WNash

lmao

This is an instance of how Watertown can be jackpotted by a 240 flow off Ontario while Springville gets buried under a 270 flow off Erie (leaving Buffalo partly cloudy and bone dry). We’ve seen this at least a half dozen times in the last few years.

Yeah I live a couple miles due west of the north side of the airport and we have had less than three inches total.

Pass

Watertown has actually had multiple great LES events in recent years. Buffalo used to get a good event every few years, but it has been over a decade since a big event hit the city from downtown to the north. There have been several great chances for a big snow on the last five years, but every time there’s a great set-up, one variable - shear, moisture, flow, temp profile - changes during the nowcast. It’s either a very bad run of luck or a climatological problem. Unfortunately, it keeps happening. Last year we got bailed out by several moderate synoptic events in the last third of the season, but we have had a run of anomalously low LES years recently.

We now have partly sunny skies. So much for this early start to snow season. Hopefully the next few days don't take too much heat out of Lake Erie. I wouldn't mind +10F above average temps and dry conditions for a couple of weeks (not that we will get it).

Here’s our “squall” line

Lake Erie has a finite amount of thermal energy that is exhausted part way through met winter. On average, it hits 32F in the first week of February, and the closer it gets to freezing the lower the delta-t values. So a cold, unproductive November is bad news for Buffalo snowfall. The "squall" line is coming through here now. Light snow, small flakes, visibility for miles.

I'll take a reset on this garbage start to the winter season.

The cold front is coming through, but we're just getting light pingers. When will we ever get something to overperform? Or even perform as forecasted? We can't even meet minimal advisory criteria.

Yeah we got maybe an inch. Totally squandered potential as the lake lost 6 degrees over the last few weeks.

Wire to wire cold means that by January 20, Lake Erie will be locked up with solid ice from Buffalo Inner Harbor to Grosse Ile. I’m not interested in frigid winter days with cloudless skies, total sunshine, and ripping winds for half of the meteorological winter. If I wanted brutal cold, bright sunshine, and a 20 inch seasonal snowfall total, I would live in Minnesota.

Had a nice burst of snow in NE Buffalo a couple of hours ago, then after 15 minutes it went to rain and then stopped. I'm at UB North now and it's a bright sky despite the low cloud layer. Utterly disappointing. I'm ready for a month of above normal temps and then we can try this winter thing again. Maybe the Niagara Frontier will finally have a winter where we're not getting consistently shafted.

It’s mid November. If ROC and BUF miss out on this one, we have 4-5 months to make up for it. That November 2016 storm that brought 8-20 inches to most of western and central NY gave zero to Buffalo, anything we get this early is just bonus snow.

Cejka is good on TV but very weak on interpretive skills. Pretty much always just picks a model and does a verbatim forecast. Santos and Baglini are both smart and knowledgeable but moving on from Don Paul meant WIVB gave up years and years of pattern recognition.

It was mentioned in the AFD yesterday, and you could see wind barbs misaligned on yesterday’s skew t’s https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=10&glossary=1&highlight=off

Mid level shear, well forecasted. Frustrating, but that’s the game, and it’s not like you won’t get plenty of chances over the next four and a half months.

Dude, stop baiting this forum with your politics.

I'll be out of town, which is a guarantee it'll veer north to the city!

Strong disagree - that's what they want us to think, because we'll feel hopeless and fight each other for their crumbs. Anyhow, let's not derail the wx discussion. I'll move on.

True, but begrudging the lowest paid employees a raise when rich people are walking off with nearly everything is mixed up priorities

I have lived in low property/low income tax states. The schools were horrible, senior services were non-existent, and they put a 9% sales tax on everything, including groceries. You pay for it one way or another.

I hear the CEO of Target makes $11 million, and the CEO of McDonald's makes $45 million

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population_growth_rate

? NY is the fourth most populated state, and the population is increasing while many states are shrinking