winter_warlock

Already?? We still have 120+ hours to go

Not for me it's not

Hmmmm not good unless ur in mountains

Amen brother!!!

Me too!!

I'm eating thanksgiving dinner, the 18z runs will be dessert... Hopefully

I'm just glad the gem still has the storm 5 days out lol

From sterling this morning.... Forecast confidence remains very low Tuesday into Wednesday. On the synoptic scale, a shortwave embedded within a much broader longwave trough encompassing much of the CONUS is expected to lift northeastward out of the base of the longwave trough and interact with what should be a sharp baroclinic zone in place along the East Coast. Various sources of both deterministic and ensemble guidance have shown a large amount of spread with respect to what will ensue with this system. Some solutions have shown large precipitation totals, while others have shown little precipitation at all. Some show snow, some show a wintry mix, and others show plain rain. As is typical, temperatures look to be colder the further north and west one goes, so those locations have a greater chance to experience wintry precipitation if it were to occur. It`s still too early to get into details at this point, but this system will be one to monitor over the next several days, as it has at least a chance to bring portions of the area their first wintry precipitation event of the season.

Still hot 16 minutes till midnite so.Ill say it a lil early lol... HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE!!

We can only hope

Last frames of cmc

If we can just get GFS and cmc to shift about 50 to 100 miles east a lot of us would be in business.... Still 130+ hours out.

Cmc

Agreed!!

Well still 5.5 days out so a lot of model runs to go.. models will change a few times more I'm sure

144... It's shit unless ur in the mountains or nw Pa and nw NY state lol

138 gfs. Ehhhh

Yup the more amped it gets the warmer it gets unfortunately

Gfs hr 132

Gfs hr 126

00z ICON

The best winter storm I ever saw was the blizzard of 79. Presidents Day storm no 1 .. I was only 12 at the time... At the height of the storm bwi got 17 inches in 5 hours.. snowfall rates of 3.5 inches an hour. I remember waking up about 3 am looking outside and it was snowing so hard the whole street was lit up. I was 12. And even after all the storms I've seen since.... I still haven't seen it snow as hard as it did in that storm. I remember my next door neighbor measured 24 inches. That blizzard is what got me hooked on the weather and meteorology. Been studying it ever since

FWIW..... JMA. Hour 144 and 168

One thing I have learned the last 15 years being with AmericanWx..... Ji doesn't sugar coat anything!!

Well Randy u might wanna cross ur fingers bro just in case..... And a prayer wouldn't hurt lol