psuhoffman

Note the indications of more NS involvement showing up evident from the blue extending into central Canada. I said that bothered me when I saw it showing up a few weeks ago and it was the first step to the pattern breaking down. That increased NS involvement eventually screwed with the -nao. It’s showing up again at the same lead time in the same way.

Schweitzer, Redd, Revelstoke, Panorama and Sun Peaks are all on ikon. If my brother can get a whole week off next winter some combo of those would be my preferred trip. Southwest has flights to Spokane.

I think it won’t be as bad as the last few years. This year was the final kick in the nuts for most I think. For the last 5 years many who tried to deny how bad it’s getting have said the same thing “wait for a Nino”. That was their hold lot hope. Well we got one, and with a -QBO and solar max no less! And it was the warmest winter ever with below normal snow. With that last false hope rug pulled I think at this point all except the most insanely delusional few have come to accept our new reality and that 90% of our winters are just going to suck. Sure once in a while we will luck into a 2010 or 2014 or a 2016 type storm but for the most part we should enter every winter with the expectation it’s going to suck ass with way less than “average” snowfall and so as those new expectations set it people won’t complain as much once we all come to accept we are what NC was 20 years ago and snow just isn’t normal here anymore. The good news is we will eventually get a period with more above Normal snowfall seasons. I grunted it! That’s because at this rate in 20 years our average snow will be like 7” and then these dreg winters will just be normal!

regardless of the snow maps temps aren’t supportive of accumulating snow for 90% of this region. And that’s on the typically coldest model!

Next year might be perfect to hit up the powder highway resorts in BC!

If the kids ski, something to keep in mind Copper Colorado is the best western resort I think for beginners and mixed ability levels because the mountain progresses from beginner to expert right to left looking at the mountain. And it’s one of the few big mountains where they have a lot of top to bottom runs for beginners. It’s also close to the towns of Frisco, Dillon Breckenridge and Vail and not too far from Denver. And if you want to hit up more than one mountain Winter Park and A basin are within reasonable drives and all 3 are on the ikon pass. Definitely get some kind of pass the window rates are outrageous! It doesn’t get the most snow. About 300” a year. Some places out west are over 400. But if you’re planning ahead for a set week anywhere out west above like 7000 feet will have a lot of snow on the ground.

Depends what your goal is. If you just want to see the most snow during a dump then the Tahoe or Mammoth Lakes areas are best. But yes more expensive but for be the biggest issue is it’s also very windy which imo can make heavy snow less aesthetically pleasing. but it also means everything closes including ski resorts. For me if I’m going out west I want to combine my snow chase with a ski trip. Jackson Hole is a nice town in a snowstorm. Was in Revelstoke when they got like 20” over a few years back. Steamboat is the best Colorado ski town for a snowstorm where they get a lot of snow in town also. But honestly if you just want a snowstorm chase, at some point there will be a big snow in northern New England. If you like tracking the storm and using radar to pin down a heavy band during..that’s a better bet. Out west it’s all topography and radar is useless.

@Ji even this isn’t enough to get snow anywhere near us. It’s all in northern New England. You would think we would be worried about suppression in this look!

This is pathetic

Sure, but only to the same degree that I tracked last year and for the last couple weeks. I’ll take a quick look at the guidance from time to time, but with no expectation of anything good.

We just can’t know

We learned our lesson. Every winter is gonna suck.

IMO it depends on ability level. A-basin has some amazing expert level trees over on the Pallavicini side...but they are extremely challenging. Copper has some better trees for advanced intermediates to advanced but not true expert level. Winter park has the best IMO of the 3 resorts you mentioned. WP has really nice trees in between some of the trails on Mary Jane and especially under the Eagle Wind lift.

That was as of a week ago...its been warm. But also, not sure if his data is the same, what I saw the NWS release might have included Alaska and Hawaii.

@powderfreak or anyone else.... I'm pushing hard in rehap from a knee injury to try to get back out by Easter this season...but is there enough base at Subarbush, Stowe, and Sugarloaf for there to be a decent April ski season this year?

I don't think the Wizards are going to win the championship this year

The pattern is changing... but I see some of the same flaws in the "better" pattern that has plagued us for years now even when we get a better longwave configuration. Add in the fact we are talking about late March and we're at the edge of when snow is even reasonably possible and that was before the current torch we've been stuck in for 9 years...I dunno man I am not saying the chances are 0. I realize crazy shit happens. Yes the pattern looks better. But by far the most likely outcome even if we do get a perfect track wave is just another perfect track rainstorm. Snowshoe probably gets a big snowstorm late March or early April. This probably saves the spring ski season for New England...but I am skeptical this does much for us locally.

I heard the winter of 1784BC was biblical and a strong analog

Yea, I am definitely NOT saying this is climate change. I don't know. But there has been very little discussion around this phenomenon at all, and that surprises me. I think because it's being written off as part of the larger PDO cycle. And a LARGE part of the western trough eastern ridge is most definitely related to the PDO. Yes the pacific has spend the vast majority of the time in a configuration that is conducive to a western trough eastern ridge longwave pattern. But there is variance within that. Just like we don't have an eastern trough 100% of the time in a positive PDO there is variability to the pacific pattern in a -PDO. The issue is I've noticed that during the perhaps 30% of the time where the pacific longwave pattern is not such that should amplify a trough in the west, about half that time it still is. Waves are coming in off the pacific and just wanting to amplify in the west regardless of what the upstream pattern is. I am just trying to flag this and start a conversation about it since I think this is part of what's making this period even worse than a typical -PDO cycle. I threw out 2 factors I can think of. The SER being fed not just by the western pattern but also by the warmer waters downstream could be offering some resistance...and stronger waves coming in off the pacific perhaps making it more likely they amplify sooner and then get stuck in the mountain west due to feedback there. Then you get an awful feedback loop between these 2 factors where the SER slows down the waves some which are already stronger and then they amplify more which pumps the ridge in front more...and UGH. But I have no idea if that is it. But no one else is even talking about it at all and offering other ideas. I am open to any ideas. I am not really open to the "this isn't actually happening" arguments because I've seen it too often. The waves obviously eventually come east...and its not happening all the time, yes sometimes we get a perfect EPO/PNA ridge that forces a huge trough into the east at times...but quite often even when the longwave configuration in the central and eastern pac would suggest waves should kick east before amplifying they are still amplifying more west first which pumps a ridge in front which means even when they do kick east its not going to work for us because there is too much heat in front of them. I see this...and I see no discussion about it which is frustrating because above all else I want to learn and understand.

@jonjonCongrats, I've stopped in a couple times when I took the kids to Blackwater or Timberline but you weren't there...very nice place.

Here it is illustrated a different way. @brooklynwx99 Look at X and Y… it doesn’t matter Z is the same if ridge X trough Y equals trough Z AND trough X ridge Y STILL equals trough Z What pac long wave config doesn’t end up with a wave amplifying there??? or as @Ji said “what are we even doing here?”

We haven’t

Let me add to the last point…the waves will eventually progress east. But it doesn’t matter if they keep amplifying too much in the west FIRST and pumping heat ridges in front of them.

@brooklynwx99 @Ji @Terpeast This is an even better example of what I was talking about yesterday. This is before Ji’s “it has to be snow” wave. The ridging in front is the problem, ignoring the freaking crazy 50/50. But I get it there is a horrible air mass in front. So I’ll let that one go… Bit focus on the pacific and west coast progression here on this loop. That next wave should progress east. Look at the long wave pattern. That Ji wave is being absorbed into the 50/50 about to strengthen that. There is a perfect pac longewave configuration. But look what happened. Everything else in the pac progresses. The trough and ridge behind the wave move east. But the wave doesn’t. It’s dogging down and cutting off in the west and look it’s pumping another ridge ahead of it that’s going to link with the west based block and…we know the end. @brooklynwx99yesterday I showed this same thing on a gfs run and you said we just had to give it time and wait for the next wave to progress east but that was just an illusion because the run ended there. The next wave isn’t going to progress east either. The wavelengths in the west just adjust, broaden it shorten, as the waves amplify and get stuck in the west. I’m not interested in arguments if it’s happening. I’ve seen this time and again lately. I am interested in hypothesizing WHY that’s happening. The wavelengths to the west of these waves out west do not always support them digging into the west. But even when the pac pattern SHOULD kick the waves east the flow just compresses. My theory is that it’s not just the pac. That there is also downstream resistance in the flow. Maybe from the warmer than normal gulf and Atlantic. Also if the waves are coming in off the pacific more juiced up they could be amplifying sooner which could cause them to want to cut off in the mountain west due to feedback. I don’t KNOW. I’m just thinking wave physics and trying to figure out why something that shouldn’t based on the upstream wavelengths keeps happening. What’s weird to me is that no one else is talking about this. Just accepting it with no discussion of WHY!