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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    The GEFS is trending the wrong way for them.
  2. psuhoffman
    The relaxation looks brief. By mid Feb we look right back into it. I guarantee if everything else there is correct that SE ridge won’t last long. plus even with that ridge the cold is pressing. Look where the boundary is. Looks like the pattern is rebooting only with a lot more cold to work with.
  3. psuhoffman
    We’re getting inside the range everything else started to fall apart. This one is trending better. I do think there is a limit to how far south this one can go given its trajectory.
  4. psuhoffman
    I’m not done yet
  5. psuhoffman
    I’m going to need some quiet time alone with this Euro run.
  6. psuhoffman
    ? Lol
  7. psuhoffman
    Yea the coastal gets suppressed but a nice front WAA thump. Ji: but we lost 18”, at this rate by tomorrow we’re going to owe it snow
  8. psuhoffman
    This one is coming across at a higher latitude...the blocking is relaxing... I do think there is a limit to how far south this gets suppressed...but if you told me we get no snow from this wave...I guess gun to my head...it gets squashed is still the bigger risk vs it cuts enough to be all rain.
  9. psuhoffman
    This one... we get to pick right? Isn’t that how it works?
  10. psuhoffman
    Geps trend last 4 runs... ok the south trend can stop now
  11. psuhoffman
    When's the snow gonna start?
  12. psuhoffman
    I said its complicated not it wont work. I see that option...I also could see that "capture" missing and the storm slides out. Both are possible permutations.
  13. psuhoffman
    just saw your surface map.... that is pretty textbook if it were not for that vortex over Maine I would say its bob chill face worthy...but that complicates things. Could squash the secondary development due east...we need it to gain a little latitude from where its at 144...not a lot but ideally we want it to move NE from there to off the delmarva then east. It might move due east under that vortex in NE
  14. psuhoffman
    @yoda Where is the secondary forming at 144?
  15. psuhoffman
    Ehh...what's it got going on over New England??? That is a bit too much... Love the h5 low placement but hard to see the coastal really amplifying much with that sitting on top of it. It would be CLOSE to something bigger but I dunno with that there. But were worrying about details too much for 144 hours. Not a bad thing to have something a little south when the other 3 globals were all a little north so far.
  16. psuhoffman
    That could even be a little too far south...depending on what the coastal does after. LOL
  17. psuhoffman
    Gefs 24 hour trend
  18. psuhoffman
    Yea man...I'm not buying these 995 primary nw of us...I'm willing to sacrifice the waa snow Sunday for a much bigger chance Monday Check out the changes at h5. This was a better run imo if we want to get the big coastal option.
  19. psuhoffman
    @Ji look at the h5...I actually like this CMC run better then 12z. The h5 tracked further south and more amplified...it was closer to a BIG storm for us imo just had the primary hold on slightly too long...but given the seasonal trend I would go against an over amplified primary into the ohio valley. The rest of the run was better...better h5 track, better cold press in front.
  20. psuhoffman
    The cold push trended south...even with the further north primary the temperatures (other then right as the primary jumps over us) are colder. NW of 95 stays all snow. But we kind of get screwed on precip...the initial WAA thump goes southeast of us (colder press suppresses that)...then the redevelopment is mostly north...we are in a screwzone of lighter precip in between.
  21. psuhoffman
    CMC has an even more aggressive cold push in front of the storm. But it also amplifies the primary a little too much and so the transfer happens a little slower and further north...Not the improvement I wanted to see but not a bad run either.
  22. psuhoffman
    ask me how much I care about the GFS qpf at 132 hours...go ahead I dare ya
  23. psuhoffman
    Two vorts one trough Lead wave is dying as it runs into the block...second wave re-amplifies and sparks a secondary coastal. This setup has happened before but its "complicated". I know I know...we dont do...but if we keep getting pretty darn good setups, even if complicated...eventually you would think law of averages would be on our side.
  24. psuhoffman
    ask me how much I care about the surface temp on the GFS at 132 hours. I dare ya
  25. psuhoffman
    last 5 gfs runs
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