packbacker

FWIW....Weeklies still show early Feb back to AK ridging and shows building poleward.  Keeps it through end of Feb too.  

Can we get this to dig down to TX then swing through

21 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

So we have 3 chances of snow next week possibly: clipper, coastal storm, frontal passage. No, no, sprinkles, is how those will work for upstate.

actual southern slider next Fri/Sat= rain! So I wouldn't get excited if I lived in the CLT to GSP corridor !

Warm rain isn't exciting?  I think it's great.  got some nice 60F showers today.  Will have to cut the AC on tonight.

You guys (GSP to CLT to GSO) always rock Feb...it's coming.

3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

At least RAH mentioned the possibility:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

A rather quiet albeit cold stretch of weather expected during this
period, with high pressure predominant at least through the first
half of next week. In general, expect afternoon temperatures to top
out in the 30s/40s, with the warmest day of the period being
Saturday thanks to leftover moisture/cloud cover across the area
from the departing area of low pressure. Overnight lows through the
middle of next week will remain below freezing area wide, bottoming
out in the teens/20s just prior to dawn each morning.

Precipitation chances are not plentiful during this stretch, as the
forecast area remains just west of the right exit quadrant of the
upper level jet. A frontal boundary will move through Tuesday
afternoon/evening attempting to carry some light precipitation east
of the mountains, but confidence in this occurring is not high. For
now, have left off PoPs siding with the drier frontal passage as
seen in the GFS solution, but these may need to be increased if
guidance trends more toward the ECMWF over the next few runs.

 

Past few runs the EPS has gotten the surface low a little further SE towards the carolina's...

Be nice if the EPS would get some green colors going on tomorrows run.  Nice event for the NE.

12z EPS definitely trended better with the h5 low trying to dig further southwest.   Had maybe a dozen members with some snow for eastern NC, though most are light.  The control run was a little more beefy then the Op.

2 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

Wow Pack. You been taking snow deprivation therapy!? Well come to think of it, less than an inch is slowly becoming a solid event for central NC.

Hah...we have been on a snow diet of late so any little cracker crumb of snow is going to be legit.  Last week was nice...I had probably 1.5" and it was all snow, really cold, I actually swept it off my driveway.  Give me one more of those and it will be a great winter.

6 minutes ago, PGAWx said:

What's the timing for this?

Day 5-6.  

Just now, FallsLake said:

You, up to RDU, did better than me. I got 0.5" or so. Still with the way things went, I felt lucky to get that.   

No complaints...solid event for us.   Would happily take a dusting next week.  

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

How'd that last coastal pan out for RAH?

We got our biggest snowfall in 3 years.:.officially it was 0.9”.  

Euro with a I-95 special in NC 2-4”.  Gets 2” almost to ColdRain.  Primarily a NS low dropping down, but there is some southern energy that is trying to join in.  

10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

 

I think we get one more slime chance and then we'll have to wait until February. Even JB is talking warm for the later part of the month; and when he talks warm he's usually right.  

Sat through end of next week looks really cold.  Hopefully it’s just a couple of weeks of AN.  

This is an impressive cut-off on the Euro and look at that block   

10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

We haven’t even gotten under a WSW yet. We’re usually good for at least a couple of non-verifying WSWs.  Give it time.  Besides, 70s in winter suck.  Everyone knows this.

By the way, if you haven’t seen Red or Red 2, you’re missing out.  Great movies.

Last week was a nice event, was nice to get a few hours of accumulating snow.  Any snow is nice, realize times have changed big snows don’t occur here anymore.  

Havent seen Red, will check it out.  

37 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

If it's not gonna snow, I wish it would just be in the 70s! Dry cold sucks!

We already got an 1” of snow...Raleigh doesn’t do multiple events in a winter.  Bring on 70’s.

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

CR, that is the best post in the last 5 years! Way to go!!!

And I thought yesterdays models runs were warm...could be worse.

35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Still not seeing any long lasting torches lasting more than a few days! Havnt checked the 926 hour GFS though!

Open your eyes...it’s not difficult to find.  Take your pick...buffet style.   Get the sunscreen out

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

Where did I say you have to ask permission? Post what you want, as will I. I know you have caught some flack for posting warm maps over the years but that wasn't the point of post. I read what you posted and I'm criticizing the lead time. I'm on record for not being a fan of the weeklies and I'll continue that until they have some skill past 2 weeks. 

Finally a post that isn’t worthless from you.  I agree the weeklies have low skill, just talking weather on a otherwise boring weather day. 

4 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

My intelligence is just fine someone is a little sensitive today. My post was solely on the 4 week map you posted. No point in posting anything over 10 days.  

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Your user name is packbacker. Since you back the pack you should know that at State games they play and sing old McDonald had a farm. So you really want to come at me with a southern poke? Come on 

LOL...Evidently you can’t read.   Pathetic.  

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Haha you guys

Edited my original post to make it a little more clear...forget the intelligence of a couple of trolls is highly questionable.  

7 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

You know it’s been a solid cold winter thus far when some are having to post 720 hour maps to show a flip to warm. 

That’s not even remotely close to what I posted, actually the opposite.  Why don’t you try some basic reading comprehension.  You and Franklin need to go back to grade school.  

I said we flip to warm end of next week and the weeklies show pattern getting back to a colder pattern in early Feb.  The map I posted clearly shows the -EPO getting going again for a colder pattern in the east as we get into Feb.

You two aren’t helping the stereotype of southerners....LOL

Just now, franklin NCwx said:

^lol.. 720 hours.  All ensembles locked in on a -ao in 8 days.

What’s so funny?

Yep...we flip warm around the 18-20th, couple weeks to reload and early Feb we are back at it...-EPO colder in the east pattern.

After Dec 25th we were AN, then we have almost 4 weeks of solid BN temps, assuming we flip warm end of next week.   A 2 or even 3 week break isn’t all that bad if we can get another 2-3 week window in Feb.

48hr h5 trend...LOL  Going to be no living with Mack and ColdRain after this.