WNash

EDIT: Steve explained this already so I’m deleting my comment

This is amazing. We’re just three miles west of the airport and had about 6.5”. Sadly, this was not the long overdue Northtowns storm. Pedestrian snow totals for Williamsville and the northern part of Cheektowaga. I’m sure the numbers for North Buffalo, Amherst, Kenmore, and Tonawanda will also be on the low side relative to much of Erie County. Clarence did well by virtue of being far enough east to get the airport band. Disappointing, but we keep waiting.

Looks like it has set up with a northern extent from South Buffalo to the airport to Clarence Center, so the bulk of the northtowns were limited to transient bands. It’s nice to get something, but a 5” lake effect event isn’t an LES drought buster. I was hoping we would finally get a big northtowns hit, but no such luck, it seems.

We have had about four inches in NE Buffalo. One quick burst of heavy snow and a couple hours of moderate snow under the band. Rates are way lower here than further east.

We had fifteen minutes of heavy snow in North Buffalo that put down an inch before it moved north.

I dunno, sounds like downtown to the north didn't get much. But good for the southtowns, who missed out on big snows to the south and a couple smaller events to the north.

We're three miles due west of the WFO, and had 2.75" - driving to work this morning, it looked like there was a big cut-off right just west of the 90 around Cleveland Drive.

We’re right at the northern edge and have maybe 2”, with light snow falling. I think the strong stuff is downtown towards Harris Hill (including the airport of course). Still think it will settle on the southtowns, but there won’t be residence in one part of the metro long enough to get warning totals.

Yeah this is gonna show up as maybe an inch or two at KBUF. Just as well that the seasonal snowfall numbers will stay low and will more accurately reflect what an awful season this has been for the Niagara Frontier in general.

If I recall, 2014 was a season when cold air and a parade of clippers kept piling on the Buffalo snowfall totals.

They get a lot of at bats through the course of a winter. With the long fetch and the orographic effect, it’s way harder for the Tug to fail for an entire winter than for them to hit a huge jackpot at some point.

A little less than this one for us.

I totally blanked on that! We had about 16”. It salvaged the entire season.

I measured in six different places before I started the snowblower, and got between 12 inches and 14.5 inches. The average was around 13 inches. Definitely the best event for me, synoptic or lake effect, since 2014.

Yeah very powdery snow that blows away if you so much as look at it. Hard to be precise, but I’d say it’s around four inches of accumulation. Consistent light to moderate snow all day, fingers crossed we get into the heavier returns in a few hours.

Very fine snow grains falling now, but we got a dusting pretty quickly. Curious to see how many hours in a row KBUF will report SN.

I’m not seeing it, but I hope you’re right.

This feels like other events where the Buffalo metro up to Niagara County got fringed. I suspect we’ll get some 10:1 accumulation early, then see small dendrites as the temp drops, and then we’ll be on the wrong side of the cutoff. So I’m thinking 6-8” in the metro, maybe not even meeting warning criteria. Also, while the SW/WSW flow looks good this week for lake effect, I’m thinking we may have too little moisture to work with. In a week, we could see a freeze-up, after a small accumulation of lake snow.

I’m standing by my call of this being just advisory level on most of the Niagara Frontier.

Verbatim this is basically an advisory level nuisance for most of the Buffalo metro, so I want to see that NW trend before committing to following this storm.

Losing this one would hurt. KBUF is at 32.3” for the season, and it has been a very poor LES season for every locality in the lee of Lake Erie from Hamburg to the north. The window for lake effect is closing fast. A good synoptic storm would have made up quite a bit of lost ground. My fingers are crossed, but if this pattern fails to produce for the Niagara Frontier, I’ll be ready to write this off as yet another example of the garbage winters we have seen in recent years, and I’ll be hoping for a very early, very warm spring.

That’s not a bad thing. Some WFOs (*cough*BOSTON*cough*) throw up a blizzard warning several times a year for stuff we would laugh at.

It seems pretty specific for a storm whose trajectory is only generally predictable at this point.

Maybe after the Thursday model runs that incorporate better sampling? If this goes down the toilet I don't want to be reminded by a thread that will stay on page one of the Upstate NY/PA subforum for two years.

Yeah, that was my report! Probably the best storm, synoptic or otherwise, to hit the northern part of Buffalo in the last 12 years.