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packbacker

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Everything posted by packbacker

  1. packbacker
    GEM is 1" QPF for you...sweet! 850's start at -6 and roughly stay there with temps dropping into mid 20's.
  2. packbacker
    Ummmm....it would be Dec 2000 all over again. But, RAH is like 30-40 miles from 1" so a SE shift and yes it would suck. That's something that could change day of the storm.
  3. packbacker
    Ground temps are a concern but will just make things worse as it will melt and then refreeze...assuming we get any snow. Which I am holding out until 12z runs tomorrow.
  4. packbacker
    Me too...but we are not getting six.
  5. packbacker
    Surely he knows now to take the lowest model and divide by 2 or even 3....
  6. packbacker
    Tell me about it...how often has the most extreme modeled snow worked for us at this range...NEVER. Especially the Euro, it's the worst at fantasy snow. We always say if we had hugged the warmest/least snowy model we would have had our answer. We never learn...I am hoping 1-3" across the triangle but that takes a NW shift of the GFS. Not that confident of that just yet.
  7. packbacker
    Well without a wrapped up low whoever wants to jack is going to have flirt with temp issues. Personally would like the GFS where cold isn't an issue but fringes with better qpf.
  8. packbacker
    What model is this...LOL. Latest run.
  9. packbacker
    I like the DGEX/ukmet blend.
  10. packbacker
    Why I posted I wasn't sure what I wanted it to show. If I didn't have skin in the game I would think the same so don't want to jinx it. I can't remember an event where the GFS didn't tick NW inside 48 hours. Of course Euro can be a little amped. A blend is usually what happens.
  11. packbacker
    It was...just venting about thicknesses. 18z GFS should be fun...I don't know whether we want it to hold or shift NW.
  12. packbacker
    JMA say we taint....be funny if this ends up being a 35F 1" QPF rainer and MA to NE get 10-15". A Dec 09 repeat.
  13. packbacker
    Even the Navgem is a nice hit.
  14. packbacker
    Bulk of globals show snow inside day 4....what could possibly go wrong. There's a reason we don't snow here.
  15. packbacker
    So GFS is bone chilling cold but suppressed and the Euro is juiced but we taint. Seems like just about every winter around here. The Atlantic ridge just sucks.... At this point I hope this fizzles out so we can get back to normal....watching day 11+ anomaly maps for hope of a pattern change.
  16. packbacker
    What just happened...we went from only the GFS/Para to now UK/CMC/Para and GFS is weak and progressive.
  17. packbacker
    Weeklies are ridiculous the last week of Jan into Feb. Cold/snowy...like the GFS model. Fantasy models....
  18. packbacker
    DGEX been rock solid.
  19. packbacker
    North trend starts Wed. :-) Every run the GFS gets a hair slower swinging that trough through. It's getting crazy, by hour 60 you could see it was getting left behind though. I think 0z tonight the GFS steps closer to the Euro.
  20. packbacker
    Why I posted in this thread...garbage run with only 10-15" across our areas. LOL
  21. packbacker
    Latest...12z Para...
  22. packbacker
    We can be warm with blocking and crappy pac (+EPO/-PNA)...ala 2013. To be honest, I really thought/think the PDO will flex sometime this winter, probably later in Jan into Feb. But, that's probably wishful thinking....
  23. packbacker
    End of GEFS still shows nina forcing at 120E (snoozer)...but GEPS and CFS weeklies start to change that end of Jan. This is a pretty bad look when big low setup over AK....now can we pop a ridge and we get a aleutian low with pac ridge to setup after this? We shall see. If that low really does setup shop then we are in trouble and winter will be over....not saying it will but just if.
  24. packbacker
    Yeah...I think it's going to be warm day 10...all the ensembles agree on that. I think if the pattern changes it will be after the 20th. Though if the -EPO holds then we can get more cold fronts that swing through.
  25. packbacker
    It's awesome when JI trolls us....especially when he tells us how great the GFS is.
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