WNash

Don’t both Watertown and Buffalo require a flow from around 245 or 250 to get a solid LES hit? It shouldn’t be as hard to get that in Buffalo as it has been in recent years.

Agreed, but I feel like KBUF has been soft-pedaling forecasts recently, erring on the low side. We've had a garbage winter, and even when they're wrong, we haven't been able overshoot their call by much, but it's an issue that they've taken a turn towards the cautious lately.

Maybe I'm wrong about this, but it seems like the Buffalo WFO is recently very reluctant to issue WSW for the Buffalo metro unless the low probability (10%) scenario meets WSW criteria. Didn't the November events get only advisory notices, even though at lease one met WSW criteria?

This would have been a beauty about six weeks ago.

I went out to shovel to burn off some frustration from watching the Titans let Mahomes walk in at the end of the first half. We had around 6 inches since Friday night, but yesterday’s accumulation got rained on then froze. Had everything completely clear, even had the last of the sun shining down at sunset, then we had a heavy burst that put down another half inch.

I went out in the drizzle at 5:30 to shovel about 4.5 inches of mashed potatoes. Too much to melt overnight, and whatever is left over is gonna freeze solid tomorrow night.

I got a state job, took a big pay cut, but the benefits are 100x better. And a pension is so hard to find in the private sector that you might as well be dreaming. People in my dad’s generation got pensions, and they’re doing well, but the people who run things took that away from us and put the money in their own pockets.

It’s dumping here as well, about 2 miles SE of the village of Kenmore. Not even a hint of taint.

Bah gawd, that's @tim123's music

I was well into my 40s (and my wife well into her 30s) before we had a kid. Fertility issues required a specialist, which took us years to get around to, but conception didn't take long after that. Certainly something to consider if you/your spouse is older than optimal fertility age, though without sharing too many details age didn't have a lot to do with our situation. But then we had a very preterm delivery and a long NICU stay, which was difficult at the time but we got through it. Our child is two now and has no issues. It did change our lifestyle a lot, but the emotional rewards have more than made up for it. We're not going to have another... it was hard on all of us, and we might not be as lucky next time. Certainly my wife's employer (who gave her a generous leave on full pay) might not be as accommodating next time!

One can only dream. The source of this moisture is the Gulf of Mexico, right? It's not impossible for gulf moisture to fall as snow, but it's not a frequent occurrence. More likely, when we get crazy PWAT it's accompanied by warmer air with a higher PWAT value. I guess I prefer a downpour to an overrunning scenario with that water falling into 32F surface temps, but it would be cool to get true snowstorm from moisture like this.

Just give it a couple thousand more years!

Verbatim, RIP Cleveland.

It’s a mix up here near the Buffalo/Snyder/Cleveland Hill line. Accumulating a little bit, though. I think this will show as a trace, unless the airport gets a bigger burst.

I hope sidewalks get cleared better there than in much of 14215.

You’re not far from me. What’s your assigned station?

Yeah we have had a few winters this decade where a progressive, Pacific-influenced pattern dominated, and they were very poor snow seasons, far below the seasonal average. It’s depressing to think that the 27 or so inches that have fallen so far this season could represent half of the total seasonal snowfall at kbuf.

82-83 was a terrible El Nino year. My dad had started a factory that made fiberglass wicks for kerosene heaters, a market that had boomed in those days when home heating oil was widely used insanely expensive. That warm winter literally put him out of business!

His pattern recognition skills are really good. I skip the model hype but his nowcasting skills are real.

Had a five minute burst at North Campus. These WNW set-ups where you can see bands to the north and south remind me of those summer days when the ring of convection sets up at the lake breeze confluence while we are bright and dry in the metro.

Very impressive band visible to the north from Amherst, stretching towards the east.

I'm having a hard time buying that map for northern Erie. KBUF has been well-placed for a few events, and they're only at 25" (as of midnight, so add maybe 1" to 1.5" to that). And I'm a few miles west of the airport and have at most 60% of their snow. If the Pivotal map is that far off IMBY, then I'm sure it's off for much of the rest of NYS.

Rough! How do you guys come out during that storm a few weeks ago that put 12”+ down in VT?

Yeah, outside the mid-November synoptic storm, this first part of this season is looking like a lemon for Buffalo. We have about 4-5 weeks before Lake Erie shuts off and we have to cross our fingers that we get cutoffs, wraparound, etc. And at least though Christmas week chances for anything don’t look good. If I had to bet on KBUF getting to the seasonal norm in 2019-20, I’d definitely take the under.

We had less than an inch in NE Buffalo. Rain started mixing in around 4:30 PM, and it never fully switched back to snow. I had very low expectations for this one and it still somehow managed to disappoint.