gravitylover

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Everything posted by gravitylover

  1. When people get to criticizing model performance I start thinking 'is it just in the micro that the criticism is warranted or are "the models" off on a bigger scale?' Looking back over the last few eeks it seems that weather models are really pretty good in the big picture. We get a better idea now than ever before what might happen in a few days or a week+ than most of us could come up with with the best education if all we had was dot matrix printouts, like we had when I was in college, of current conditions around the world. We would sit there for hours analyzing what we saw and extrapolating potentials for a three day forecast and we were usually close but not as close as these models are at ten days. Do I expect the details to be really good within three days on the current crop of models? Sort of. I know what it takes to get really good results. I think that the product we get now is fantastic but thinking that any computer model can suss out nuances to within 25 miles is too much to expect. Within three days I'm happy to see that they show a storm within 100 miles to be honest, in 5 days 200 and ten days if they show a storm anywhere between Cape Hatteras and NS I feel obligated to learn more about it..
  2. Over 4" now and snowing harder than at any point the last few hours. 17*, no wind at all and beautiful dendrites.
  3. Only went to -8 at my house -4 at the local high school. So, big dump or icy, sleety glacier building episode upcoming?
  4. 8* now. Guess I shoulda put the new battery in the wifes car. Eh, it's a stick so a little roll start... She'll be fine
  5. I don't know exactly what I got down to last night but the local high school made it to 3*. When I drove by there last night on the way home it was 10 and when I got home it was 6 so "extrapolated" I'm guessing I got to about -1 So, what's the current thinking for Wednesday? I like the map DT put up that has the lower HV in 12+
  6. No to the long gentle thaw. Sorry I'm at the top of a hill so I want it to all run off before the ground thaws so my basement stays dry. Once the ground thaws hydrologic pressure, melting snow and multitudes of springs soak this hill pretty thoroughly. If you live in a floodplain, well, move uphill
  7. A very pretty 4" today. Driveway is getting narrower as the banks get taller and wider. Where to put what's coming next week...??
  8. Anybody else have a fresh coating of snow hiding the black ice this morning? Should be a fun ride...
  9. It finally got above freezing here around 3pm and the bulk of the ice melted off the trees, power lines and streets. Ought to be a kick when it gets cold tonight Hopefully some sun tomorrow dries things out a bit before the next one.
  10. She made it safely Subaru FTW!! I'm still holding at 25* but it's been raining for almost an hour now. Ice is getting past the 1/4" mark now
  11. Hangin' tough at 21* Trees are starting to get glazed now so I'm assuming it's mixed sleet and freezing rain. My wifes boss told her that if she doesn't make it in by 10 yesterday was her last day at that job but that he would be working from home. I think I may have to head to his house and "explain" to him how rotten his attitude is
  12. My temp is slowly rising here. Started at 16 and heavy snow for a few hours then as the temp approached 20 it changed to sleet. It's been sleeting now for almost two hours and, well, yuck Temp now is 21 at the house and 24 down on Rt 6 with heavy sleet. What are the chances it gets above freezing at the surface?
  13. Damned ice dams I think I broke my nose this afternoon. I was on the ladder whacking away at the ice at the edge of the roof and a chunk, had to be 20+ pounds, broke loose. It hit me in the face because I was watching what I was doing, as any sane person would when whacking their house with a 3 pound mallet. F'n thing hurts...
  14. So what are we thinking for the HV Monday night-Wed? Where's the rain/ice line gonna end up? I just spent three hours breaking the ice dams off my roof. Split my nose open twice and had blood running down my face
  15. When I got in the car it said 7* but as I went through the hollow at the bottom of my hill it went down to 0*!
  16. My numbers seem to jive pretty well with other spots in the Taconic/684/22 corridor except the guy in Somers. He's been about two or three inches high all three times this year. Wow, did you guys check out that list from Upton? From New Fairfield down through Ridgefield were all over 20"!
  17. 14". Do I win? I'm starting to miss the winters where we got it 3-5" at a time. My shoulders/wrists/back are too old for this 12+ at a time
  18. Well it was interesting for a little while but now it's back to moderate snow. Just east of me it's still the real deal under that band, check out some of these cams from Danbury - http://web.ci.danbury.ct.us/trafficams/
  19. CBS in NYC is Accuweather now so that should have been expected after what Henry M said earlier.
  20. This - ...THE CHAIN REACTION AND EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CREATE SNOW MUSHROOM CLOUDS AND STELLAR DENDRITIC SNOW CLUSTER FALLOUT. WELL...THAT MIGHT BE OVERSTATED A LITTLE BIT...
  21. I too would be happy with 6-10 but would like more so I don't have to go to work early tomorrow. I really want this to start and end later so I don't have to go in at all. I really expect the trip into the city to suk.
  22. I too was informed that unless it's illegal for me to be out on the roads I'm expected to be at work. The owner is out of the country with his son (asst. mgr) and my other assistants wife is expecting ~20th. My luck she'll pop a bit early So did anybody get a look at 0 and 6z info yet? Looks like the jackpot might be ever so slightly east/northeast of us but we look to do alright with a foot or more by the end of the day Wednesday.
  23. I think the Somers one may be just a touch high. I'm at almost the highest elevation in the area and Somers is right at the end of my block. I don't think I got over 8". What I did notice coming home last night is that south of about Yorktown there is noticeably less than from there up with the obvious demarcation between nuisance snow and winter storm being right around I 287. I never thought I'd say this but, why does the most active period of the winter so far have to be when my boss and asst. mgr. are out of the country on vacation and the wife of the other asst. mgr. is due next week? Can't the snow just hold off until the last week of the month
  24. Heh, forgot to add a trip report - The roads were getting covered at 7:30 when I left Mahopac and the Taconic/Sprain/BRP/FDR were just wet all the way in. Easy, smooth commute. The heavy stuff is just getting here (downtown) now. Temp ranged from 22* at the north end to 32-33 here.