psuhoffman

it was "ok". It got some WAA snows over our area. I guess the totals are measly but honestly I don't bother to look at that at those ranges. But again...the wave is falling apart as it tries to press east under the blocking...from 992 in KS to a 1009 shearing out mess near Detroit. It tried to secondary and was close to something nicer though. I was mostly kidding about "the one" stuff. I posted a couple times earlier on that threat...the setup had potential but it also shows some of the same limitations we have been suffering from all year. Look as the storm is crossing the plains...notice AGAIN the lack of a significant snow shield on the north side of the storm like we would expect from a decently amplified mid winter mid latitude system. This thermal profile is disgusting! There is no strong gradient...no thermal boundary to focus baroclinicity and amplify the surface system. And the system again looks more like what we expect from a late March/April storm and it starts to shear out as it heads east absent a nice boundary for it to focus along and amplify. What we would need for this to work is to get the upper system to crash in and phase with a secondary along the coast kind of like the euro op did but a little further south. That is not off the table...there are hints at that progression in the guidance...but again its a situation where we are left needing the complicated intricate 10,000 steps all have to go right solution to make this work because the simple way to get snow...ride a system along the thermal boundary and get some nice WAA up over a cold air mass is removed from the equation. Remember Bob used to say we do simple well...we don't do complicated. Well everything has to be complicated when you remove true cold from the equation.

I love your optimism I really do.

That is THE ONE lol. BTW I do remember the old 3rd wave rule HM was talking about. I had totally forgot about that from back before the GFS even existed in the old AVN/MRF days. I had considered the Thursday storm the "3rd wave" though...but I was counting that washed out POS that barely got some showers to Atlanta the other day. You could make a really strong argument that ushered in the new regime and that this storm tomorrow is wave 1.

Do you know why they aren't updating the GEFS?

Thursday was our best setup of the winter since the Dec 15 storm. More then just "not enough cold" goes into each specific event. There are lots of factors all playing a part. We could debate over which is the fatal flaw. My comments on the lack of cold are more emblematic of the entire winter fail so far. We have had multiple threads and overall what the common theme muting our chances each time is the lack of cold. And some have pointed out how dry it is...true, but I am convince, and I am not alone I know HM agrees, that the lack of a nice thermal gradient due the lack of cold is part of the reason storms aren't amplifying this year. But yes there are some very discreet unlucky timing issues that contributed to the fail Thursday. If you just glance at the look without looking at the details its a really nice setup. But there are a few warts that prevent it from being a DC snowstorm. That December storm btw was a REALLY good setup. I know the blocking was north of ideal but there was a block north of AK and a 50/50 and a north greenland block and the result was excellent suppressed flow ahead of a really amplified wave coming across. That DC had a total fail was really really amazing imo. I am not saying that was necessarily a lock for a MECS or HECS...but to get no snow from that was really impressive in a horrifying kind of way.

Let it go.

When the eps looks great often that one member that sucks is right. But why can’t it ever be this one that’s right...??? it hits DC with all 3 waves. Like 2-4, 2-4, 20”

Exactly...I can’t even come up with a decent justification for that nonsense.

@WxUSAF plus if you go and don’t get it you still have a shot if you stop them there. That was one of the worst calls ever.

I thought it was pretty gutless at the time too. Cutting through the crap you either have a shot at a TD one play from the 9. Or you have to get a stop then drive the whole field with no timeouts in under 2 mins and get a TD anyways. That doesn’t seem like a hard choice to me. I was shocked they kicked.

This post sponsored by big overreactions incorporated...our motto is why be measured when you could fly off the handle. What’s the worse that could happen.

The phasing of that TPV with both waves to our northeast sets up the next wave.

Yea and it’s right to be skeptical. But the signal is there and sooner or later it will snow again. Hopefully sooner.

Honestly TN might be too south in this flow. Of course we are too far out to know exactly where the suppression sets up. Gfs is less so then the euro. But in Thursday’s setup for instance, the runs that crushed us had the primary get up into KY/WV or even Ohio. We’ve had big snowstorms from a NW track primary in blocking before. Obviously details we won’t know from range effect each variable and the ideal track.

Look at this BS. The remnants of the early week storm is still sitting just to our northeast as the Thursday wave passes to our south. They actually end up phasing into a bomb in the Atlantic. Lol. When I started to see that wave hanging around longer and longer I dismissed that it would slow to the necessary amount to become this much of an impediment. But it did. An amazing error in timing across all guidance really but especially the gfs.

That’s too north but not by as much as you would think. Given the blocking suppressed flow we want a primary to get into southern Ohio and jump to off the VA capes for a flush hit.

My rule on the euro worked again. Next time it shows snow and the gfs dosent...the euro will cave EVERY model showed snow for DC 4 days out in December and it still failed! Lol

GFS gets too much weight because it’s the most frequent the first every cycle and most available. Imagine had we swapped the JMA and GFS the last 48 hours! We never would have felt the way we did. But in reality the preponderance of evidence would have been the same.

I’ve let this one go. It’s cathartic. But will never stop tracking and analyzing

We knew we needed that primary to get into WV or OH in this setup because of the suppressive flow. Let’s not act like we thought a typical progressive wave pattern track would work here. Different setup. Just like in a progressive pattern a primary tracking to our west would be no good. Each setup has different variables.

I don’t think that tpv is the issue. It’s behind the trough axis. It’s close but so long as it’s behind it’s not compressing that much. It’s not helping unless it dives in behind and phases though. But the bigger issue is the spacing (or lack of) between the waves off the coast and Thursday’s storm. The ridge to the west is too close also.

No they don’t, and I don’t blame anyone for not giving a crap what I have to say at this point..., but here is the deal. Back on the horse. Analysis. Not using clown snow maps lol. this is the setup for day 4 and then day 8 with key features identified As I said it’s almost a replay do over. The pattern sort of hit the pause/reset button because of the amplification of the Thursday wave delaying the eventual progression. Btw it’s possible if that were to happen with each wave we get through the “reboot” period without ever having the pattern break down before what could evolve mid Feb but one step at a time and that’s rather hopeful but it’s on the table. So what are the difference that could lead to a better outcome day 8. Frankly both look good at a quick glance. It’s not like Thursday is an awful look. But when you zoom in the spacing issue becomes apparent. The wave in front has slowed significantly in the last 72 hours. The ridge behind has shifted east slightly. The combo is compressing the flow around our wave and limiting its ability to amplify. Looking at day 8 the spacing seems better. What sticks out to me is the block is weaker, it’s more just a ridge in northern Quebec by then but that’s fine it’s done it’s dirty work and set up the suppressed flow across the Conus and the 50/50s. The 50/50 is exiting though and there is more space between the waves here on both sides! Don’t mind the lesser amplitude of the wave that’s mostly due to the longer lead time washing things a bit. All features are more muted on ensembles at range. Flashing ahead to the critical moment we need amplification as the wave crosses our longitude you can see the difference with the spacing. All that said...the issues to be careful of here are that the spacing could change. It looked better for Thursday around day 8-10 too then the wave in front slowed down. Also like I’ve said were in a double bind so if the spacing is too great we could go the other way and get rain. But that look there is worthy of interest. It’s basically a do over of Thursday’s setup and I was in love with that look from range so I would by a hypocrite to crap on this next one. Let’s try take 2.

The Cubs and Red Sox finally won a World Series in my lifetime. We just have to keep at it.