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Baroclinic Zone

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  1. Congrats to those cashing in on the 1st winter storm of the season. Cold rain here, mid 30s. Did have a brief period of sleet this AM from that initial lead band.
  2. Snowfall up north is much appreciated as many mountains open operations first week of December.
  3. Was wondering what that sliver band over RI was dropping.
  4. The differences between the Euro and GFS handling of the upper Midwest shortwave appear to be what’s causing the subtle track differences. GFS has 2 distinct areas of vorticity and the northern one remains stronger longer, while the Euro consolidates all this energy sooner and further south.. There is also a trailing piece of energy that is intensifying as it’s digging east and south that impacts the system as it exits the coast.
  5. Looks like for my area, 950mb level tickles 0C at its warmest
  6. It’s really coming down to intensity and how mid-levels act. Euro is just a bit more organized, mitigating any warm air intrusion beyond the south coast, while the GFS brings that further inland about 30 miles.
  7. 18z GEFS more spread at 12z Tuesday but more consolidate by 18z Tuesday.
  8. Last 5-6 model cycles, the trend has been for a flatter solution. Does not mean that holds or continues. We have seen countless times where we see those last 24-48hrs where things come in more amplified.
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