tamarack

Will go to patches (trace) today, 14" gone in 4 days. Back in the '60s, crooner Johnny Mathis did a song with the line, "Melt my heart like April snow." Outside of my Fort Kent days, snow in April has had no staying power. Even April of 2007, with 37.2" and temps 6° BN thru the 17th, saw everything gone 5 days later.

The Kennebec drainage has had much if its top-5 peak flows in recent years, especially the 2 rivers from the mountains. All flow numbers are cfs. (Parentheses: sq. mi. watershed) Carrabassett 1926 on (373) Much the flashiest trib. 50,700 4/1/1987 39,000 12/18/2023* 35,500 5/1/2023 31,600 8/29/2011 Irene 30,800 3/19/1936 Sandy 1929 on (516) 51,100 4/1/1987 42,700 12/19/2023 38,600 3/19/1936 36,900 3/28/1953 31,300 5/1/2023 Kennebec 1979 on (5,403) 232,000 4/2/1987 ** 167,000 12/19/2023 113,000 6/1/1984 113,000 5/1/2023 111,000 4/28/1979 * Reached 39,000 while still rising, then went offline for 8 hours, by which time the flow was much lower. ** Greatest flow in Maine records. Comparison with Maine's other major rivers: Penobscot, 1902 on 153,000 on 5/1/1923 (6,6721) Saint John, 1927 on 183,000 on 4/30/2008 (5,680) Androscoggin, 1929 on 135,000 on 3/20/1936 (3,263)

Radar says it's raining here but the only drops I see are coming from the melting snow on the roof. Branches are dry as well. Upper 30s with high RH so evaporation shouldn't be eating all the rainfall.

The only quake I've felt was when we lived in Fort Kent. Epicenter was in New Brunswick, a couple dozen miles north from Fredericton, and had a 5.7 magnitude. 5+ effects were noted as far west as Allagash and to the southwest, Belfast. It was a sleep-in Saturday but at 7:41 we were rudely awakened. At 4:41 the following Monday there was a 5.4 aftershock. I was driving home from work and the bumpy roads prevented my noting it, but my wife had pots and pans rattling in our kitchen. We read of several fire depts being called for possible chimney fires on the 9th, as the quake's rumbling sounded something like well-established fire within the flue. We saw some cracks in our foundation ("daylight basement" with only the uphill section had full height concrete) but we weren't aware of the consequences until mid-April 1983. We were traveling out of state and had house-sitters, relatives of our off-grid friends, staying at our place. There was a 3.5" deluge plus snowmelt, and they ended up bailing water out the basement's back door.

I can't recall seeing another snowstorm that clobbered CHI, NYC and CAR. Must be a rare trifecta.

1983. NYC posted a WSW but had only 0.8" while across the Hudson EWR recorded 4.1". Some spots in NW NJ had nearly a foot.

Much different character, too. Dry cold pow with temps one might expect in a January blizzard - numerous low max records were set. Down at NYC it was the most wintry April snowstorm in their 155-year POR. (Embarrassing for the mets at CAR as well. Like almost everyone, they expected a sharp right turn OTS and were forecasting cold/windy/flurries. Instead, they got 26.3", at the time their biggest on record.)

Forecasts pegged the jack area essentially perfectly and did well elsewhere. Once the S+ ended before 7 yesterday morning, I figured that the forecast for here (12-18) would bust, but the wet 0.7" (0.11" LE) pushed the storm total to 13.2" - another score. It's our 3rd greatest April snow here (18.5" on 4-5/07; 15.1" on 1-2/11) and 4th anywhere (17.0" on 7-8/82 in Fort Kent). Spring total of 40.2" tops the 37.9" in 2007, a mark I thought to be unbeatable.

Probably up to 10" by now. Had 8" midnight-7 AM then maybe 1/2" 7-noon as snow was light or "is anything falling?" levels. Light-moderate at present (2:45), temp 31, gusts into the 20s. 50/50 chance of reaching the 12-18 forecast, but only the 4th double-digit storm in our 26 Aprils.

This is what I thought to which you were responding. (Boldface mine). DirecTV is down - probably the dish on the roof is packed but I'm not interested in climbing up there atm. Also waiting to see the plow before I run the blower, and unless we get into the good bands, I may wait until late afternoon. My machine is a bit under powered, but it will handle 10-12" okay. And those were localized outages, This is widespread.

Didn't CMP outages reach 400k on Dec 18? Nobody in our general region had power; we ran the genny just over 100 hours. Had 8.5" and 0.87" LE by 7 AM, maybe 1/2" since as a stripe of nothing from the NH line to Newport was parked along Rt 2 for several hours. It's moved a bit north but still only light SN here, with occasional gusts approaching 30. Trees are loaded up to about 30 feet then wind-emptied above there. May yet reach the low end of the 12-18 forecast.

>30" for Saddleback and Sugarloaf.

GYX table of 90%/expected/10% still shows lots of uncertainty: PWM #: 0/6/20 ASH #: >1/5/16 Less of a spread at Farmington: 13/18/25.

If that were the case, there might be plenty of rooms due to all the cancellations.

Looks like something by Jackson Pollack. Near 40 here with a raw breeze.

Surprised at the C for temps. Here it was the mildest DJF and DJFM of 26 cold seasons. Pack was mediocre but the coming snowstorm will almost certainly push the total into AN territory, possibly well into AN.

Probably the strongest blizzard winds I've seen since April 1982 in Fort Kent. Our rescue Lab mix from TX, who had arrived here on Feb 4, was utterly terrified. However, the strongest sustained winds here were last Dec 18th; probably blew down at least 5 times as many fir as any other event here.

Only 1960-61 (NNJ) and 2016-17 have had a pair of 20s. Already notched our biggest March storm, would need to top the 18.5" of 4-5/07 to crack April as well.

Shooting for 100 here. Could be close.

Numbers for a weird March: Avg max: 40.9 +2.1 6th mildest Mildest: 51 on the 6th Avg min: 24.3 +7.5 Mildest min of 26. Coldest: 4 on th 1st Avg mean: 32.6 +4.8 3rd mildest. The avg diurnal range is 2.1° less than 2nd least. Streaky temps. 1st was BN, 2-20 all AN, 21-26 BN, 27-31 AN. Avg for 2-20: +9.6 (Min avg +12.4) Precip: 8.67" +4.99 Tops by 0.76" Wettest day: 1.53" on the 10th Snow: 29.3" +11.9" Snowiest day: 11.5" on the 23rd. The 22.0" of 3/23-24 is March's biggest and tied with Dec 16-18 for 3rd biggest. Pack avg: 5.3", well below avg but the 22" O.G. at 7 on the 24th is tops for the snow season.

GYX is bullish this morning, especially for the foothills along the Maine/NH boundary. ocation Snow Amount Potential Chance of Seeing More Snow Than Low End Snowfall Expected Snowfall High End Snowfall >=0.1" >=1" >=2" >=4" >=6" >=8" >=12" >=18" Portland, ME 0 3 14 87% 83% 77% 65% 53% 42% 23% 7% Brunswick, ME 2 9 17 93% 91% 88% 80% 70% 58% 34% 10% Cumberland Center, ME 4 11 20 95% 94% 91% 86% 78% 69% 47% 19% Gray, ME 9 15 24 99% 99% 99% 97% 94% 90% 73% 38% Bridgton, ME 13 19 27 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 90% 60% Lewiston, ME 10 16 23 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 93% 78% 40% Augusta, ME 8 14 19 100% 99% 99% 97% 94% 87% 62% 18% Waterville, ME 7 12 18 100% 99% 99% 96% 91% 81% 51% 12% Fryeburg, ME 13 19 28 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 92% 66% Rumford, ME 11 17 26 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 95% 84% 52% Farmington, ME 10 17 25 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 92% 79% 46% Rangeley, ME 8 14 23 99% 99% 99% 97% 93% 88% 70% 35% Kingfield, ME 9 16 25 99% 99% 98% 97% 94% 90% 75% 44% Eustis, ME 7 13 23 99% 99% 98% 95% 91% 85% 65% 32% Jackman, ME 5 10 19 98% 97% 95% 90% 82% 71% 46% 16% Skowhegan, ME 7 12 19 99% 99% 98% 95% 90% 82% 57% 18% Belfast, ME 6 11 17 99% 99% 98% 94% 87% 75% 43% 9% Unity, ME 7 12 18 99% 99% 98% 95% 90% 80% 50% 11% Sanford, ME 7 10 21 100% 100% 99% 98% 94% 86% 61% 28% Kennebunk, ME 0 4 14 86% 82% 76% 64% 52% 41% 22% 7% Bath, ME 0 6 14 88% 84% 79% 68% 56% 43% 21% 5% Wiscasset, ME 4 10 17 98% 96% 94% 89% 79% 67% 40% 11% Rockland, ME <1 8 13 89% 86% 81% 71% 58% 44% 19% 2% Hope, ME 7 13 19 100% 99% 99% 96% 92% 84% 57% 16% Manchester, NH <1 2 13 91% 86% 79% 65% 52% 40% 21% 6% Nashua, NH 0 <1 11 77% 71% 65% 52% 40% 30% 15% 4% Concord, NH 3 4 14 100% 99% 97% 84% 67% 51% 26% 6% New London, NH 9 12 19 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 91% 62% 18% Portsmouth, NH 0 <1 9 67% 60% 53% 39% 28% 18% 7% 1% Hampton, NH 0 <1 9 66% 59% 52% 38% 26% 17% 6% 1% Keene, NH 2 3 11 98% 94% 87% 68% 50% 35% 13% 2% Rochester, NH 4 6 18 100% 99% 97% 90% 78% 65% 41% 16% North Conway, NH 14 20 29 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 71% Laconia, NH 8 11 19 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 61% 20% Claremont, NH 6 6 14 100% 100% 100% 99% 85% 64% 29% 5% Lebanon, NH 6 7 14 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 64% 27% 4% Plymouth, NH 9 10 17 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 55% 11% Pittsburg, NH 4 7 14 99% 98% 96% 88% 73% 55% 23% 3% Berlin, NH 9 15 22 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 92% 74% 32% Lancaster, NH 5 7 13 100% 100% 100% 96% 83% 61% 24% 2%

Numbers for a weird March: Avg max: 40.9 +2.1 6th mildest Mildest: 51 on the 6th Avg min: 24.3 +7.5 Mildest min of 26. Coldest: 4 on th 1st Avg mean: 32.6 +4.8 3rd mildest. The avg diurnal range is 2.1° less than 2nd least. Streaky temps. 1st was BN, 2-20 all AN, 21-26 BN, 27-31 AN. Avg for 2-20: +9.6 (Min avg +12.4) Precip: 8.67" +4.99 Tops by 0.76" Wettest day: 1.53" on the 10th Snow: 29.3" +11.9" Snowiest day: 11.5" on the 23rd. The 22.0" of 3/23-24 is March's biggest and tied with Dec 16-18 for 3rd biggest. Pack avg: 5.3", well below avg but the 22" O.G. at 7 on the 24th is tops for the snow season.

Wow! I've never seen more than 3", twice in NNJ. The 2nd time was in Jan 1964 and it was topped by 1/2" ZR. Kids were skating in their back yards on the impenetrable stuff.

The spreads in the GYX snowfall predictions are huge - 90%/expected/10% for Farmington are 4/8/20. MHT <1/4/13. Lots of uncertainty still.

This last event had little elevational variation in snowfall, which is odd for a late season storm though 2m temps were well below 32. (Highest spot had somewhat greater ratio, however.) Listed by higher/lower elevation: Temple 1.8W 1,224' 2.02" 22.1" Farmington 4.2NW 616' N/A 21.1" Farmington 4.8NNW 610' 2.14" 20.5" New Sharon 2.0N 392' 2.27" 22.0" Had 2.5 hours of sleety/rimey stuff before the death band. Don't know if the others had the same but friends in the area had some.