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About tamarack

- Currently Viewing Topic: Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?
- Birthday 03/10/1946
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Location:
New Sharon, Maine
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Family, church, forestry, weather, hunting/fishing, gardening
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I lean ACATT by preference (not forecasting) but think we'll finish July AN, thanks to its first 4 days. 7/1-4 was 10.3° AN while the next 19 days have run 0.6° BN and I think the remainder will be close to norms here. Enter August 2, 1975! PWM: 103 BGR: 102 BHB: 100 at water's edge. All 3 all-timers. Since my first swim in Maine salt water (August 1952), Hot Saturday is my only time of swimming in actual warm salt water here, just south of Otter Cliffs in Acadia.
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We have a long "plateau" here, and since our averages are "live" (every daily entry affects them), the numbers here are as of today. Our daily mean warms above 65 on July 1 (June's warmth added a full week of 65+) and that lasts thru August 10. Today's average is 66.04, the only day (currently) above 66, so it's all downhill from here. Given the short/mid forecasts, I think this summer will end without any 66+. Last night's 0.49" brought the month to 1.94". Average thru 7/22 is 2.82". Might cut the deficit a bit if the storms hit us this afternoon, but not much chance for 0.88" and it's dry for the next 4-5 days.
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The forester with whom we contracted in 2011 for forest inventory and modeling once commented, "All models are wrong, but some are useful." When Maine Public Lands contracted an inventory in 1999 (different contractor), the DOD had yet to remove the GPS scramble for non-military users. We had the foresters run their GPS units for 30 minutes on both the first and last of the 12-point cruise lines, with the goal of having the hundreds of scrambled hits averaging close to true location. We assumed the hits were truly random rather than biased.
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Saturday, July 18, 2026 Thunderstorm/Severe Weather Potential
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
0.21" brings the month to exactly 1.00". Yesterday's gloomy clouds made for a high of only 63. With a low of 47, the mean was 11° BN. Looks like July 2026 won't set a new warmest month, though I expect it to finish AN (currently 2.7 AN). -
Saturday, July 18, 2026 Thunderstorm/Severe Weather Potential
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Still at cloudy 65°, not a great sign of convection to come. -
If the variance within that -/-2 F, once one has hundreds/thousands of observations, the averages should be valid to tenths at least. (Unless there's a consistent bias toward either + or -.) Works that way in forest inventory, at least. Coldest I could find outside mtn location in New England is 47 at Fox Brook ME. There's probably about 10 Fox Brooks in Maine. My guess is the one on T17R12, immediately west from the town of Allagash.
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We had a 13k Generac installed in spring 2020 - we were getting too old to camp out in our own home. Our place has a 200 amp entry panel while the house footprint is only 960 sq.ft., 3 bedrooms including the loft, one bath. The unit itself was a bit over $3,000 but we had more like 10k fully installed - dedicated entry panel plus the labor to place and set up the genny. Since we are far from having gas in the street, we needed to buy 2 100-gallon tanks (nearly 2 weeks running), have them installed plus the underground link to the generator, along with the 200 gallons of propane. The 10-year guarantee came with the deal. Other than bi-weekly test runs (5 min) and short runs - <2 hr, we've had only 3 outages, 10 hours in late Sept 2020, 101 hours in Dec 2023 and 7.5 hours 2 days ago. We pay for the annual servicing, but when lightning blew apart a tall fir 55 yards from the house, also wrecking the electrical link from genny to panel, the techs fixed it with no charge.
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The Miramichi fire was mostly in NB but also involved some Maine acres. Since the Baxter Fire in 1977, Maine's biggest wildfires have been about 1,000 acres. Lorimer's work on forest history in Maine points to stand-replacement events occurring about 800 years apart for any one area. The state has very little fire-type forest and a cool moist climate with relatively even distribution by month.
