psuhoffman

For now I’m hanging my hat on the fact the Atlantic looks good through day 10. After that hopefully it’s wrong. But the issue is it slides the tpv east. That pushes the NAO ridge east. We really need that to either cross the pole or drop. But I’m going to be mildly annoyed if we waste the first extended NAO ridging for 2 weeks then just as the pac gets better the Atlantic goes to crap.

That’s a colder look... but not as snowy typically. I preferred the seasonal temps with ridging over the top look better.

One positive sign so far is that there wants to be some blocking up top. When the Atlantic was hostile the epo took over. Now that the tpv is on that side there is ridging on the Atlantic side. So far there have been enough mitigating factors to prevent snow here. But if we keep a somewhat favorable blocky high latitude profile through prime climo that is unlikely to continue.

Eps looks good day 10...and the trough lingers because of it day 11-15, but I don’t like the overall look day 15. It will be really hard to sustain any cold with that look up top. Luckily guidance has very low skill there past day 10 and all the guidance agrees on a pretty good look day 10. Just have to hope the Atlantic doesn’t completely break down like the euro indicates because nothing supports the pacific becoming favorable enough absent any Atlantic help. Doesn’t mean the pac stays hostile, just it looks ambiguous and not overly hostile or helpful in the long range which given the very conflicted tropical signals makes perfect sense.

Naw we get big snows from storms that start out 300 miles north of Toronto and dive due south all the time. All you can take from that range and that crazy nonsense is the gfs thinks the amplification and blocking of the pattern is likely to continue.

No one mentioned it, probably because its worthless...but the euro weeklies did have a nice NAO signature straight through the whole run. Pacific is mediocre at best the whole time though.

Looking at the individual members, there is agreement on a big cutter day 9-11 and then most of the members that cause the "trough" look in the east after that are just cold and dry with a big high parked over the east. There are some wet members...but they differ on things and take another cutter over after that. There really is no support among either camp for a frozen event despite the h5 look. Its split between cold/dry and warm/wet.

Ideally that is how it works...creating a feedback loop in our favor.

sooner or later the wave train of 50/50's has to pay off!!! We only need a couple good hits to make a winter here.

Run flee scurry

Yep...it was an attempt to corral all the dumb into this one thread. ETA: just so a debate doesn't start up I know when this thread started it was dry...and it was worth noting it...but it was fairly typical variance that happens a couple times a decade and not the emergency situation worth derailing EVERY discussion in every thread one person was making it out to be.

it seemed like such a dire thing .. its not like typical cyclical climate variance could have solved such an emergency situation

When will we get a drought update?

You're welcome. As for deer my wife knows a trick using Irish spring soap. Seems the deer don't like the smell. She puts it up at the corners and they have not been a problem.

More recent pic...I need to catch up on weeding but have a 2 month old and I've been working long hours helping run a summer learning program.

I put a fence up around the garden. I lived the bottom foot with chicken fence to keep the smaller vermin out and then tucked the fencing underground about 6" for a foot to keep groundhogs from burrowing under. I also build a cage with bird netting for the strawberries. We haven't had an issue with the other berries. You can see in the background the strawberry cage. These are old from right after I finished laying out the garden and putting down the boxes and stone walkways. What is now the pumpkin patch is in the background.

Oh I know. I have a pretty large garden. Tomatoes, carrots, corn, peppers, raspberries, blueberries, watermelons, zucchini, green beans, snap peas, and 3 kinds of pumpkins. It's a pain when I have to water it all. But it's normal. There is a dry stretch almost every summer. Also sucks for my 2 acre lawn but there is nothing I can do about it. No way I am wasting that much water and overusing my well pump. Just have to hope it recovers when the rain comes again.

Typical cyclical patterns continue. We had a very wet spring. Now we are have a very typical summer dry spell that happens often. Some keep looking at qpf over too small timeframes to draw meaningful conclusions.

Don't feed the animals.

But that's pretty typical of a Nina winter.

Nina is typically dry here. We've had a two year Nina. It's ending now. We probably transition to a wetter long term pattern soon. It is typical cyclical variation. If this were to continue dry another 6-12 months then things would get serious and it would be a historically significant drought. I doubt that.

RIP

The problem with persistence based forecasting is you don't know when the pattern will break. And there can be wet periods embedded within longer term dry patterns. Some of us had over 1" qpf last week. Either way yes dry feeds back and can cause more dry but it can and will break and so all this dire saber rattling that it can't rain or snow because it's dry is overdone. Yes it's dry. No one is refuting that. But it's part of long term cyclical patterns. Dry wet it goes back and forth and will balance in the long run. This isn't anything out of the realm of normal long term variance. We have had droughts like this before and we will again. And it will end at some point.

Vice Regent says we're all gonna be under water. This guy thinks we're heading for scorched earth. Can we stick them in a room and let them fight it out?

You win. Your right. The earth is scorched. The apocalypse is upon us. It will never rain again. Fleas and ticks will rule the earth. Flee scurry run for our lives. The great dryness is upon us.