Congrats to those cashing in on the 1st winter storm of the season. Cold rain here, mid 30s. Did have a brief period of sleet this AM from that initial lead band.
The differences between the Euro and GFS handling of the upper Midwest shortwave appear to be what’s causing the subtle track differences. GFS has 2 distinct areas of vorticity and the northern one remains stronger longer, while the Euro consolidates all this energy sooner and further south.. There is also a trailing piece of energy that is intensifying as it’s digging east and south that impacts the system as it exits the coast.
It’s really coming down to intensity and how mid-levels act. Euro is just a bit more organized, mitigating any warm air intrusion beyond the south coast, while the GFS brings that further inland about 30 miles.
Last 5-6 model cycles, the trend has been for a flatter solution. Does not mean that holds or continues. We have seen countless times where we see those last 24-48hrs where things come in more amplified.