Terpeast

Much better than the heat we had last week, lower humidity. But still hot with a high of 92 and dews in the U60s/L70s

Total 1.13”, may get a few hundredths more per radar. But pretty happy that I didn’t have to water the garden

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A lot of metrics weren't super positive for the 23-24 El Nino, but we did have major +SSTAs and the global precipitable water broke 15-16's record, as much as 20% greater than the #2 year on record.. so some parts of that El Nino were indeed strong. 

Yeah, we had a screaming STJ. Cold air just didn’t line up with it, only when it took a temporary reprieve we got snow twice from northern stream waves that trended south at the last minute.

0.77” so far

Similar forecast maps leading up to last winter. Gulf coast looks bone dry on that forecast, meaning little/no chance of miller A coastals. So like the last 2 winters, we need to get our snows from northern streamers that trend south or deamplify in short lead times. 

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the more reasonable ask is for a mismatch month....probably January is I had to guess.

Yeah as bluewave says we can look at what the mjo does in Oct to see if we get that kind of mismatch.

I also think we’ll have better blocking because the qbo is negative this time, which is the main difference from last winter and from 22-23. Maybe that means we get an extra episode thrown in, and/or extend each blocking episode by a few days or so. 

1 hour ago, George BM said:

Lol

Incredible. Big hole to climb out of for this winter, it’s possible as it happened last year, but this year it may be harder. 

6 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So it looks like its a coin flip of either a repeat of this past winter and another futility chart topper?

Yep, that’s pretty much what he is saying. And I’m thinking the same. 

Busted on precip, but its so refreshing out. Went for a 30 min run at 68 degrees. 

FYI:

pns25-41_RRFS_legacy_model_cessation.pdf

To save you a click, the topic is about "Soliciting Comments on Proposed Discontinuation of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model and other Regional Modeling Systems to be Replaced by the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) through July 26, 2025."

Reached 98.1 just now, but not sure it’ll go up that much more because clouds are starting to pop up, meaning convective temps have been hit like midatlanticwx says. 

96 already at 11:30 am. 78 dewpoint

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I’m going to top out at 97.9.

Put this ridge over us in mid-late July and we’d be in 2011 territory.

Yeah its only June. Plenty of time for another ridge to build over the top.

Hit 99.7 max, close but no cigar. Down to 97.9. Maybe an hour left for another push to 100, but I don't think it's going to happen

97/74, HI 109 - 1 degree ahead of yesterday. 50/50 I reach 100

91 at 9:30 am, running 2.5 degrees ahead of yesterday. Legit shot at 100 today, probably the better chance than tomorrow. 

Morning low of 75, which is really warm for mby

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Yup! The additional higher dew points has made this feel worse than at any point last year. I mentioned a week or so ago about the higher ground moisture content may curb the air temps a bit, but the humidity will be a bigger problem in the grand scheme. Sweltry is the word for this kind of heat. 

Yep I was thinking the same after all that rain in May thru early June. This humidity is no joke.

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hi of 99F

Low of 78F

Heat Index hit 115 during my mid-afternoon walk after my post night shift sleep. It's been years since I felt anything like this. Have to go back to when I was in Central Texas middle of July in 2022. Yuck

Last year was hot, but iirc dews were lower, upper 60s low 70s. This time it felt like a whole new level.  

29 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Highs:

98 at DCA (99 was the record, way back in 2024)

97 at BWI (1 short of 2024’s record)

96 at IAD (2 short of 2024’s record)

Remember kids, always ignore the Euro surface temps in summer.

Feels like the 96 at IAD doesn’t do justice on how hot it was here. Dews were really high. 75-79 in most obs west of the airport. 

So far 99 for the high, peak HI of 119! 

Currently 98.8/76.3 (114.6 HI)

97.5 for the high, max HI 115

94/105, heat advisory verified

92/75 at noon, HI 104

90 at noon