WNash

While there is model support for El Nino, it's too early to determine whether it would be Modoki or an eastern Pacific anomaly: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/june-2018-enso-update-el-niño-watch

Beautiful. What kind of acreage?

Bertrand Chaffee Hospital is a full service medical center in Springfield! About 1400 feet above sea level, and within about five miles there are 2000 ft hilltops, plenty rural and woodsy.

Oh ok - I was looking at a lightning map earlier and it was firing off near Atlantic City where it was definitely rain.

That band that has been moving through Western NY during the morning really crapped out fast. By the time it passes through Buffalo in the next half hour, it isn't likely to be more than a short period of wind gusts. I don't have my hopes up for much, but even that minor burst of snow seems to have been too much to hope for.

Nice convection, but I always feel like thunder during frozen p-type that isn't snow is a bit of a cheat, because graupel, sleet, and hail just generate so much more frictional charge than dendrites. I mean, you have to have pretty intense convection for actual thundersnow in a synoptic storm, which is awesome and rare. LES thundersnow is cool, but I remember hearing thundersnow when I lived in Boston during the March 1993 coastal blizzard, and that made a huge impression on me. I think we can all agree that people who freak out about thunder during graupel or sleet events are rank amateurs.

NWS in Buffalo is very averse to blizzard warnings anywhere in its zones. But then again, nearly every location in WNY would verify a blizzard at least once a season and probably many more times than that for most. On the other extreme, BOX hands out blizzard warnings like the pope hands out wafers. I’ll take the actual blizzard conditions without the headline over fake news blizzards.

Thunder snow up here in NE Buffalo!

Incredible experience. We were at Cedar Hill Park north of downtown Nashville, and some scattered cu broke up about 45 minutes before totality, giving us a clear view.

We have had probably 20" this winter, about half of which came in one storm. The rest has fallen in small increments, while areas to the south have gotten huge amounts. By contrast, 25 miles south of here, they're over 100 inches with half the winter still to go. Part of it is geography amd part of it is bad luck. Point is exactly what you said, the snow is always deeper on the other side.

I moved from Tennessee to Buffalo about four years ago, and I can tell you that I have seen the snow clouds for epic multi-foot storms, including the Nov 2014 70" storm, just 3-5 miles south and never come any closer. I have to live where I live for work, and in my part of the area we do get some decent snow from time to time, but even up in the Great Lakes you would be amazed at how often you can find yourself in the screwzone.