tavwtby

forgot to put the snow board back up so I'm improvising, I don't expect I'll need more than this...

i saw a flake ..start the obs thread!!! couple small stragglers, but it's definitely looking and feeling like it's coming now compared to about an hour ago, wind is also increasing a bit...radar downstream in CPA looking stout, we'll see if it all comes together

thinking ratios play a factor in someone getting 6" of fluff vs someone getting 6" of lower ratio stuff with more QPF, think WOR would be high amounts but less QPF, then a good forcing band where it's not as cold in the DGZ.... thoughts?

so you're saying there's a chance??

ALY hoisted warning a few minutes ago... still saying 7+", 8.6 over my head...

I think some are going to be getting just that and some 15:1 fluff

I'm going to stick with 3-6 until I see it on the ground, but having the Euro cave and come around is less of a red flag, what does anyone think? it was chasing convection out east, or the front placement too far east? odd that it was the only one really that far east, maybe the others that are so far west can tick east so everyone is white and no p type issues.

one I posted a few hours ago had 11 over my head, back down to 9 now, however the message remains what it always was for the watch.

ALY already bringing em down, I'd expect this to be halved in 12 hours... more like 3-6 lollis to 8 under good banding, really not liking euro camp not in alignment, big red flag for the goods for everyone

the Euro solutions are a bit concerning, either it's on its own and right or out to lunch and others are onto it, flat and strung out is not what we want, despite the local office calling for double digits here, I'd hedge and say 4-6 until I see the Euro come on board with the other guidance.

that's about where I'd expect the best DGZ, from around HPN up to NEMA should rock if it plays out right

The way it appears is 2-4/3-6 wherever that fronto band sets up could rip for a bit with 6+ lollies...just spit balling maybe from HPN up to PIT gets in on a good banding...with that cold crashing into the precip shield should be interesting to see. Let's see what the NAM spits out tomorrow, or if others align with the Canadian...doesn't that model have a NW bias, or am I thinking of the GFS SE bias?

looks like there may be a sharp cut off from frozen to wet, and some decent mid level stuff just NW of where that demarcation is, if this holds... still time to go here, would like to see more alignment offshore, and not huggin and runnin inland.

perhaps we need a new croupier to deal out the threads...

just capped an inch of the most perfectly stacked dendies in shaded areas, you can see right through it, that last hour was some decent stuff, congrats NEMA on advisory criteria...was one even issued?

nice burst of snow suddenly, areas shaded have about a half inch, despite the melting, at least it's white now, be gone tomorrow but if it's going to be cold please at least snow. I'll take...

not that it's worth it but .25" here in Winsted pixie dust stuff

we need to get a good bowling ball come down and pop off the coast to ease the tension a bit, I'd love for a region wide KU with wind etc, but I'll settle for something in the cold that's been around for awhile now, shame to waste it.

High at my station was 33.1 today, but most stations around the area never went above freezing...quite the temp gradient to be mid 40s 20 miles away.

From all the data I collected prior to me moving here, and the last 12 years of living here...these are the averages for my area...granted there were a couple of years with missing data, but those were not small total years, so margin of error on the upside I would guess, but since we moved here, we only had 4 years that were about average, with 16-17 being the winner with just over 90". The first two winters were good too, over that average, and good pack if I recall in 13/14 and 14/15. Obviously the 20's are only half complete (and include the 11" this season) but not looking so good as far as averages go, we'd need to rock for a couple years to get there. AVG. 89.27" MAX- 177.46"- 1955/56 MIN- 27.15"- 2015/16 73.31" - Average 30's 89.10" -Average 40's 105.45" -Average 50's 118.45" -Average 60's 106.40" -Average 70's 83.14" -Average 80's 78.45" -Average 90's 68.73" -Average 00's 72.00" -Average 10's 36.82" -Average 20's

If the Euro can come into the party, and we are still seeing consistency with the GFS/GEFS within 96 hours, I think we have a pretty high confidence...of course anything has taught us in the past that anything can and will happen, I am almost skeptical until go time at this point...or wait until the NAM spits out it's 60+ inch amount run...

yeah I'd prefer that too, usually when they cash in I'm not far behind, usually do best here with canal runners from Montauk

well, it's gone from 46 to 36 in about 2.5 hours, winds definitely picking up too...