gravitylover

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we usually don’t find out the temperature threshold until it has already past. And there could be multiple thresholds which factor into our seasonal snowfall. One is the warming local average winter temperatures which result in declining snowfall averages over time. Another is a SST threshold in a part of the world like the MJO 4-7 regions which shift the storm tracks and lead to warmer local temperatures and lower seasonal snowfall. The record snowfall from 09-10 to 17-18 may have also been related to warming in some area of the planet which created the forcing patterns necessary for so many amazing snowfall seasons. But we may have surpassed that goldilocks snowfall zone when the 15-16 super El Niño resulted in the big jump in global temperatures. Almost like the 15-16 to 17-18 winters while warm, still had the lingering heavy snowfall pattern which seemed to emerge around 02-03 and peaked during the 2010s. Following the 17-18 winter, we have been been struggling with both warmer temperatures and unfavorable Pacific patterns leading to also unfavorable storm tracks and storm day temperatures. We did have a great 20-21 season but NYC couldn’t rival the 50”+ seasons like 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. January 22 was also a great month out on Long Island, but more disappointing around NYC to CNJ. 

You mention the "Goldilocks period", it was called that as far back as 50 years ago in a scientific journal I used to read in elementary school. There was a lot of discussion about how that zone might evolve as thresholds were reached and, for the most part, it was right. Over the ensuing decades I've watched the progression and been impressed with the understanding that those scientists had back in the mid 70s, long before anyone else was blowing that horn.

15 hours ago, Cygnus X-1 said:

Yeah, and I live on a GIANT glacial moraine in NY called Long Island.

Was it Mammoth farts that melted the Laurentide Ice Sheet?

Hot dogs!!!

Lush grasses, fruits and beans moved north into their territory as the climate changed. This made them more gaseous than before...

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

My uncles place mid way between Scranton and Binghamton at 1900’ got 6”. So you just missed out on good banding. It was a lack of precip issue. I’ll be there this weekend. 

You should stop on the way and ski at the newly reopened Holiday Mt. New owner and rebuilt or refurbished everything. 

I had a solid 2-3mm coating on everything, it even managed to freeze on the car windows enough to need scraping. Two mornings in a row with just enough to make it look wintry and to keep the surface muddy. Yay. 

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Or move Long Island about 150 miles south?

The tolls on a 150 mile bridge would be insane!

It's been flurrying for hours, at least since 2am, and there's a nice coating on everything. It looks nice. 

That flurry line last night was interesting 

A half inch jackpot is something to cheer about now? Shit...

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this hasn't been 97/98. there has not been a massive GoA low wrecking everything. one hasn't formed at all, the patterns after Dec have been very different

Yeah but the effects have been similar enough to make this winter suck nearly as much. 

3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Got 0.7 inches overnight mostly this morning when nothing showed on radar. Anyone else get that? Usually don't se a prolonged period of moderate snow with nothing on the radar. 

I didn't bother measuring but it looked like a soggy half inch. Nothing on radar here either. 

It looks like a late March/early April kind of snow accumulation, wet, spotty and melting rapidly. Yuck. April in January kinda sux.

It's been flurrying here since about 9pm and it's still snowing now. It was at or above 32 until a few hours ago so everything is coated but nothing significant. 

edit: I forgot to add that it's been stuck at 30° for a few hours so that insignificant coating is pretty crunchy. 

56 minutes ago, snywx said:

You have to go above 700’ here to find any evidence of accumulation. Currently all snow above 900’ with about 1” otg above 1200’. You had to be above 2000’ to see anything substantial 

Yup 700 here too but the roads were slushy in Brewster at ~400' around 7:30. I84 was wet from Waterbury to the west side of Danbury when it got grainy. 

34/34/ESE2/RN+  I've had some pellets mixed in but only a few times. 

2 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

This is a tough one with thermals but if you are around 1000 in elevation you should get more than that I would think. We will find out soon enough. 

705 - Borderline. I'll be in Cheshire CT for most of the day though so I'll have to watch it through the security cams. 

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Expecting 1-2 in the HV 20 miles north of 84. Elevated areas should do pretty well. 

I'm a few miles south of 84 and I'm expecting a half inch of white rain! I figure if I keep my expectations low I can't be too disappointed

35 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

18z NAM held ground from the 12z run

 

I think that NW CT jackpot is a little too enthusiastic. 

Snow or nothing! Everything is so soggy...

Hardcore back-loaded winter? Maybe, but I'm not feeling it right now. It seems to me that you'd need some real cold somewhere to be able to generate enough to do us any good down here and there isn't much to draw from and build on.  

I've been saying pretty much the same thing about the PNW for decades. Constant rainforest type wetness is miserable but we get more rainfall annually than they do particularly here in the reservoir zone 45 miles from the Sound. For the last 7 months it's been equally as soggy plus we've had the torrential rains that they rarely get adding another ~25" of total precip making it doubly unpleasant. We also use an inordinate amount of road salt which ruins our cars... 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

when did Mother Nature decide that we're in Ireland?

 

I haven't looked it up but I have a feeling that the 70+ inches of rain I've had since June is wetter than the average annual anywhere in Ireland. 

It's been 6 straight months of shit weather. 

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah it was around March 10th or so.   It was 33-34 in most of the area here with white rain or minor accums on the grass-inland and elevated areas got crushed

I dunno about crushed but it was the only storm that gave me more than 6" last year, I think I got 9". blah 

Temp popped above 32 and the fog formed. At 33 now and the vis is dropping fast. I hate when I can see the melted snow hanging in the air... 

It flaked lightly for a while here too.