Terpeast

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Crazy to see that it barely missed me to the north. It was pretty quiet down here. 

24 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Having that warm Pacific blob migrate eastward would fix the winter blahs as well.

And for the west Pac to cool, too. But no sign of that happening yet. 

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Being driven by that ridiculous marine heat wave to the east of Japan and north of Hawaii. 

 

https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1797596879703908370
 

May 2024 in #Japan had a temperature anomaly of +0.67C above normal and was the 16th consecutive warmer than average month. Tokyo hasn't seen any colder than average month since late 2022. Maps by JMA.

https://x.com/MercatorOcean/status/1795090981810819261

This week's Marine Heatwave Bulletin is online! For more data and forecasts, click here https

 

 

 

 

 

 

I still wonder if the discharge of radioactive water off Japan has played, or is playing a role, in this marine heat wave. Perhaps a small role, and its more likely that changes in atmospheric circulations thanks to the WP warm pool is playing a larger role. But I don’t really know for sure.

Also notice the marine heat wave seems to be spreading eastward with its extent all the way south of the GOA. One way we could see wholesale pacific changes is if that heat wave spreads all the way to the western coast of NA, while it abates off Japan and NW of Hawaii. Then we’d circle back to a 2013-15-like pattern. But that remains to be seen whether it happens, if ever. And if it does, it could take a few years.

11 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

A favorable Pacific. Last winter proved it's the latch key.

100%

And we need wholesale changes across the entire basin to make it favorable. 

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

Key West buoy SST in May of 2024 peaked way up at 33.5C/92.3F on 5/29/24! Records go back to 2005. The previous May’s hottest on record was 32.3C/90.1F (2023).

May hottest KW SST
24: 33.5C/92.3F hottest

23: 32.3C/90.1F 2nd hottest

22: 30.7C/87.3F

21: 31.4C/88.5F

20: 30.3C/86.5F 3rd coolest

19: 31.5C/88.7F 4th hottest

18: N/A

17: 31.7C/89.1F 3rd hottest

16: 30.9C/87.6F

15: 31.4C/88.5F

14: 29.7C/85.5F 2nd coolest

13: 30.7C/87.3F

12: 31.1C/88.0F

11: 30.5C/86.9F

10: 31.2C/88.2F

09: 30.8C/87.4F

08: 31.2C/88.2F

07: 29.0C/84.2F coolest

06: 30.8C/87.4F

05: 30.8C/87.4F

 

05-22 May hottest avg: 30.8C/87.4F

For the period 2005-12, the hottest KW SST was 33.6C (in July). Compare that to the 33.5C of 5/29/24!

I know your post is focused on KW (for good reason, huge 2 day jump) but look at the entire Atlantic. It’s effin boiling! I cannot look at this map without being alarmed for our futures, not to mention our local snowfall prospects. 

Low of 47.5

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Here is the 90 day SST bonkers amount of warm anomalies showing up just south of the Aleutians. This will change over time since there is a 12mb file limit on posts.

Such a broad area of warm ssta across 90% of the north pacific makes me suspect that the global circulation cells are expanding northward, resulting in a more northward shift in the jet stream. If this keeps up through winter, we’ll likely see the jet stream blast warm pac air across NA, except it won’t be going underneath as in a nino… but rather over the top. Scary to think about potential temp departures come winter.

In case I wasn't black pilled about this coming winter, I am now.

Seems to be the opposite of last year when I was constantly getting missed and split. Now it seems to hit here with a daily downpour. 

Second round was windier than the first, heavier rain. 

Last year I didn’t get trained on like this. Nice event today

Now this is getting interesting. More wind, coming down in sheets. Vsby down to 1/4-1/8 mile. But no hail, no damaging wind

Edit: dying off now. A good garden wetter. Seen a lot worse. 

Nothing more than a garden variety downpour. Minimal wind. So far

Showers from the incoming cell have commenced. Still a wait and see

Looks like a cell popping up to the west/WSW of me. We shall see if it holds and what path it takes

Cell passed right over my head. Awesome pouring rain and quite a bit of wind, not quite severe but pretty strong. Don’t have to water the garden for a while. 

Just went out for a walk. It’s @87storms’s kind of day out there. Enjoy it!

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Agree. A -PDO/Nina along with +NAO/+AO = SE ridge on roids, especially with the +AMO tendency the last several years to amplify the SE ridge. If there’s no -NAO to “tame” it, then it’s going to run amok

I take no joy in saying this, but I agree with this assessment. 

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The WB 18Z 5/13 run of the CFS control for Feb 2025 has Memphis a whopping 10 C BN/18 F BN the 1981-2010 climo mean of 45.5! 45.5-18 = 27.5. Coldest on record back to 1875 is 32.0, set in 1899 (before GW). Thus, this prog is for a Feb that is 4.5 colder than the coldest on record (going back 149 years) and that record cold Feb was pre-GW.  
As long as WB is going to keep feeding JB ridiculously cold impossible CFS maps like this (WB CFS unfortunately are very flawed), he’ll have ammunition to keep suggesting a good shot at a very cold E US 2024-5 winter:

Memphis climo: 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=meg

TT map for comparison (yes, it’s apples vs oranges)

I mean, I don’t hate this map. With a cold source nearby, it could be workable. But CFS seems to be on its own, and it’s going to change 1000 times (probably correcting warmer in the last minute)

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The only met I’ve read talking at all about a reasonably potential +PDO next winter is JB and that’s based on WB CFS Pacific SSTa maps for then that strongly disagree with other companies’ (including TT) CFS maps. These all show a solid -PDO.

 Currently, the PDO is about as strongly negative as it has been since early Oct of 2023! It has been falling as El Niño has been ending. The NOAA based version is ~-2.5 or lower!

By the daily WCS graph, it’s obvious that the strong nino made a dent in the -PDO, but nowhere enough to flip it positive. With waning nino influence, the PDO is right back as negative as it has been prior to the nino.

It’s going to be a long time before the PDO goes positive, and I don’t know anymore what it will take to drive that. 

2 hours ago, mdhokie said:

You are correct. I guess the cooler periods stand out more because of the effect on outdoor activities. I think it was wxusaf who said we are either torch or cold, not getting the actual "average" of the month. 

Worth noting that the magnitude of warm anomalies, however short-lived they may be, have been becoming more extreme and are skewing most months AN. 

If we have a month with 3 weeks of -2 departures, then 1 week of +15, that month is going to end up at least +3 AN or even higher. (You can play with the math and see how it works out)

For example, remember that 80 degree day in this January? Take that day away, and Jan 2024 actually ends up just around normal temp wise. 

Checked ouside at 3:30 am, didn’t see anything. One more chance tonight

Sunny out, hoping to catch curtain sightings tonight at around 9-11 pm before I go to bed

While we’re looking far ahead, CFS is projecting a crazy active tropics.

I hope folks from lesser antilles up through VA beach are prepared to board up or have evac plans. If I lived in Florida, I’d be packing a Go bag right about now.

CanSips - YIKES

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Fantasy run....WB Long range...

Is it just WB or is the CFS predicting that most of the NH except the pole is gonna go colder than the 1981-2010 normal? 

Missed it early this morning, but will BOLO for it tonight