WNash

July daily mean temp was +3F, August daily mean temp was +3F, September daily mean temp was +5F. Summer was warm, and persistent, which would have been great except for the grueling humidity that took the fun out of spending time outside. I'm hoping for a repeat of last year's temps, but with much more tolerable dew points.

It got up to 84F with a dew point of 67F here. Humid enough that that my shirt was dripping from sweat after twenty minutes of light yard work! No sign of rain at all — a cooling shower before sunset would be nice.

Yeah, we had a beautiful Sunday, and it’s nice today. But it looks a bit greyer later this week. Fingers crossed that we get the usual arrival of consistently warmer, sunnier weather around the 20th or so.

We don't seem to have truly warm weather for more than short stretches until the third week in May. And even then we get cool snaps until well into June. The lake makes seasons lag and shortens transitions. I don't feel like we really have genuine summer weather until around the solstice. That said, summer temps and sunshine have persisted through September in recent years, which has its pluses and minuses. I actually like the beginning of lake effect season, with the nighttime thunder and the waterspouts, but the recent run of hot early autumns have taken that away, and we just get more blue skies with little precipitation in September and October. I think that this might actually hurt early lake snow chances, because Lake Erie goes through very gradual cooldown as daily means temps decrease that lowers delta T's. We have a short window for epic lake effect snow off Lake Erie, so all the variables need to line up perfectly for us to have a huge early snow season.

This is some Eeyore stuff right here. Temp averages may start getting "colder" in three months, but it'll be over six months before average temps approach yesterday's actual temps. And if we're going to use "colder" for relative decline of mean temps, it has been getting "hotter" for three months now. Spring arrives slow as molasses here even in an average year, mostly because of a huge reservoir of cool water upwind of WNY and the North Country. That same reservoir gives us relatively bountiful snow, which most of us here appreciate. And having spent most of my life in the southeast, where July and August (and often June and September) are so sultry that spending any length of time outside is physically exhausting as your body can literally not cool efficiently, I'll gladly take the incredible summers in the lee of the lakes in exchange for the garbage early to mid spring we have. Does anywhere have perfect weather? Maybe places within a few miles of the Pacific Ocean around the 33rd parallel, where temps and humidity never reach a subtropical extreme. But even in San Diego, people miss having seasons. I personally like the weather in Northern California but I know people who hate to spend the summer wearing sweaters, then have to put on shorts in October for a few weeks. Mediterranean climate zones are pretty great but it can really bake in that sun, and most places with that climate have an ugly rainy season. I'll take our grey, muddy, chilly spring if I can also have our winters and summers.

Yeah I think we might reach the 3” threshold that KBUF has as the 10% likelihood max

Yeah some nice returns headed this way. We have about 1/2” on grass and elevated surfaces, but nothing is sticking to the roads.

That was a nice band that set up for a while around 3AM. We had a half inch of pure fluff fall while the band was still consolidating towards the near southtowns. We have had about five inches total. When we were forecasted to get several inches, we got less than an inch, but when we were forecasted for a dusting, we got a couple inches. In defense of the Buffalo WFO's forecasts for the Buffalo metro, I don't think they have good modeling or data for a mostly frozen lake with shifting patches of open water. But that doesn't account for their weird snowfall forecasts for Rochester or the broad brushing SE of Lake Ontario.

It looked to me that mixing was a big risk for NYC and the WSW was a bold call. Looks like NE didn’t get the p type issues.

What the hell are WSW criteria for Upton? 4-8" tainted by sleet in NYC but there are warning headlines. That might not even get an advisory in WNY/North Country.

This sounds awesome but I'm genuinely afraid of downed trees and powerlines here. A neighbor just lost about 10% of his shingles, a large branch came down in another neighbor's backyard. Our house is shaking in the strongest gusts. I've been hearing emergency vehicles every 5-10 minutes!

Flagstaff gets a lot of snow, but they have snowpack loss way worse than we get in WNY.

That move is awesome. Full of very dated cultural references, the science is pretty dubious and the climactic scene in the barn is just ridiculous, but it is a blast and I'll watch it any time it's on.

I can see why professionals would want to experience weather that extreme. Understanding that the stakes are so high probably keeps good mets very, very focused.

I would love to go to northern Honshu. They have perfect OES parameters, with prevailing NW flow over a mile deep sea constantly warmed by a current from the south, and orography that has a rise of 1500 meters over 15 miles. Look at this - Google street view from May 2013 showing a dense snowpack of three feet or so, after months of melt. It looks like a glacier.

It's not for everybody, and definitely not for me, but I respect the honesty. I get more annoyed when thrillseekers pretend that they're doing storm chasing for science or whatever. In some cases, the videos can be useful for storm analysis. Morgerman spends big for travel and for equipment. Undoubtedly he gathers data that can't be obtained elsewhere and there is no way that selling his videos comes close to making that money back - he reminds me a bit of Richard Dreyfuss' character Hooper in Jaws, who owns his own damn scientific research vessel because he has $$$. But fundamentally people are doing it for the thrills, and it takes a lot of ego to say otherwise (and Morgerman, who without met training claims to "reanalyze" historic storms, always to lower them below the level of storms he has personally experienced, does not lack for ego).

The ego and cowboy mentality of hurricane chasers - even the competent ones like iCyclone - is pretty gross, but those videos from the eyewalls are more frightening than any horror movie. (A separate category of insanity is from the dumbass yokel chasers like the guy who almost drowned in Hurricane Michael last year.) Residential and commercial construction, flora, etc. are not capable of standing up to sustained hurricane force winds here. Can you imagine how many steep pitched roofs with three foot exposed overhangs would go flying in a 100 knot storm here? You look at a palm tree bent to 60 degrees... imagine that kind of force applied to the maples and honeylocusts and aging oaks here.

Sunshine up here - wondering if this is a good indication that the lake is pretty well frozen up.

Nice surprise in that squall, probably 2”/ hr at its peak. We had perhaps 5” since sunrise - hard to be certain because of the wind.

Absolutely ripping in NE Buff

A friend of my wife's grew up in Boonville. Her wedding was here, but a number of her friends from back home attended. Ag and dairy are big, along with paper products. One of the people at our table taught high school there and her husband does shorthaul driving.

You're off topic, I'm trying to be helpful. Unless you're telling Tug and everyone else to move out of the state, which is obviously not useful advice.

Ugh, sorry to hear that. File for UI benefits today, they're relatively generous in NY. And don't be reluctant to file for SNAP benefits, Medicaid, etc. There are many other useful programs in this state to use when bad luck hits you. It's a huge upside of living in NYS, as opposed to places like the southeast, where you get punished for misfortune. Also... I don't know your line of work, but jobs in Watertown/Fort Drum and Syracuse both should be in driving distance for you.

Lol I don't think so, Cejka