gravitylover

Ok so not temp but hours of sunlight? 

I think it's the very wet late season and accompanying warm soil temps and the lack of cool nights to start the trees producing the sugars that create the vivid colors. I think it's a similar process to how Maples are better sap producers in the spring when it's warm days and cold nights. Lets see if the trees that are still summer green turn rapidly now, especially after the next two nights, and if they get vivid or just fade away. I'd say that it's well over half of the trees in the suburban neighborhoods by me are still summer/late summer green while ~35% turned and have dropped/are dropping their leaves.

Yup, I had a foot of cement. It was a mess. We had no power for 6 days after Sandy then another 5 after the snow. 

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Besides 2011 what were the other ones?  In 2012 we had 8" of snow after Sandy in the first week of November.

It up it was pre Halloween not November. We even had trick or treating cancelled by the town here because they felt it was too dangerous for people to be out on the streets with all the trees and branches down.

Well, shoot. My wife and I have been debating whether or not to commit to a 2 day outdoor event (in the hills of Dutchess County) on 11/3-4 to kick off holiday sales for her new small business. I'm not comfortable pre-paying for a spot that may be cold and wet if this end of the month scenario plays out to the cold side which appears to be the consensus at the moment.

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Funny that song was playing on the radio today, 60s tribute. Never heard it before today. 

Wow. Look him up, he did some fun tunes.

10 hours ago, forkyfork said:

fall forecast: cloudy

Sometimes your brilliance is truly inspiring  

33 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

No telling what costume the GFS will be wearing when this baby gets here:

 

It does seem that a lot of models have a strong signal for a significant storm in the region. Yup, tough to tell how it might play out two weeks ahead of time but I like the general agreement in the guidance. 

12 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Looks like tomorrow is the last hurrah for the every-other-day rain cycle for a while. It'll be sorely missed I'm sure. 

 

I sure hope so. While it has been "fascinating" to watch the last 7 months it sure will be nice to wake up to blue skies and want to spend the day outside. Today is ultra gloomy  

Wouldn't that be something. Snow on the ground for 3 Halloweens in this decade.

^^Boulder got more than that, my daughters friend in college there sent her some pics this morning.

It's still raining heavily and 45* where I am in the NW CT hills. 

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the wake of the rainfall associated with a passing cold front and tropical storm Michael, New York City's 2018 precipitation has reached 49.83". That figure ties 2018 with 1936 as New York City's 34th wettest year on record. New York City still has more than two-and-a-half months to add to its figure.

2018 is already among the 20 wettest years in numerous cities in the Middle Atlantic, Southeastern, and southern New England regions. Select locations:

Baltimore: 55.41" (8th wettest)
Bridgeport: 45.52" (21st wettest)
Harrisburg: 51.16" (8th wettest)
Islip: 47.34" (19th wettest)
Richmond: 52.18" (16th wettest)
Washington, DC: 51.34" (13th wettest)
Wilmington, NC: 87.36" (wettest year on record)

The rankings relate to total annual precipitation figures, not year-to-date figures.

Based on both the historical climate record (1869-2017) and recent period (1971-2017) when a wetter regime appears to have developed, it appears more likely than not that 2018 will be among New York City's 10 wettest years on record.

Some probabilities:

Historic Data:
50" or more: >99%
55" or more: 91%
60" or more: 41%
65" or more: 4%

10th wettest (58.42"): 60%

1971-2017 Data:
50" or more: >99%
55" or more: 92%
60" or more: 56%
65" or more: 13%

10th wettest (58.42"): 71%

Historic extremes (October 13-December 31):
Least precipitation: 3.14", 1998
Most precipitation: 20.37", 1983

Mean precipitation: 9.42"
1971-2017 mean precipitation: 10.78"

It would be nice if I was only at ~50" for the year so far, it's closer to 60 here.

More rain :sigh: 

That gives a good general idea of what happened but even within it there are microclimates that were substantially higher. That and the fact that so much of the rain this year was convective so if it missed the station or got "hidden" behind a range of hills it wasn't recorded properly like the 10"+ day that the Fairfield CT area had recently. I run into a problem where that blank cone coming out of Uptons radar is directly over me and the radar estimates of rainfall are so far off it's not even funny. On a couple of those maps there's a hole over my town and the high ranges of hills here. I know that we get more rain than Danbury but on every one of them it shows up that we got less. I go through the local WU sites a couple of times a week and the numbers are usually 20-30% higher than KDXR and are at least that much higher than KPOU (frequently higher) and the two local Mesonet sites are usually 10-20% higher but it doesn't look like those were included in these maps. The Catskills are pretty well monitored because it's the primary fresh water source for NYC and there are some decent numbers coming out of this area along the Croton River system but it misses the hilly area differences. I'd say that the 'high country' areas of the Taconics and just east did at least as well as the Catskills and in some cases better so we're at that 30" (or more) also even though these maps show mid 20's. I'd like to see the similar maps for the calendar year.

9 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

-15F on 1/7 and 93F on 6/18 for a 108-degree range here.

-14 and we topped 100 more than once. Serious spread!

1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

 

To be honest, even I'm getting tired of the humidity, and I love the heat.  Plus, like you said, we've had way too much rain and cloudiness around.  

Interestingly enough, all the doors in the house have slightly swelled.  In fact, the hallway closet is really hard to open and close.  

However, I have to say, I wish we could get some nice Fall weather to transition us into the season.  This upcoming week will be a bit of a shock, and some mid-60's with pure deep blue skies would be great.

Our back door is a struggle to open and everything in the basement is getting mildewy. I'm soooo looking forward to a dry stretch so I can open things up to dry them out.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

models showing a screw zone for rains N and W of NYC-euro, nam and GFS all show it to some degree

This is one time I'll look forward to getting screwed. #nomorerain

22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Brutal in Manhattan today. I cannot wait for some legit fall weather to work in. 

I could easily see is being just to far north for the Michael precip and just too far south for the front. Winds should be pretty gusty Friday morning out of the north which will bring down any loose leaves as we have had a lack of even moderate winds lately 

We need some wind to dry things out. Unfortunately it will bring down some rotted trees and branches but I guess that's the price we need to pay.

It was kind of weird having a day that it didn't rain. It did start out super foggy so everything is still wet and the mosquitoes are thick like midsummer. Here's to hoping Michael will change things up for a bit and we can get some fall type weather here even if it's just for a short period.

51 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

We just can't get rid of this garbage.  Everything is soaked.

Just soaked and soggy. I'm so over this isht 

And again... Visibility is just a couple hundred feet with dense fog and mist. Another very warm overnight minimum too, it looks like it stayed above 60*.

This dense heavy mist is depressing.

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Too early to tell. 12z run of GGEM that just came out has it going right over us thursday late afternoon and early evening. Good batch of very heavy rain for us on the GGEM.

At this point there is no such thing as a good batch of heavy rain. It's so soggy tree branches are just rotting and falling and my yard is soaked to the point that if I step a few feet off the walkways I sink to the top of my shoes.

^^Please not next weekend. I'm never one to back down from a great storm but give us a nice weekend.

Lets hear it for another rainy day 

9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

As it looks now the cool down and shift into autumn will begin Oct 12 and  should peak Oct 13-15.  We'll see how low we can go those days.  Looks quite active too so may see incresed rain after recent dry few weeks....

 

 

What dry few weeks? Not here.

8 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

at least it's been dry-but agree bad forecast from Friday which had partly sunny both days

See above. It rained again most of last night.