WNash

We had about two hours of huge flakes before it started sticking, but maybe the weakening of diurnal effects will help you guys switch over quicker.

Congratulations! Now all you need is days and days of northwest flow LES to cap off the year.

Buffalo is a first half team in the Golden Snowball Bowl, by the time the second half rolls around Lake Erie will be frozen solid and we'll have to dink and dunk our way to the end of the game.

About 3” total in NE Buffalo. At least round two was so wind blown that nothing stuck to where I shoveled this morning.

Yeah, there's something wrong with that measurement. I drove out to Clarence on Main Street the day after that storm, and that storm put two feet down for a good stretch of that drive. I'm also surprised by the Clarence Center number, but I'm sure there was a huge cutoff to the north just as there was to the northwest. I made notes in my Buffalo Blizzard book, but I can't find it right now. In any case, if I remember correctly, the big LES events that hit North Buffalo and the northtowns as far west as Kenmore and Sweet Home were early season events, for example early December 1995, late November 2000, and October 2006. I'm not sure of the mechanism, but I recall from Don Paul that early season strong LES often can have significant cyclonic curvature. I'm assuming that plays into the drought -- not enough strong early season events on the 240-245 flow.

From Black Rock up through North Tonawanda -- really, the east bank of the Niagara River -- is truly a lost cause as far as snowfall goes. There's just not a heading that can give that stretch of the metro area good lake effect.

This was the storm. It was quite a bit worse than I thought in North Buffalo/Northtowns. There was a huge cutoff NW of the airport. It really missed the area hit hardest in November 2000 and October 2006. …ERIE COUNTY… Colden 2.4 ENE 23.5 Boston 2.5 NE 22.3 Colden 1 W 21.6 North Boston 4 ESE 21.3 Buffalo Airport 20.0 Cheektowaga 2.7 NE 20.0 Boston 1.5 NE 18.8 East Aurora 2.7 SSE 18.6 Eden 1.4 SSE 16.7 Wales 16.6 West Seneca 0.4 E 15.5 East Aurora 0.1 ENE 15.1 West Seneca 2.3 NW 15.0 Williamsville 2.7 E 15.0 Clarence Center 0.2 ESE 14.5 Elma 2.7 WSW 14.2 West Seneca 1.6 WNW 13.7 Springville 5 NE 13.7 Buffalo 3 SE 13.5 East Aurora 1.0 ESE 13.5 Hamburg 0.4 WSW 13.2 Elma Center 0.7 SE 12.8 Marilla 3 SSW 12.2 Clarence Center 0.9 N 10.5 Glenwood 1.5 SE 10.0 Akron 0.9 NE 9.6 Cheektowaga 2.4 NW 8.0 Kenmore 0.3 ESE 7.5 East Aurora 3.4 NNE 7.5 Blasdell 1.5 SSW 5.6 Kenmore 0.8 NW 3.3 Tonawanda 3.1 NE 3.0 Amherst 5.4 NNE 1.9 Tonawanda 1.5 NNE 1.0

Oh no doubt, but looking at the Buffalo Blizzards book, it seems like a truly significant LES hits the northern part of the city every 5-7 years on average. The last storm of a high magnitude that had long residence north of downtown was October 2006, so it has been quite a drought.

There's a heading from through KBUF to Clarence that can get a good sustained connection, and that often can hit downtown and parts of the east side. Genessee Street in Buffalo seems to be close to the northern limit. North of that, bands seem to be transient. Last January was the best LES I've seen since I moved here seven years ago, and that storm topped out at about 15" in the northern third of the city and northtowns (depending on if you consider the airport and vicinity part of the northtowns).

The sun has come out at north campus. It took about 30 mins for the band to transit. There was a lot of wind, so it's hard to eyeball amounts, but it looks not more than an inch. So three inches for the whole event... in line with Buffalo NWS's low-end 10% probability. It's hard as hell to get sustained LES from downtown to the north.

Pretty wild up at North Campus - I can't see a building about 50 yards away.

About 2” in NE Buffalo. It was really dumping... for about an hour.

Santos just put up a map that looks more like channel 7’s totals.

I lived in NYC for several years. The number of 50 degree rainers they get in winter would send us to the nuthouse. A top 10% season for them is a bottom 10% season for us.

The siting of the official recording for a city is far more arbitrary than a population cutoff. And it’s not just an issue that affects cities in New York — I’m pretty sure that Grand Rapids would be a Golden Snowball-level competitor if their NWS office was located a few miles west of downtown, instead of a few miles east of downtown. Either population counts or it doesn’t. If you draw the line at Rochester — a midsized city with a largely rural “metro” area that includes six counties and somehow extends all the way down to Penn Yan — then why not count Oswego or Jamestown.

Coming down pretty good at North Campus.

Rain to white rain since this morning in NE Buffalo. Disappointing. It seems like every variable must work our perfectly to get good LES in downtown to the north.

Awesome! I might be up for this. I'll figure out a good time to bring it up with the wife. We have a toddler, so I have to plan around childcare.

I'm not a chaser, but I'd drive to the Tug for this.

My father in law told me that he believed that in Gardenville, two feet of snow fell in three hours, based on his trips behind their house to make sure their standby generator was in working shape. He actually quit trying to dig it out after that because going out was too dangerous - the whiteout was so bad that you couldn't see their house from less than 20 yards away. I've told this story before, but it was in the dig-out at the in-laws after that storm when I sank into the snow nearly to my knees and found myself standing on top of a six foot fence post. Probably a little bit of drifting, but they had over 72" easily. I'm not a native WNYer and it's still stunning to think about it.

Looking at the ENY reports... for such a picturesque town, Saratoga Springs is where SN goes to die. Half the accumulation of literally everywhere around them.

I guess I’m supposed to be convinced by the local met consensus but I’d appreciate it if at least one of the on-air folks or the AFD would substantively address the discrepancy between their forecasts and model output. Say what you will about Don Paul but his WIVB blog was really helpful (when he bothered to update it).

Downstate UB kids are mad that classes are in session, since the weather sucks pretty much everywhere in between an hour east of Buffalo and an hour northeast of NYC. Lots of cancellations, but there was a long lead time in the forecast for this event, so no sympathy.

Yeah, wunderground stations are reporting 33-35 F all the way out to Akron. There were always gonna be p-type issues with this storm in WNY, which is why I haven’t given it much thought — those kind of storms never seem to work out for the lake plain. Glad to hear Albany is jackpotting, they have drawn the short stick for years. Fingers crossed for Rochester to the east.

I think it’s still in use by some local broadcast mets.