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Calderon

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Calderon

  1. I'm growing more concerned for the main part of Fort Polk with the potential of a northward turn in the track. It's a huge base but the main complex of buildings and all is very dense.
  2. It may miss all of that and hit the timber facility between Rosepine & Fort Polk, as well as a tech college.
  3. There are a couple subdivisions and at least 1 trailer/rv park. It's going to be a very close call for Rosepine proper. The debris ball has taken a sharp north turn, so we're likely going to get a new cycle.
  4. LCH seems to be waiting a little too long for my comfort to issue the downrange warning. It's less than 5 miles from the polygon edge and still no warning for Vernon Parish yet.
  5. I have an aunt that lives in Rosepine itself and it's making a beeline right at the town.
  6. If storms do move into the Metroplex, I'd be willing to place a nice wager on a big hailer moving through Collin County.
  7. Live Storms Media put out an on-site interview and good damage inspection of the site in question for the Bassfield EF4, for now, and really shows the foundation and anchoring extremely well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQpTt_FLX84
  8. Good thing the second cell didn't latch onto the OFB and produce because it went through a highly commercialized and residential section of Valdosta.
  9. Meanwhile off the LA/MS coast, an interesting SMW.
  10. Funnel cloud reported west of West Columbia, TX.
  11. Rotation aloft continues to gradually build but still needs to tighten up more, and with more heavy showers developing in the inflow catchment area, not sure if it'll go all the way before moving offshore and becoming a shipping and rig hazard,
  12. Also watching a pair of cells northeast of Victoria, TX. The northern one does have some mid-level rotation evident and moving into an undisturbed environment as it moves towards the southern half of metro Houston.
  13. New TOR watch for MS has some intense probs. 90/70 for a non-PDS watch is rather interesting.
  14. No, at least per SPC guidance of 12Z to 12Z next day for reports.
  15. CHS is doing there surveys currently and have not released any preliminary ratings, other than the potential EF2 at Edisto Beach.
  16. Ah, gotcha, there was a little confusion. I can respect that rating because clearly there was a flaw in construction. .
  17. I thought that pic was from the 2nd tornado in the Bassfield supercell? .
  18. My problem is the vegetation and grass immediately adjacent to the foundation. One would expect an EF5 to not only have the force to do that to a house, but also chew up the grass and trees around it. The tree partially laying on the slab is appears to be either a Laurel Oak or Water Oak, but very easy tree to knock over and/or split. It happens frequently in summertime storms in the southeast. A majority in the background were pine, which are softwood and pliable, but there’s a substantial amount of surface bark left. Unless there is more drastic damage out there we haven’t seen pics of yet, I see it staying at EF4. .
  19. So how many TOR Emergencies did we wind up with from this outbreak, nearly 2 dozen?
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