showed the precip only barely making it to me and then nothing east of there unless you were mid sv or north. Laurels were the winner again with 3-4". It's funny, I feel like I'm reliving yesterday as the overcast moved in here pretty quickly after lunchtime and now it's just a dark gray, looking like snow. I don't think lanco sees anything more than flurries to a dusting at best.

My expectations were rather low on this one. The majority of the model runs leading up to this event pretty much kept me under 1". I ended up with 0.3" which was just enough to cover the sidewalks and my cul-de-sac street. The one thing i noticed while outside just now and near the one street light on my street was the incredible crystalline nature of the snow. It looked like a sea of diamonds sending up shimmering reflections of light. The other interesting thing was because the past several mornings have been near or below 10 degrees, the snow immediately began to stick and accumulate on those surfaces even though the temp was close to 34 leading into the clipper. Finally, it's now been 7 continuous days with snow cover, longest stretch of the winter and very likely to last throughout most of this upcoming week.

Flurries! Finally! Temp 32.7.