gravitylover

I didn't expect the precip to start as sleet but that's what I've got falling. Temp popped from 30/31 all afternoon to 34 just before it started.

Still cold and winds out of the NNE. Not feeling the wetness that's forecasted.

The ground is frozen so any rain that falls will run off creating flash floods. If there are a few inches of snow that also melt quickly with rising temps and rain there will be a lot of water running over the surface. It's still below freezing here, never went above today. From what I've had a chance to look at in thinking 6-8 and a change to sleet unless the cold air to my NW stops pressing and allows a quick warm punch into the mid levels then the ice forecast (debacle) happens.

I'm not feeling the warming trends. I do see some mid level warmth, always did, so expect an icy component. That worries me because after the storms and excessive wetness last year there are a lot of weak trees so I expect power problems. Usually that would just be an unpleasant hassle but with the super cold air behind this it could be dangerous. Even though I know better I keep hoping the cold air press will overwhelm the warm push and we won't see anything worse than sleet.

^^ Yeah it hurts to read the storm thread. Waffle waffle, I give up, crushed, this sux.... Pain.

We have a tree guy coming to take down a couple of leaners this morning before the storm. One that was bad got much worse recently and is now at about 25* towards the neighbors bedroom so it has to go. I don't have time to analyze so I'll just ask, which model is initializing closest to the actual storm center? Does its solution for later look reasonable? Snow, ice, sleet, what's the plan and what's the timing?

Thanks for the heads up Walt. It's not exactly what I want to hear though ;)

If you come to the interior thread we have margaritas and pina coladas flowing

Less ice less ice

~.5". I didn't get out early enough and it had already begun melting and sublimating when I measured over .3".

Maybe .5. Looks nice though.

I prefer margaritas. 8-12? 4-8 maybe before the frozen stuff. If, IF, some of the posters in the main storm thread are reading things right I guess it's possible the storm center stays far enough south and offshore to keep the winds favorable up here leading to the higher total snowfall numbers. That sounding JC posted though kind of show lower ratios, here I'm thinking even lower than that 7 or 8:1, 5 or 6 seem more likely. I'd like to see a sounding for Danbury.

It was more like $1100 yesterday at my local HD.

A ride on is a strong consideration. The dic is suggesting I don't use a push type mower this year so one the is a mower and can handle a blade or blower is what I'd want but not sure I can afford it right now and storing something that expensive outside kind of bugs me.

Yeah that's the one I liked best, the 24 Deluxe. Glad to hear that you like it. The newest model has a clip that holds 2 shear pins so they're easily accessible, seems like a nice touch. I am curious about the Toro but based on how tough my Cub Cadet mower has been I think I'd lean that way.

I could almost see it if the bay was frozen and the ocean slushed over like last year. A sand bar that holds no heat at all would actually become a heat sink a few feet above sea level.

I think he means his uncles knowledge and experience. He has none

I keep thinking (hoping) I'll be out of here but it never happens. Now that I know my kids have at least a few more years of college and we need to be here to keep the costs in line my hopes have been dashed By the time I do get to move to the Lower Keys they'll be underwater.

Haha no, when I said picked up I meant purchased. My wife did the lifting

Ice, snow, rain aaaahhhhh I just picked up 80 pounds of salt and 100 pounds of sand. Going to mix it 40/50 in 5 gallon buckets and put them at either end of the driveway. If I can't shovel at least we'll be able to move in and out. I also just spent some time looking at snowblowers for the first time seriously rather than just in passing. There sure does seem to be a significant difference between Ariens and most others with Cub Cadet not too far behind. It also seems that 2 stage will be more cost effective and lower maintenance over time. Am I reading this right?

Try harder. It may not have happened in your backyard but it has several times 40-50 miles north of you.

The ground is already frozen 2" down up here. Any liquid precip will freeze instantly.

Looks like 10-14 for me.

Too much reliance on a particular index, in this case the MJO, will bite you in the bum. Using any index should just be one tool in your bag. Thanks to @PB COLTS NECK NJ for a better mixed outlook than so many here.

When I lived in Tahoe forecasts like that were pretty common for about 7 weeks. Those periods were awesome.