DavisStraight

1 hour ago, Layman said:

That's interesting.  Is there an amount threshold to determine what's considered "snow" for this?  For that matter, is there a generally understood number in the industry that's recognized as a minimum amount of actual snow?  I'm not sure if you're comment above implies that to people more in the know than I am with these things.  I just know if it's spitting snow here and not coating grass, that's not appreciable snow. (No kidding! )

I don't count it unless I have a solid coating, not some snow that accumulates in a couple of places.

It does look colder the days leading up to Christmas, maybe we get lucky.

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

1975 was brutally cold after 12 to.15. 

Could have been 75, it was one of my first years in high school.

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Nothing will beat 1997 though…looked hopeless but then on the 21st we start seeing that chance of an inch or so on 12/23….the night before they said 1-3” inland but wouldn’t be surprised if it was less…then bam, 18” later. 
 

2012 was also a fun one even though it was way less snow. Had about inch or so of currier and Ives fluff predawn until about 9am Xmas morning when it was looking bleak even the day before. 

I knew you'd remember back then, we've had some surprises, hoping for one this year.

I remember one year when I was in high school, maybe 76 or 77 we had a decent storm on the 21st or 22nd with a cold arctic air front moving in and blowing the snow around, just great timing that year for a white Christmas,

56 minutes ago, Layman said:

Is it this book?  It's dirt cheap and sounds interesting.  I'm going to grab it if it is.  EDIT:  I bought it regardless 

https://amzn.to/3RbQKIO

I'm going to order it too, does look interesting.

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Well-seasoned oak, hard to beat, but that species is uncommon here thanks to preferential harvests in the distant past.  Whoever owns our woodlot after we're no longer around will have greater amounts of oak, as I've had fun releasing the numerous saplings from the popple and red maple.

When you sit back and think about it, the amount of days and weeks and months we waste of possible snow waiting for that elusive pattern change to kick in really is amazing. All the tracking, all the 10 days that keep getting pushed back.. just happens so often.. and before you know it Tip is posting about warm car seats and sun angle on Feb 10.. and then Morch hits 

Bring it on - Morch is a winter month here.  This past winter the month was 3.5° AN but had 27.9" snow, and that with being only grazed by the mid-month paste bomb.

That's some nice looking ready to burn wood, I have a hickory in my yard that looks like that, just have to cut it up for the stove.

26 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Of course I remember meeting you!  I recall you were doing the appraisal job which seemed like a nice gig.  Hopefully you make it on the 20th!

Going to do my best, hope to be there.

47 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Didn't you guys meet at Funky's 2 years ago?

Yes we did, and met you too, it was a good turnout that year Wiz was there, Hubbdave, Wolfie and Kevin.

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Also, Davis straight said he’d try, not sure of others.  Maybe wiz?

I'm 50-50 right now

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why not just use Imgur? It’s so easy. Helen Keller could do it. 

Takes a few seconds to shrink it on your phone and post it.

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d post pics but size matters I guess. Who do I have to bang to get more space?

If you used your phone for the pics you should be able to shrink them in your gallery.

8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

That’s nothing. Last year Safety went from around just under $1100 for the year to over $2100. No claims, perfect 99 rating or whatever that metric is. My broker found me a different company and I ultimately paid $990 for the year (with better coverages!)

Same thing happened to us, our agent found us a cheaper provider, don't remember the numbers but it was quite a bit, not sure what's going on with these insurance companies raising their rates so much.

7 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Much of central and eastern Europe getting smoked lately.

Big snowstorm in Moscow, though I don't know what big means to them, they look to be in a pretty dry area.

Looks like the real cold is in Russia right now, Yakutsk is -57 right now, seems early even for them to be that cold.

1 minute ago, gonegalt said:

Yup, that's it. I split 16" logs with mine. Wonderful basement exersize machine.

Tell us about this Fiskars you speak of.

The Fiskars is just an axe but it really slices through rounds like butter, I've used the one you guys like when I have to cut down big rounds but then I use the Fiskars to finish.

Amazon.com : Fiskars X27 Super Splitting Axe - Wood Splitter for Medium to Large Size Logs with 36" Shock-Absorbing Handle - Lawn and Garden Gifts for Men - Black : Patio, Lawn & Garden

Thought my sister would get more on the Maine coast but it mid 30's and rain, maybe she flips over tonight and get some accumulating.

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Fair enough, but we aren’t kicking the can this winter. If things look good by then and we have an event on the horizon, then I’ll be excited. If we get to early Jan with nothing on the horizon then its time to write winter off as a rat. I don’t think that’s too unreasonable.

2015 started later in January

If that pattern flips favorable the third week of Dec into the holidays, I'd be happy, good things can happen after that since it's primetime for us for the next few weeks after.

22 hours ago, weathafella said:

Heads up guys-moved to 12/20 to better accommodate parking with neither Bruins nor Celtics playing in town that night.

That's a Wednesday, my bowling night, if I can get a sub I'll try to make it since Today's got cancelled.

40 minutes ago, gonegalt said:

Yup, that's the one. Single piston ram powered by two smaller rams that you pump. It's my excersize machine. All mounted on a heavy I beam frame w/rollers. Got my first one in '96, on my second one now- Harbor Freight for $99 or so.

The HF one I bought 5 yrs ago is identical to the first one from 96. Real simple design and a heavy dependable tool. I've been through 100 cords here (5 cord/yr) and have split a quarter of that with that splitter. 

Get one and grow those shoulders!

You guys talking about this?

Manual Hydraulic Log Splitter - 10 Ton (harborfreight.com)

I have one but would rather use a Fiskars, can do it much faster, if I'm real lazy I use my gas powered splitter but I've only split one cord with it.

38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think this is the longest I've ever been sick outside of like 2015 when I had a sinus infection and I was sick for like a month...but that's because I didn't realize it was a sinus infection and left it untreated. When I had covid the first time I was sick for like a day-and-a-half. Both my girlfriend and I have been sick since Monday. 

I really hope we can try and reschedule this. Maybe shoot for the spring? 

My wife's been sick all week with Covid, she's feeling better today though so hopefully the end is near.

2 hours ago, FXWX said:

Imagine how completely boring it will be if and when the modeling reach infailable levels one day down the road... There would be just one centralized forecast office manned by a person to activate the computer and a janitor to dust... Also it would spell the death of weather forums! Lol

I thought Google or some company was working on a new model.

8 hours ago, tamarack said:

That's true for "chronic" back puffs.  However, certain wx can cause them even with the proper height.  At our first house in Fort Kent, a small (18'x20') 2-story with 12/12 roof, we had a Jotul 602 - their smallest stove at the time - hooked to the center chimney.  It furnished for temps down to about -20F, below which we fired up the leaky* old $20 parlor stove in the basement.  The Jotul's thimble was about 25' below the chimney's top and back puffs were uncommon but always came from the same conditions, a windy CF following a mild day.  I think the 70' tall balsam poplars just NW from the house would create turbulence, downdrafts in their lee that were strong enough to reverse the smoke for a second or 2.

* I referred to it as being as tight as a lobster trap.

Wind can cause wreak all kinds of havoc with a wood stove. It all depends on the direction and your setup and no two are usually alike.

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Great post, well said. Couldn't agree more. This is a pretty darn good way to state things. 

And what I have bolded irks me too. It's not that models "change". I mean when you think of it, the solution the model is spitting out is the product of how the pattern is evolving (time step derivatives, leap frog equation...I forget what that was called. Did that in mesoanalysis. I remember one Thanksgiving morning tackling that homework assignment). So feasibly, the solution the model is spitting out is correct...assuming the evolution occurs that way. 

Ultimately though, I think it just comes down to expectations and we let emptions get in the way and then all hell breaks loose.

Won't you guys adapt the new strength and weaknesses of the current models and adjust forecast based on that?