tamarack

Pretty consistent forecast for our highs from GYX. SAT 53/34 SUN 50/34 MON 50/33 TUES 50/35 WED 50/36 THUR 50/37 FRI 50/37 Also 30% PoP going to 50% Tues-Fri. Some showers approaching, maybe with a handful of graupel, maybe it dries up before getting here.

When I worked in the northern tip of Maine, I would always be sitting on my snowshoes when riding - several times had to use them as shovels to unstick the machine - usually the nose-heavy '73 Everest. (Never had to use them to walk out from a paunched snowmobile - fortunately. Before my 1st ride there, an experienced co-worker noted that one could ride in one hour farther than one could walk out in a day.)

Sapling oaks are reddish brown while the 24" by 90 ft oak is yellow-brown, also fully turned and about 25% leaf drop. Other than the oaks, only the understory beech have significant leaves among the deciduous trees. They'll be the last to drop, some hanging on into spring. Thick frost this morning, 29-30°. Oct 24 average is 52/32 so today should finish near to that.

Don't really know - maybe they estivate during the warmest part of the year?

The late summer tick hiatus came to light in 2019 when Maine Public Lands annual 2-day "peer review" field trip was set in southern Maine, including Swan Island with its overpopulation of deer. Nearly 40 attended the mid-August excursion and not a single tick was reported. That 7/15-9/10 period has remained tick-free, and this year it was 6/20-9/20. May that period be extended.

Cat 3 in Casco Bay. (0.1% chance)

After seeing no ticks from late June thru mid September, the little horrors are back in force. Yesterday's woods walk included pushing through some dense sapling stands and I brought home (and dispatched) 10 deer ticks.

0.79", with about half coming from a 5-minute downpour in mid afternoon. Eight miles WNW, West Farmington cocorahs reported 1.42". They must've had 10-15 minutes in the RA++.

Should've written "6th season". Once the trees stop sucking water from the soil, the first multi-inch rain event usually shuts down timber harvesting almost completely. Only twice have I seen warm-season conditions progress into frozen ground without a mud time, 1976 and 2013. This year might be a contender if freeze-up comes early, given the drought. Bright sun today after 4 straight cloudy ones - that produced only 0.11" precip.

Mud season - mid-October until freeze-up, NNE's 5th season.

Maybe some graupel?

There are echoes overhead there, and it's at 47.3° lat. and 985' asl. Their average date for first flakes is probably about now. (Unfortunately, the airport apparently doesn't report snow.)

Our 20-foot-tall sapling is mostly changed. The 90-foot by 24" specimen is just beginning to turn.

Your B-Day in 2002 was memorable here, though with only a trace of snow on the ground. It was the first day of Maine's firearm deer season and at dawn it was 14° with gusts 30+. That would be ho-hum in January but was quite chilly in mid Autumn. (Punched my ticket with a nice critter the day after T-Day.)

Strongest gust, mid 50s, came in a June 2005 TS and toppled a half dozen popple trees. However, December 18, 2023 - four hours of 50+ gusts plus a storm total of 4.21" - was a far more destructive event, causing many times more tree damage on our woodlot. Floyd (Sept 1999) also had gusts approached 50. Greatest lifetime winds: 1-A: Nov. 25, 1950. the Great Appalachian Gale 1-B: Dec. 31, 1962, backside NW wind from the blizzard that ate BGR. Both events reached near 70 mph and caused major damage. 3: Aug. 19, 1991, "Bob" - 60+ gusts. 4: Aug. 28, 1971, "Doria" - near 60 5: April 7, 1982, East Coast April blizzard, also near 60

Southern Maine had powerful winds - was interesting watching (on the tube) the waves blasting water 40 feet high then near -instantly being carried off by the wind. We had little wind this far inland, just 33-35° RA on the same (modest here) NE wind that powered NYC's 20.9" snowicane.

We had the same 3° (57/54) on Sept 27 during the 2.64" dump - smallest diurnal range we've had in September, though we've had 2° ranges in some other months and June 3, 2001 had 54/53, our only "onesie". As expected, we had little rain or wind, 0.10" and maybe a "gust" of 10 mph. 90%+ leaf drop here. The big oak is still mostly green and there's a few sugar maples with 50% retention though most of that species is near leafless.

Thanks - but recommend starting simple. I enjoyed seeing the blow-by-blow records by participants, but I'm sure that added lots of formulas to make it work smoothly.

Still dry (as forecast, maybe a bit tonight). Just enough wind to wiggle the few remaining intact leaves.

Lots more "fake" readings in SNE than the "real" ones like Mt. Tolland. Maybe the hills are really the "fake" places. Low of 25 here with thick frost and 1/16" ice on the washtub.

MWN 16°, 54G61, WCI -9. Brisk. Last night's stove load retained enough embers to restart without needing the lighter this morning - first time of the season. We'll see which side of 25 tomorrow morning in our rad pit.

The juicy echoes to our west when I sent the above post fell apart before reaching here. Event total is 1.17", a modest overperformer as the forecast had us in the 0.5-1.0 bracket.

1995-96 was by far (29" ahead of #2) our snowiest winter of 13 at Gardiner, though the thaws left SDDs in 5th place. Five straight months began with cold and snow, finished with mild and wet. Cherrypicking the dates illustrates the contrasts. The top line shows the data for Dec 1-21, Jan 1-16, Feb 1-19, Mar 1-11 and April 1/14 - total of 81 days. Lower line combines the remainders of those months, 71 total days. Avg max Avg min Depart. Precip Snow SN/day 26.4 9.1 -6.4 11.56" 127.4" 1.57" 44.1 24.2 +4.8 14.58 9.2 0.13"

We lived in Gardiner then, 9 miles south from AUG. Oct. 6, 1995: 51/45, 2.33". Tiny shower about 8 last evening 0.01", almost mocking. Dumped precisely 1.00" from the Stratus this morning and radar suggests a final total near 1.5".

We had 2.64" on Sept 25-26 and the local rivers are nearly back to the levels before that event. Maybe 6" spread over 2-3 weeks would have a significant effect on rivers and groundwater.